The latest Opec+ deal had almost achieved the near-impossible. For now, an agreement hangs on the knife-edge of Mexican resistance. But despite all the attention on the next month or two, the accord's real importance is in the long term.
The proposed steep cut in Opec+ oil output, encouraged by a vacillating Trump administration, quickly reconciled Russia and Saudi Arabia after their price war began at the end of last month. And it had been advocated not just by famously independent Texas and Alberta, but by the largely oil-importing nations of the G20 in their communique on Friday.
The headline cut of 10 million barrels per day in May actually amounts to 7.4 million bpd on February levels – still an unprecedented reduction. It goes some way towards easing the glut arising from the coronavirus-induced demand collapse that might now have wiped out some 30 million bpd.
The US, Canada and other major producers outside Opec+ have not committed to cuts but they will suffer "rationing by the purse": low oil prices will force some of their fields to shut down. The US might lose three million bpd this year and Canada one million bpd or more.
Returning to co-operation required a change of heart in the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin's right-hand man, Igor Sechin, the head of state oil giant Rosneft, had argued for striking against US shale oil.
But the reality of very low oil prices and awkward access to markets for Russian oil companies and the state budget seems to have sunk in.
Riyadh and Moscow agreed to parity in the deal: each has a notional benchmark of 11 million bpd from which they should cut 2.5 million bpd. But Saudi Arabia was only producing 9.7 million bpd in February; it has benefited from its demonstrated ability to flood the market.
The UAE takes more of the burden, being judged on its constrained production in October 2018, not its more recent increase.
Kazakhstan and Brunei were eventually brought on board. But Mexico has so far held out because of president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's insistence that national oil company Pemex will increase production, even though with low prices and underinvestment, it clearly won't.
Mexico is famously the only sovereign oil producer to hedge most of its output for the year ahead, guaranteeing a minimal level of revenue.
However, next year is another matter – and the country badly needs prices to be on the way up by then.
If Mexico's position is accepted, other countries – for instance, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, or even Opec member Nigeria or Iraq – might plead special circumstances for a lower cut. Then the deal would have to be negotiated all over again, and probably become untenable.
Others have escaped by not showing up. Brazil, another big Latin American producer in the G20, has never been part of the Opec+ alliance, despite President Jair Bolsanaro's flirtation with joining Opec.
Ecuador dropped out of the group but it had struggled to export its crude anyway.
Mexico's intransigence is a get-out clause. The rest of Opec+, in particular Saudi Arabia and Russia, came under US pressure with complaints from legislators from oil-producing states, threatening tariffs, embargoes on US imports of their oil or even the withdrawal of military aid.
In light of the Mexican standoff, they can blame any failure on its president.
Still, the deal as it stands has to be viewed sceptically. It only comes into action in May and then is due to be scaled back from July onwards.
Russia hardly complied with cuts of 300 000 barrels per day over many months under the last Opec+ deal, so will it now cut more than two million bpd?
Iraq and Nigeria also did not comply fully. Apart from Oman, the other non-Opec countries in the previous deal mostly volunteered their natural decline in production. This time, they will have to make actual cuts.
Reality will play out more chaotically as storage in various places fills up. Some countries may find they can’t even sell the limited volumes they’re allowed.
Others may discover that they can export extra amounts and think it best to take their chance while the market exists. Libya, which is not bound by a target, might rebound if the blockade of its oil ports is lifted.
The G20 countries have been asked to fill their emergency storage to soak up some of the excess supply but only some 85 million barrels of space remains in OECD countries, of which 77 million of that in America strategic reserve.
So, unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in demand, the deal as it stands will just delay filling storage by a month or two. But it will have an important long-term effect: preserving spare capacity.
When mature or low-productivity wells and fields are shut in, it may never be economic to restart them. North American shale production will drop off sharply at current prices as the drilling and completion of new wells is unprofitable almost everywhere.
As the world economy recovers, this could mean a squeeze. Shale optimists may think production would bounce back at the right price but it's very unlikely that a consolidated and capital-starved industry will be able to grow again at the pace of recent years.
