Sometimes, progress is its own obstacle to achieving a solution.
Consider this illustration: a bunch of fishermen head out one winter morning in an old boat - call it the Andrea Gail - looking to catch big-game swordfish. Technology and lady luck are on their side and pretty soon the hold is stuffed with whoppers.
But the weather is against them and as the sea rises, the boat begins to founder. Realising their predicament, the fishermen start tossing out their trophies, and pretty soon the freezing water stops pouring in. The men take heart. Maybe they might not sink after all.
But as their panic subsides, the accusations ensue. Whose idea was it to come out here in the first place, they ask? They grumble about the skipper, the seaworthiness of his vessel and his decision to risk the weather.
The boat's not the problem, the skipper shoots back, why did you overload the hold? Someone starts pointing the finger at the guy who caught the biggest fish. Clearly, he was to blame.
What the fishermen don't realise is that they have been cast in an allegory loosely based on the 2000 film The Perfect Storm. As they argue, the water slowly rises again in the boat and they slip beneath the icy waves. We see George Clooney going down with the vessel as it sinks into the depths.
The moral of the story: don't stop bailing.
The problem facing the global economy right now, economists warn, is that governments and the public mistake progress for remedy, and that they allow politics to hijack recovery efforts.
The recent rally in stock markets, for example, has prompted many to wonder if the global economy has turned the corner. Others dismiss the rally as a false dawn, a bear-market rally or a "dead-cat bounce".
It doesn't matter. Investors try to predict price movements based on trends in profitability. The economy affects profitability, therefore markets are roughly correlated with the economy.
But markets are not weathervanes. They go up and down, whether the economy rises or falls.
And the global economy is still getting worse, economists say. Leading the charge is the US, which is caught in a vicious circle of lower profits, job losses, reduced spending and falling asset prices. Trade-dependent economies in Asia and the Gulf are suffering whiplash thanks to sinking global commerce and diminishing appetite for risk among global investors.
The good news is that efforts by the US government and others around the world to shore up the economy are gaining traction. As this column noted last week, credit markets are thawing and it has become clear that there are funds available, but only for borrowers that investors consider very low risk, such as the US government or the Government of Abu Dhabi.
What is driving stocks isn't the likelihood of a recovery but what the efforts to achieve one mean for asset prices.
For those who believe the US government will manage to print enough money to inflate its way out of recession, stocks are a good hedge, particularly those denominated in currencies other than the US dollar.
For those who, like most economists, think deflation is still a bigger risk as banks, companies and consumers are forced to save up more money than the US government is printing or borrowing, the safety of bonds is more alluring.
How fast the US and the rest of the world recover, though, depends in a large part on how governments manage this so-called deleveraging.
Washington's efforts to bail out the banking system have finally managed to combine the necessary ingredients. There is at last a plan to relieve banks of the depreciating assets undermining their capital base. This complements earlier efforts to replenish banks' dwindling capital with taxpayer funds.
But the new Public-Private Investment Programme (PPIP), announced last month, lacks an important compulsory component, economists say. The danger now is that banks hold on to their toxic assets at inflated values, only grudgingly writing them down, but never regaining health.
The administration of Barack Obama, the US president, is submitting banks to stress tests to determine which will be allowed to shore up their capital with what's left of the previous administration's US$700 billion (Dh2.57 trillion) bailout funds.
Economists say its worst-case scenarios are too optimistic, enabling insolvent banks to continue receiving taxpayer funds when they should be either allowed to fail or be taken over.
That will dissuade banks from selling bad assets to the government, since doing so would force them to take more write-offs and potentially push them under water. So will the latest decision by the Financial Accounting Standards Board to ease requirements that banks mark their assets to the latest market price.
One can argue which is cheaper for the taxpayer: buying toxic assets for cents on the dollar in the hope they eventually become profitable, or buying discounted equity in banks clogged with toxic assets in the hope those banks return to health.
Whatever it does, economists say Washington is going to need more cash to do it. But with a backlash against bankers and executive bonuses, economists fear the US Congress will refuse to approve additional funds.
Similarly, economists say Mr Obama's $787bn fiscal stimulus plan won't be enough. He's going to need another. Congress narrowly passed the original package amid political objections to rising US indebtedness and the higher taxes needed to finance it.
Europe's own reluctance to borrow and spend also threatens to dilute the impact of spending in Washington and elsewhere, economists warn. If fiscal spending outside of Europe works, European exports will benefit, economists argue.
But if Europe doesn't stimulate its own demand, it won't be providing a reciprocal source of demand for its trading partners. Without its own version of the PPIP, Europe stands to get a free bank bailout from Washington as US purchases set a price for toxic assets held by European banks.
When it comes to bailing out the global economy, therefore, all hands need to be on deck.
warnold@thenational.ae
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
On racial profiling at airports
Results
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m | Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Al Shamkhah, Royston Ffrench, Sandeep Jadhav
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m | Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
8.15pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,200m | Winner: Kawasir, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 1,600m | Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
9.20pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 2,000m | Winner: Quartier Francais, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Napoleon
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Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:
Juventus 1 Ajax 2
Ajax advance 3-2 on aggregate
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
88 Video's most popular rentals
Avengers 3: Infinity War: an American superhero film released in 2018 and based on the Marvel Comics story.
Sholay: a 1975 Indian action-adventure film. It follows the adventures of two criminals hired by police to catch a vagabond. The film was panned on release but is now considered a classic.
Lucifer: is a 2019 Malayalam-language action film. It dives into the gritty world of Kerala’s politics and has become one of the highest-grossing Malayalam films of all time.
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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MATCH INFO
South Africa 66 (Tries: De Allende, Nkosi, Reinach (3), Gelant, Steyn, Brits, Willemse; Cons: Jantjies 8)
Canada 7 (Tries: Heaton; Cons: Nelson)