Climate change is set to have a dramatic impact on where malaria is prevalent, with current hotspots improving but new areas affected, a study has revealed.
Hotter and drier temperatures will lead to a reduction in mosquito breeding grounds in Africa, while areas currently unaffected, such as southern Europe, will become susceptible.
Researchers have studied the impact of rainfall and water flows, which have caused flooding and led to the creation of surface water suitable for breeding mosquitoes, which transmit malaria.
The study, entitled Future Malaria Environmental Suitability in Africa is Sensitive to Hydrology and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, reveals climate change has already caused a four-fold increase in mosquito-friendly hotspots and created conditions for breeding grounds in places near rivers, such as the Nile, which have been malaria-free for the past few decades.
Using the new hydrology-driven model for predicting the effects of climate change on malaria transmission will mean more targeted interventions to control the disease can be used in at-risk areas.
Dr Mark Smith, an associate professor in water research at the School of Geography in Leeds, England, and lead author of the study, has been working in the field of malaria research for 15 years in Tanzania and Zambia.
He told The National the research will enable health agencies to identify mosquito-friendly areas and which interventions to use.
“This will give us a more physically realistic estimate of where in Africa is going to become better or worse for malaria,” he said.
“As increasingly detailed estimates of water flows become available, we can use this understanding to direct prioritisation and tailoring of malaria interventions in a more targeted and informed way. This is really useful given the scarce health resources that are often available.
“Our model says even at present day there are almost four times more people living in potentially malaria endemic areas than we would have thought. In the future we expect that to change, we expect to see a decrease in the areas suitable for malaria but those areas that are suitable are still around rivers and that is where the cities are.
“Those cities are going to expand massively in population and we are going to see a huge increase in the number of people in those areas driven by population growth.”
Malaria is a climate-sensitive, vector-borne disease that caused 608,000 deaths among 249 million cases in 2022.
Dr Smith said the research found the number of months suitable for transmission is set to increase.
He said the work has also highlighted the role of waterways such as the Zambezi river and the Nile in the spread of the disease.
“We expect to see southern Europe increasing in suitability for malaria,” he said.
“We have looked at the length of transmission seasons, the number of continuous months suitable for transmission and we are seeing a likely increase in areas like southern Europe. We are also seeing locally acquired cases in the US, in Florida and Texas.”
Last year, scientists at Abu Dhabi's Forecasting Healthy Futures summit revealed malaria was re-emerging in countries such as Greece where it had been previously eradicated and there had been localised outbreaks in Europe and Japan.
In the report published on Wednesday, the researchers predict that the hot and dry conditions brought about by climate change in Africa, where 95 per cent of the world’s cases are reported, will lead to an overall decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025.
The new hydrology-driven approach also shows that changes in malaria suitability are seen in different places and are more sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought.
It also found that projected increases in areas such as South Africa are now seen to follow watercourses such as the Orange river.
Dr Smith said while it was positive news for the impact of malaria on Africa, climate change will bring new problems.
“What we are seeing on balance is a decrease in suitable areas in Africa but when it is too hot or too dry for the malaria parasite you are in all kinds of trouble for other things like agriculture and water availability, even dengue,” he said.
“As malaria decreases you see a swing towards dengue. It is quite a scary future when it is too hot and dry for malaria.”
Previous models have used rainfall totals to indicate the presence of surface water suitable for mosquitoes breeding, but the research led by the University of Leeds used several climatic and hydrological models to include real-world processes of evaporation, infiltration and flow through rivers.
“The key advancement is that these models factor in that not all water stays where it rains, and this means breeding conditions suitable for malaria mosquitoes too can be more widespread – especially along major river floodplains in the arid, savannah regions typical of many regions in Africa," said co-author of the study Prof Chris Thomas, of the University of Lincoln.
“What is surprising in the new modelling is the sensitivity of season length to climate change. This can have dramatic effects on the amount of disease transmitted.”
Simon Gosling, professor of climate risks and environmental modelling at the University of Nottingham, co-wrote the study and helped to co-ordinate the water modelling experiments. “Our study highlights the complex way that surface water flows change the risk of malaria transmission across Africa, made possible thanks to a major research programme conducted by the global hydrological modelling community to compile and make available estimates of climate change impacts on water flows across the planet," he said.
“Although an overall reduction in future risk of malaria might sound like good news, it comes at a cost of reduced water availability and a greater risk of another significant disease, dengue.”
The researchers hope further advances in their modelling will allow for even finer details of waterbody dynamics which could help to inform national malaria control strategies.
“We're getting to the point soon where we use globally available data to not only say where the possible habitats are, but also which species of mosquitoes are likely to breed where," Dr Smith said.
"This will allow people to really target their interventions against these insects.”
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The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
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What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
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• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
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The five pillars of Islam
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
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THE BIO
BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
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Started: 2021
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
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1. Fasting
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Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
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Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
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Rating: 2/5
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- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
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