Climate change is set to have a dramatic impact on where malaria is prevalent, with current hotspots improving but new areas affected, a study has revealed.
Hotter and drier temperatures will lead to a reduction in mosquito breeding grounds in Africa, while areas currently unaffected, such as southern Europe, will become susceptible.
Researchers have studied the impact of rainfall and water flows, which have caused flooding and led to the creation of surface water suitable for breeding mosquitoes, which transmit malaria.
The study, entitled Future Malaria Environmental Suitability in Africa is Sensitive to Hydrology and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, reveals climate change has already caused a four-fold increase in mosquito-friendly hotspots and created conditions for breeding grounds in places near rivers, such as the Nile, which have been malaria-free for the past few decades.
Using the new hydrology-driven model for predicting the effects of climate change on malaria transmission will mean more targeted interventions to control the disease can be used in at-risk areas.
Dr Mark Smith, an associate professor in water research at the School of Geography in Leeds, England, and lead author of the study, has been working in the field of malaria research for 15 years in Tanzania and Zambia.
He told The National the research will enable health agencies to identify mosquito-friendly areas and which interventions to use.
“This will give us a more physically realistic estimate of where in Africa is going to become better or worse for malaria,” he said.
“As increasingly detailed estimates of water flows become available, we can use this understanding to direct prioritisation and tailoring of malaria interventions in a more targeted and informed way. This is really useful given the scarce health resources that are often available.
“Our model says even at present day there are almost four times more people living in potentially malaria endemic areas than we would have thought. In the future we expect that to change, we expect to see a decrease in the areas suitable for malaria but those areas that are suitable are still around rivers and that is where the cities are.
“Those cities are going to expand massively in population and we are going to see a huge increase in the number of people in those areas driven by population growth.”
Malaria is a climate-sensitive, vector-borne disease that caused 608,000 deaths among 249 million cases in 2022.
Dr Smith said the research found the number of months suitable for transmission is set to increase.
He said the work has also highlighted the role of waterways such as the Zambezi river and the Nile in the spread of the disease.
“We expect to see southern Europe increasing in suitability for malaria,” he said.
“We have looked at the length of transmission seasons, the number of continuous months suitable for transmission and we are seeing a likely increase in areas like southern Europe. We are also seeing locally acquired cases in the US, in Florida and Texas.”
Last year, scientists at Abu Dhabi's Forecasting Healthy Futures summit revealed malaria was re-emerging in countries such as Greece where it had been previously eradicated and there had been localised outbreaks in Europe and Japan.
In the report published on Wednesday, the researchers predict that the hot and dry conditions brought about by climate change in Africa, where 95 per cent of the world’s cases are reported, will lead to an overall decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025.
The new hydrology-driven approach also shows that changes in malaria suitability are seen in different places and are more sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought.
It also found that projected increases in areas such as South Africa are now seen to follow watercourses such as the Orange river.
Dr Smith said while it was positive news for the impact of malaria on Africa, climate change will bring new problems.
“What we are seeing on balance is a decrease in suitable areas in Africa but when it is too hot or too dry for the malaria parasite you are in all kinds of trouble for other things like agriculture and water availability, even dengue,” he said.
“As malaria decreases you see a swing towards dengue. It is quite a scary future when it is too hot and dry for malaria.”
Previous models have used rainfall totals to indicate the presence of surface water suitable for mosquitoes breeding, but the research led by the University of Leeds used several climatic and hydrological models to include real-world processes of evaporation, infiltration and flow through rivers.
“The key advancement is that these models factor in that not all water stays where it rains, and this means breeding conditions suitable for malaria mosquitoes too can be more widespread – especially along major river floodplains in the arid, savannah regions typical of many regions in Africa," said co-author of the study Prof Chris Thomas, of the University of Lincoln.
“What is surprising in the new modelling is the sensitivity of season length to climate change. This can have dramatic effects on the amount of disease transmitted.”
Simon Gosling, professor of climate risks and environmental modelling at the University of Nottingham, co-wrote the study and helped to co-ordinate the water modelling experiments. “Our study highlights the complex way that surface water flows change the risk of malaria transmission across Africa, made possible thanks to a major research programme conducted by the global hydrological modelling community to compile and make available estimates of climate change impacts on water flows across the planet," he said.
“Although an overall reduction in future risk of malaria might sound like good news, it comes at a cost of reduced water availability and a greater risk of another significant disease, dengue.”
The researchers hope further advances in their modelling will allow for even finer details of waterbody dynamics which could help to inform national malaria control strategies.
“We're getting to the point soon where we use globally available data to not only say where the possible habitats are, but also which species of mosquitoes are likely to breed where," Dr Smith said.
"This will allow people to really target their interventions against these insects.”
