In less than three weeks, India will elect a new prime minister. If the opinion polls are correct, the next occupant of the throne of Delhi is likely to be the leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, Narendra Modi.
Except that as one travels deep into the heartland of north India, it is remarkable to see that the gathering political wave in support of Mr Modi is heavily moderated by caste and other circumstances.
From Mathura, birthplace of the Hindu god Krishna, to Farrukhabad, named by a 18th century local chieftain in honour of the Mughal emperor of the time, to Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh (UP) state (which with 200 million people, is big enough to be a country in its own right) the galvanising pull of Hindu nationalist opinion in support of Mr Modi is discernible.
But just as you are about to believe in the existence of a “Modi wave”, you bump up against a much more ancient Indian code – caste – which even in the 21st century India remains determined by blood, kinship and community.
In parts of central Uttar Pradesh like Mainpuri, Etawah and Kannauj, for example, pro-BJP voters are heavily outnumbered by supporters of the Samajwadi Party (SP), currently in power in Uttar Pradesh, and which draws its support from a lower-caste group called the Yadavs.
Led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, a former chief minister of UP who is the sitting Member of Parliament from Mainpuri, the SP is pulling out all the stops to re-elect Mr Yadav’s daughter-in-law, Dimple Yadav, from Kannauj.
This was once the seat of Ram Manohar Lohia, the great Socialist leader in independent India, and which, since the Mughal era, has been famous for its native “ittar” or perfumery industry.
Mulayam’s son and Dimple’s husband, Akhilesh, was twice elected from this seat before he became the current chief minister of UP in 2012.
All in the family? Maybe, but in this case the dynastic succession is bound to the voters with the glue of caste. Eliminate caste, and the glue will fall apart.
This is why Akhilesh Yadav, campaigning with his wife in Kannauj last week, did nothing to moderate the exuberance of scores of young Yadav men who were yelling their support for “Dimple bhabhi” (sister-in-law, in Hindi), who drive their SUVs at top speed on village roads and generally bullying any poor cop who tries to maintain a semblance of dignity in the middle of this rowdy behaviour.
It now seems that the SP’s rowdies have been giving Kannauj such a hellish time since the party came to power in 2012, that Nirmal Tiwari, the candidate of the pro-Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), is giving Dimple Yadav a real fight.
In this political battle between the Dalits and the backward castes, the BJP candidate from Kannauj hardly has any name recognition.
Not even Mr Modi’s growing reputation elsewhere can salvage this electorate.
The story in the Gandhi family bastions of Rae Bareli, held by Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and Amethi, held by her son Rahul, is different, because the caste factor as well as pro-BJP feeling is subservient to Gandhi family loyalty in these parts.
Indira Gandhi used to contest from Rae Bareli, as did her husband before her. Indira’s son, Rajiv Gandhi, fought his elections from Amethi, as did his brother Sanjay.
(Sanjay’s son, Varun Gandhi, is fighting from the nearby constituency of Sultanpur on the BJP ticket, an unstoppable cocktail of Gandhi family plus Modi effect.)
This is a family fiefdom, not given to supporting an outsider – not even a Gujarati by the name of Mr Modi.
The BJP’s Smriti Irani is expected to cut into Rahul’s vote in Amethi partly because she retains some of the glamour from her former role as a TV star, because she is a woman and because the people of Amethi seem upset that the young Gandhi scion seems to have little time for them in recent months.
In fact, it is fascinating to see the BJP stitching up its own political strategy across the caste-ridden north Indian heartland, dipping into caste when need be, otherwise flaunting its credentials as a right-wing party that is determined to eliminate corruption, control price rises and reduce unemployment.
Modi, who belongs to the “teli” backward caste, in fact, doesn’t hesitate to tell his caste audiences in Bihar and UP that he is one of them. In Bihar, this is expected to pay huge dividends for the BJP, significantly reducing the voter base of chief minister and caste leader Nitish Kumar.
In Firozabad constituency, in neighbouring Agra, BJP candidate, S P Baghel, admits unhesitatingly that he abandoned the SP that supports the caste and moved to the BJP, bringing his caste followers with him.
As for the eastern Uttar Pradesh town of Azamgarh, a straightforward contest between the castes is on the cards, with the BJP fielding Ramakant Yadav against Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is also fighting from Mainpuri.
As the sun sets over golden wheat fields, still being harvested by hand in this part of the country, it is safe to say that north India's Muslims will vote in favour of a candidate that is best expected to challenge the BJP – until you hear some Muslims in Bijnor, Firozabad, Kanpur and Amethi say they may even vote for Mr Modi, possibly tempted by his promise of economic revival and growth.
Can the heavens fall? Can a political tsunami reach middle India, trumping all else? Can this Indian election upset the best-laid plans of political parties? India awaits an answer on May 16, in less than three weeks time.
Jyoti Malhotra is a political and foreign affairs analyst based in Delhi
On Twitter: @jomalhotra
RACECARD%20
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AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Steve Smith (capt), David Warner, Cameron Bancroft, Jackson Bird, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Shaun Marsh, Tim Paine, Chadd Sayers, Mitchell Starc.
Super 30
Produced: Sajid Nadiadwala and Phantom Productions
Directed: Vikas Bahl
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Pankaj Tripathi, Aditya Srivastav, Mrinal Thakur
Rating: 3.5 /5
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Name: Colm McLoughlin
Country: Galway, Ireland
Job: Executive vice chairman and chief executive of Dubai Duty Free
Favourite golf course: Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
Favourite part of Dubai: Palm Jumeirah
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing
In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.
While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.
In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all).
“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”
Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.
"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."
The%20specs
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Race card
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now