Now, assuming the Mexican hiccup is overcome and the rest of the deal holds together, major producers will retain a lot of spare powder rather than pumping flat-out.
The market has paid too much attention to the impossible burden on Opec+ in the near-term but not enough to the flexibility it regains in the long term.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
BeIN Sports currently has the rights to show
- Champions League
- English Premier League
- Spanish Primera Liga
- Italian, French and Scottish leagues
- Wimbledon and other tennis majors
- Formula One
- Rugby Union - Six Nations and European Cups
'Lost in Space'
Creators: Matt Sazama, Burk Sharpless, Irwin Allen
Stars: Molly Parker, Toby Stephens, Maxwell Jenkins
Rating: 4/5
Britain's travel restrictions
- A negative test 2 days before flying
- Complete passenger locator form
- Book a post-arrival PCR test
- Double-vaccinated must self-isolate
- 11 countries on red list quarantine
The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
Sreesanth's India bowling career
Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40
ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55
T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12
'The Lost Daughter'
Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson
Rating: 4/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
Results
4.30pm Jebel Jais – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (Turf) 1,000m; Winner: MM Al Balqaa, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Qaiss Aboud (trainer)
5pm: Jabel Faya – Maiden (PA) Dh60,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: AF Rasam, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
5.30pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep – Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mujeeb, Richard Mullen, Salem Al Ketbi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Club – Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Antonio Fresu, Abubakar Daud
7pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Pat Dobbs, Ibrahim Aseel
7.30pm: Jebel Hafeet – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Nibraas, Richard Mullen, Nicholas Bachalard
RESULTS
6pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $40,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
6.35pm: Race of Future – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Global Storm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Azure Coast, Antonio Fresu, Pavel Vashchenko
7.45pm: Business Bay Challenge – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Storm Damage, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor
20.20pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed (TB) $100,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Appreciated, Fernando Jara, Doug O’Neill
8.55pm: Singspiel Stakes – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O'Meara
9.30pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Meraas, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
EU Russia
The EU imports 90 per cent of the natural gas used to generate electricity, heat homes and supply industry, with Russia supplying almost 40 per cent of EU gas and a quarter of its oil.
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Batti Gul Meter Chalu
Producers: KRTI Productions, T-Series
Director: Sree Narayan Singh
Cast: Shahid Kapoor, Shraddha Kapoor, Divyenndu Sharma, Yami Gautam
Rating: 2/5
Biggest%20applause
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More on animal trafficking
'Nope'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jordan%20Peele%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Daniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Keke%20Palmer%2C%20Brandon%20Perea%2C%20Steven%20Yeun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The line up
Friday: Giggs, Sho Madjozi and Masego
Saturday: Nas, Lion Bbae, Roxanne Shante and DaniLeigh
Sole DXB runs from December 6 to 8 at Dubai Design District. Weekend pass is Dh295 while a one day pass is Dh195. Tickets are available from www.soledxb.com
The biog:
Favourite book: The Leader Who Had No Title by Robin Sharma
Pet Peeve: Racism
Proudest moment: Graduating from Sorbonne
What puts her off: Dishonesty in all its forms
Happiest period in her life: The beginning of her 30s
Favourite movie: "I have two. The Pursuit of Happiness and Homeless to Harvard"
Role model: Everyone. A child can be my role model
Slogan: The queen of peace, love and positive energy
Scores
Wales 74-24 Tonga
England 35-15 Japan
Italy 7-26 Australia
Sri Lanka v England
First Test, at Galle
England won by 211
Second Test, at Kandy
England won by 57 runs
Third Test, at Colombo
From Nov 23-27
Guns N’ Roses’s last gig before Abu Dhabi was in Hong Kong on November 21. We were there – and here’s what they played, and in what order. You were warned.