Uefa Champions League last 16 draw
Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur
Basel v Manchester City
Sevilla v Manchester United
Porto v Liverpool
Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain
Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma
Chelsea v Barcelona
Bayern Munich v Besiktas
Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt
In Search of Mary Shelley: The Girl Who Wrote Frankenstein
By Fiona Sampson
Profile
More on animal trafficking
Black Panther
Dir: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o
Five stars
The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X
Price, as tested: Dh84,000
Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: Six-speed auto
Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm
Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
West Asia rugby, season 2017/18 - Roll of Honour
Western Clubs Champions League - Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens - Winners: Dubai Exiles; Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership - Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons; Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup - Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners up: Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership - Winners: Dubai Exiles; Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 1
Kane (50')
Newcastle United 0
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
EU's%2020-point%20migration%20plan
%3Cp%3E1.%20Send%20EU%20border%20guards%20to%20Balkans%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20%E2%82%AC40%20million%20for%20training%20and%20surveillance%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Review%20EU%20border%20protection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Reward%20countries%20that%20fund%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.%20Help%20Balkans%20improve%20asylum%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.%20Improve%20migrant%20reception%20facilities%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.%20Close%20gaps%20in%20EU%20registration%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E8.%20Run%20pilots%20of%20faster%20asylum%20system%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E9.%20Improve%20relocation%20of%20migrants%20within%20EU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E10.%20Bolster%20migration%20unit%20in%20Greece%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E11.%20Tackle%20smuggling%20at%20Serbia%2FHungary%20border%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E12.%20Implement%20%E2%82%AC30%20million%20anti-smuggling%20plan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E13.%20Sanctions%20on%20transport%20linked%20to%20smuggling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E14.%20Expand%20pilot%20deportation%20scheme%20in%20Bosnia%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E15.%20Training%20for%20Balkans%20to%20deport%20migrants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E16.%20Joint%20task%20forces%20with%20Balkans%20and%20countries%20of%20origin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E17.%20Close%20loopholes%20in%20Balkan%20visa%20policy%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E18.%20Monitor%20migration%20laws%20passed%20in%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E19.%20Use%20visa-free%20travel%20as%20leverage%20over%20Balkans%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E20.%20Joint%20EU%20messages%20to%20Balkans%20and%20countries%20of%20origin%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
Squad
Ali Kasheif, Salim Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdulrahman, Mohammed Al Attas, Abdullah Ramadan, Zayed Al Ameri (Al Jazira), Mohammed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammed Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Essa, Mohammed Shaker, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah) Walid Abbas, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli), Tariq Ahmed, Jasim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Muharami (Baniyas)
The Sky Is Pink
Director: Shonali Bose
Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf
Three stars
BRAZIL SQUAD
Alisson (Liverpool), Daniel Fuzato (Roma), Ederson (Man City); Alex Sandro (Juventus), Danilo (Juventus), Eder Militao (Real Madrid), Emerson (Real Betis), Felipe (Atletico Madrid), Marquinhos (PSG), Renan Lodi (Atletico Madrid), Thiago Silva (PSG); Arthur (Barcelona), Casemiro (Real Madrid), Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa), Fabinho (Liverpool), Lucas Paqueta (AC Milan), Philippe Coutinho (Bayern Munich); David Neres (Ajax), Gabriel Jesus (Man City), Richarlison (Everton), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Rodrygo (Real Madrid), Willian (Chelsea).
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi T10
*November 15 to November 24
*Venue: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
*Tickets: Start at Dh10, from ttensports.com
*TV: Ten Sports
*Streaming: Jio Live
*2017 winners: Kerala Kings
*2018 winners: Northern Warriors
VERSTAPPEN'S FIRSTS
Youngest F1 driver (17 years 3 days Japan 2014)
Youngest driver to start an F1 race (17 years 166 days – Australia 2015)
Youngest F1 driver to score points (17 years 180 days - Malaysia 2015)
Youngest driver to lead an F1 race (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest driver to set an F1 fastest lap (19 years 44 days – Brazil 2016)
Youngest on F1 podium finish (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest F1 winner (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest multiple F1 race winner (Mexico 2017/18)
Youngest F1 driver to win the same race (Mexico 2017/18)
RESULTS
Men – semi-finals
57kg – Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) beat Phuong Xuan Nguyen (VIE) 29-28; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) by points 30-27.
67kg – Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Huong The Nguyen (VIE) by points 30-27; Narin Wonglakhon (THA) v Mojtaba Taravati Aram (IRI) by points 29-28.
60kg – Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Amir Hosein Kaviani (IRI) 30-27; Long Doan Nguyen (VIE) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 29-28
63.5kg – Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Truong Cao Phat (VIE) 30-27; Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Norapat Khundam (THA) RSC round 3.
71kg – Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ) beat Fawzi Baltagi (LBN) 30-27; Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Man Kongsib (THA) 29-28
81kg – Ilyass Hbibali (UAE) beat Alexandr Tsarikov (KAZ) 29-28; Khaled Tarraf (LBN) beat Mustafa Al Tekreeti (IRQ) 30-27
86kg – Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Mohammed Al Qahtani (KSA) RSC round 1; Emil Umayev (KAZ) beat Ahmad Bahman (UAE) TKO round
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (All UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (11.30pm)
Saturday
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
FA Augsburg v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen (6.30pm)
SC Paderborn v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Monchengladbach (9.30pm)
Sunday
Cologne v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
Mainz v FC Schalke (9pm)
Stage 2 results
1 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 04:18:18
2 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:02
3 Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 00:00:04
4 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates
5 Rick Zabel (GER) Israel Start-Up Nation
General Classification
1 Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal 07:47:19
2 Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep 00:00:12
3 Arnaud Demare (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 00:00:16
4 Nikolai Cherkasov (RUS) Gazprom-Rusvelo 00:00:17
5 Alexey Lutsensko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 00:00:19
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 310hp
Torque: 366Nm
Price: Dh200,000
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Napoleon
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UAE'S%20YOUNG%20GUNS
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