There are some who say that globalisation is in reverse, that declining global trade and rising protectionism are rolling back what many saw as an inexorable trend. Randel Carlock disagrees.
Prof Carlock is the Berghmans Lhoist Chaired Professor in Entrepreneurial Leadership at Insead and director of the Wendel International Centre for Family Enterprise. We spoke yesterday and he challenged the notion that the economic crisis has turned the tide of globalisation.
"I don't think you'll see globalisation reverse," he said. "You'll see a reduction in excesses and things that weren't profitable businesses." But globalisation, he reminded me, is not a new phenomenon. It's been around for 100 years or more. And technology has made the world more interlinked in a way that economic recession won't undo."
Teenagers in Tokyo, he said, often know about what's going in Manhattan before New Yorkers do.
You don't have to go too far to get a countervailing opinion. Fellow Insead professor Helmut Schutte, who is Senior Affiliate Professor of International Management at the French business school's campus in Singapore, told me earlier this month that growing protectionism was evidence of a retreat in globalisation. Yes, globalisation was an old phenomenon, he said, but one that ebbs and flows.
A century ago, he noted, the world's economy was even more globalised, as colonialism linked economies under the aegis of a handful of industrialised powers. Then came the First World War, the Great Depression and the Second World War, and globalisation was rolled back. Globalisation recovered thanks to international trade agreements and technology, but it is by no means inevitable, he said.
Clearly, this is a semantic debate that will require a better definition of the term globalisation. Prof Carlock said countries will now have to focus on what their natural competitive advantages are, like mining coal as opposed to, say, smelting aluminium, and trade for the rest.
Bad news for developing countries like this one hoping to diversify away from raw materials. Companies, too, will have to stick to their knitting, focusing on their niche and outsourcing the rest.
Whatever its impact on globalisation as a trend, global trade is collapsing. China's 26 per cent drop in exports and Germany's 35 per cent contraction in industrial orders demonstrate the trend. While the dollar slides, Angela Merkel is determined not to undermine the value of the Euro by borrowing and spending to alleviate the pain, reportedly saying that a strong Euro is in the interest of Europe.
Meanwhile, statistics suggest inflation in the EU is actually easing for the kind of transactions consumers notice most.
waynearonold@thenational.ae
Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Company%C2%A0profile
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RESULTS
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Masaali, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Almoreb, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Imprison, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m. Winner: Raahy, Adrie de Vries, Jaber Ramadhan.
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m. Winner: Cross The Ocean, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m. Winner: Sa’Ada, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash.
Tonight's Chat on The National
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