- It’s So Easy
- Mr Brownstone
- Chinese Democracy
- Welcome to the Jungle
- Double Talkin’ Jive
- Better
- Estranged
- Live and Let Die (Wings cover)
- Slither (Velvet Revolver cover)
- Rocket Queen
- You Could Be Mine
- Shadow of Your Love
- Attitude (Misfits cover)
- Civil War
- Coma
- Love Theme from The Godfather (movie cover)
- Sweet Child O’ Mine
- Wichita Lineman (Jimmy Webb cover)
- Wish You Were Here (instrumental Pink Floyd cover)
- November Rain
- Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden cover)
- Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door (Bob Dylan cover)
- Nightrain
Encore:
- Patience
- Don’t Cry
- The Seeker (The Who cover)
- Paradise City
Brief scores:
Toss: India, opted to field
Australia 158-4 (17 ov)
Maxwell 46, Lynn 37; Kuldeep 2-24
India 169-7 (17 ov)
Dhawan 76, Karthik 30; Zampa 2-22
Result: Australia won by 4 runs by D/L method
Match info
Premier League
Manchester United 2 (Martial 30', Lingard 69')
Arsenal 2 (Mustafi 26', Rojo 68' OG)
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
Race results:
1. Thani Al Qemzi (UAE) Team Abu Dhabi: 46.44 min
2. Peter Morin (FRA) CTIC F1 Shenzhen China Team: 0.91sec
3. Sami Selio (FIN) Mad-Croc Baba Racing Team: 31.43sec
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Jiu-jitsu calendar of events for 2017-2018:
August 5:
Round-1 of the President’s Cup in Al Ain.
August 11-13:
Asian Championship in Vietnam.
September 8-9:
Ajman International.
September 16-17
Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games, Ashgabat.
September 22-24:
IJJF Balkan Junior Open, Montenegro.
September 23-24:
Grand Slam Los Angeles.
September 29:
Round-1 Mother of The Nation Cup.
October 13-14:
Al Ain U18 International.
September 20-21:
Al Ain International.
November 3:
Round-2 Mother of The National Cup.
November 4:
Round-2 President’s Cup.
November 10-12:
Grand Slam Rio de Janeiro.
November 24-26:
World Championship, Columbia.
November 30:
World Beach Championship, Columbia.
December 8-9:
Dubai International.
December 23:
Round-3 President’s Cup, Sharjah.
January 12-13:
Grand Slam Abu Dhabi.
January 26-27:
Fujairah International.
February 3:
Round-4 President’s Cup, Al Dhafra.
February 16-17:
Ras Al Khaimah International.
February 23-24:
The Challenge Championship.
March 10-11:
Grand Slam London.
March 16:
Final Round – Mother of The Nation.
March 17:
Final Round – President’s Cup.
Racecard:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy | Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Balanchine | Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m.
Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Handicap | US$135,000 (Dirt) | 1,400 metres
7.05pm: Handicap | $135,000 (Turf) | 1,200m
7.40pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (T) | 2,000m
8.15pm: UAE Oaks | Group 3 | $250,000 (D) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile | Group 2 | $250,000 (T) | 1,600m
9.20pm: Handicap | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
Mobile phone packages comparison
Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Manchester United v Barcelona, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
WRESTLING HIGHLIGHTS
The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
Uefa Nations League: How it works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
Fixtures
Opening day Premier League fixtures for August 9-11
August 9
Liverpool v Norwich 11pm
August 10
West Ham v Man City 3.30pm
Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd 6pm
Burnley v Southampton 6pm
C Palace v Everton 6pm
Leicester v Wolves 6pm
Watford v Brighton 6pm
Tottenham v Aston Villa 8.30pm
August 11
Newcastle v Arsenal 5pm
Man United v Chelsea 7.30pm
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
The%20specs
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Sri Lanka squad for tri-nation series
Angelo Mathews (c), Upul Tharanga, Danushka Gunathilaka, Kusal Mendis, Dinesh Chandimal, Kusal Janith Perera, Thisara Perera, Asela Gunaratne, Niroshan Dickwella, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Dushmantha Chameera, Shehan Madushanka, Akila Dananjaya, Lakshan Sandakan and Wanidu Hasaranga
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The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
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Pathaan
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The%20National%20selections
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Results
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INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
SHALASH%20THE%20IRAQI
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Jurassic%20Park
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The%20specs
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THE%20SPECS
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Jawan
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Barbie
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The%20specs
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
FULL%20RESULTS
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Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
}Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt
Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure
Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers
Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels
