When it comes to nightmare scenarios, they don't come much scarier than the one that forecasts the property bubble in China is going to burst. If it happens, it will end the greatest story of economic growth yet.
The rise in property prices certainly has a lot of bubble characteristics. Many experts reckon China's biggest cities have experienced price rises of up to 50 per cent in the past two years.
Fears of a collapse in the property boom may be overstated, at least for the time being, and we can expect a gradual cooling of the market.
This is largely because the country still has a way to go in terms of urbanisation and because the government appears prepared to intervene if it starts to cool down too much, or if it starts to rise too quickly again.
After the sobering lessons of collapses in countries such as the US, Ireland and Spain, it's a vision that can rob the sleep of bondholders from Abu Dhabi to Perth, derailing the fragile economic recovery, even as it gains momentum.
There are serious pressures at play, particularly as China is awash with cash and property is one of the few vehicles for private investors.
Bank deposit rates do not offer serious returns for investors keen to earn a decent payback on their savings, the stock market is too geared towards big institutions, and most ordinary people are forbidden from investing abroad.
There are speculators in the market who believe they are guaranteed a profit on their property investments, displaying the kind of hubris that resulted in tears in Ireland three years ago.
State companies who received many subsidies through the stimulus plan after the global economic crisis also must look to property to keep the cash moving.
Mindful of the risks, the government has intensified property investment curbs, which seem to be paying off. While the Bank of England had only interest rates to protect itself, China has numerous measures it can employ.
There is simply not as much borrowing in China as there was in the UK or Ireland. Homebuyers are required to make a down payment of 40 per cent on their houses, and while prices are rising rapidly so are wages and salaries.
New home prices in Beijing rose 4.9 per cent last month from the same period a year earlier, easing from a 6.8 per cent gain in February, while houses in the Shanghai climbed 1.7 per cent last month, down from 2.3 per cent growth in February.
Of the 70 cities monitored by the government, 67 posted gains, down from 68 in the first two months.
Some 40 cities said last month they would restrict new home prices below annual economic and disposable per-capita income growth or keep them steady after the central government's measures to pull back housing values.
From Thursday, the government increased banks' reserve requirements to cool inflation. Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said monetary tightening would continue for "some time".
Gareth Leather, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, believes the market is not a bubble, despite the rise in house prices.
"We're not saying there are no dangers in the short term but the two main factors driving demand in China are different from those which we saw in Ireland, or Spain or the United States," said Mr Leather.
China is growing fast, but from a lower base. It is a highly populous, largely agricultural society that is being turned at high speed into an urban society.
By 2025, at least 220 Chinese cities are likely to have more than 1 million people. At present, China's urban population is more than 540 million, more than the total population of the enlarged EU at about 490 million.
"China has lots of urbanisation - there are people moving to the cities in big numbers," Mr Leather said. "And also there are people who want to move from old substandard housing to new housing. This is not what happened in Ireland, where the economic fundamentals were different."
All this investment in China will result in trillions of dollars being spent in the next few years, which will lead directly and indirectly to more than 50 per cent growth in demand for steel and strong energy demand and have repercussions well beyond China's borders.
business@thenational.ae
Florence and the Machine – High as Hope
Three stars
England squad
Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Dominic Bess, James Bracey, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Ben Foakes, Lewis Gregory, Keaton Jennings, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Craig Overton, Jamie Overton, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Dom Sibley, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Amar Virdi, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
All or Nothing
Amazon Prime
Four stars
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
Sour%20Grapes
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZakaria%20Tamer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESyracuse%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E176%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
The Beach Bum
Director: Harmony Korine
Stars: Matthew McConaughey, Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg
Two stars
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
World Sevens Series standing after Dubai
1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. England
4. Fiji
5. Australia
6. Samoa
7. Kenya
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Spain
11. Argentina
12. Canada
13. Wales
14. Uganda
15. United States
16. Russia
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Defending champions
World Series: South Africa
Women’s World Series: Australia
Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles
Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors
Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans
Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles
Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat
Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles
UAE National Schools: Al Safa School
International Invitational: Speranza 22
International Vets: Joining Jack
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013