Victory in the fight against climate change would give the Middle East and Africa the biggest economic boost, a new study finds.
By the same token, however, some Middle East economies would be hit especially hard if global warming gets out of control.
In the most extreme case, a typical economy in the region would be more than 20 per cent smaller by 2100 than if emissions are reined in.
And the 174-country University of Cambridge research shows how vital it will be for the region to adapt to more extreme weather.
In a worst-case scenario for CO2 emissions, more resilience could be the difference between an economic hit of less than 1 per cent and about 10 per cent per year in several Middle East countries by 2050.
The UAE is among the Middle East countries that have the most to gain from an adaptation push, figures from the study analysed by The National show.
Scientists warn that people’s ability to withstand extreme heat could be pushed to its limit in hot countries, which are also vulnerable to drought.
Issues of particular concern in the Middle East include lack of water, pressure on food supplies, reduced seawater quality and worsening heat stress, diseases and allergies – all of which can damage the economy.
Last year’s Cop28 summit in Dubai ended with agreements to slash global CO2 emissions and focus resilience efforts on water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, poverty and cultural heritage.
“No country is immune from the impact of climate change if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed,” said Kamiar Mohaddes of Cambridge Judge Business School, a co-author of the new study.
“Countries situated in hotter climates and those classified as low income likely face disproportionately higher income losses. However, countries in colder climates are not spared from the effects of climate change.
“Our findings emphasise the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to minimise these negative income effects.”
Best and worst cases
The study looks at several scenarios, ranging from a continued rise in fossil fuel use to a world where global warming is kept to 1.5°C, the goal of the Paris Agreement.
In that best-case scenario, most countries are better off by 2050 than if the trends of the past half-century continue, but the gains are not evenly spread.
The average African country has an extra 0.31 per cent of GDP per year, with Middle East countries gaining 0.27 per cent – figures worth many billions of dollars. The rest of the world sees smaller gains.
However, in a worst-case climate scenario, an annual hit of 8.1 per cent to Middle East economies is outweighed only by losses in North America.
The worst case assumes, however, that countries move slowly to prepare for hotter weather. In that event the world's economy could shrink by 24 per cent by 2100.
In a world of "faster adaptation", those losses are drastically reduced.
An annual GDP loss of 9.6 per cent per year in the UAE would be cut to 0.3 per cent, with similar potential savings in Saudi Arabia and Oman.
The UAE's adaptation plan includes policies to expand the country's mangroves, which act as both natural flood defences and carbon sinks.
As global warming accelerates, its impact on the economy “will be more detrimental than in the past” unless countries act quickly, the study's authors from Cambridge and the International Monetary Fund warn.
“Our findings emphasise the importance of mitigating climate change and implementing adaptation measures to minimise these negative effects,” they say.
“However, even with adaptation policies, the long-term growth effects of climate change are likely to persist, particularly in countries with hotter climates and lower incomes.”
The study Rising Temperatures, Melting Incomes: Country-Specific Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Scenarios, by Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi, is published in the journal Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.
Francesco Totti's bio
Born September 27, 1976
Position Attacking midifelder
Clubs played for (1) - Roma
Total seasons 24
First season 1992/93
Last season 2016/17
Appearances 786
Goals 307
Titles (5) - Serie A 1; Italian Cup 2; Italian Supercup 2
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The rules of the road keeping cyclists safe
Cyclists must wear a helmet, arm and knee pads
Have a white front-light and a back red-light on their bike
They must place a number plate with reflective light to the back of the bike to alert road-users
Avoid carrying weights that could cause the bike to lose balance
They must cycle on designated lanes and areas and ride safe on pavements to avoid bumping into pedestrians
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SupplyVan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELaunch%20year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2029%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MRO%20and%20e-commerce%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
U19 World Cup in South Africa
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE squad
Aryan Lakra (captain), Vriitya Aravind, Deshan Chethyia, Mohammed Farazuddin, Jonathan Figy, Osama Hassan, Karthik Meiyappan, Rishabh Mukherjee, Ali Naseer, Wasi Shah, Alishan Sharafu, Sanchit Sharma, Kai Smith, Akasha Tahir, Ansh Tandon
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Envi%20Lodges%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Noelle%20Homsy%20and%20Chris%20Nader%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hospitality%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%20to%2015%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%20of%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
