The US economy is heading for its strongest growth in about 40 years, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, and central bank policymakers are pledging to keep their foot on the gas despite an expected surge of inflation.
"Strong data are before us," a confident Fed chair Jerome Powell said after a two-day policy meeting, ticking off the list of forces Fed officials expect will produce 6.5 per cent GDP growth this year – from a big federal fiscal stimulus to optimism around the success of coronavirus vaccines.
"The [stimulus] cheques are going out ... Covid cases are coming down. Vaccination is moving quickly," Mr Powell said, marking a moment in which a body of top US economic officials expect growth in the United States to rival that of China this year, not to mention surging quickly beyond that of Europe and Japan.
Fed officials, in fact, expect economic growth to remain above trend for at least two years to come, at 3.3 per cent in 2022 and 2.2 per cent in 2023, compared to estimated long-term potential growth of only 1.8 per cent.
"We are not actually done yet. We are clearly on a good path. But we are not done, and I would hate to see us take our eye off the ball."
While inflation is expected to jump to 2.4 per cent this year, above the central bank's 2 per cent target, Mr Powell said that is viewed as a temporary surge that will not change the Fed's pledge to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate near zero as part of an effort to ensure the economic wounds from the pandemic are fully healed.
Opinions among the Fed's 18 current policymakers did shift somewhat, with four now expecting rates may need to rise next year and seven seeing a rate increase in 2023.
But in overlooking the expected jump in inflation this year without a policy response, the Fed held true to its new framework and a pledge not to overreact at the first hint of rising prices, a reaction that has in the past been felt to nip off periods of growth before workers felt the full benefits.
Fed officials now expect inflation to remain tame even as the unemployment rate drops, a calculated gamble under their new approach that emphasises employment gains and downplays inflation risks.
Mr Powell noted the "strong bulk" of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee anticipates no interest rate increase until at least 2024, and he added that it was even too soon to talk about scaling back the $120 billion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities the Fed is buying each month to further prop up the economy.
The committee's policy statement, which kept the benchmark overnight interest rate in a target range of 0 to 0.25 per cent, was unanimous.
"We are committed to giving the economy the support it needs to return as quickly as possible to a state of maximum employment," Mr Powell said in a briefing after the Fed released its new economic projections and latest policy statement.
"We are not actually done yet. We are clearly on a good path. But we are not done, and I would hate to see us take our eye off the ball ... There are in the range of 10 million people who need to get back to work."
Markets had relaxed by the end of Mr Powell's briefing, with the Fed chief and the central bank having avoided potential disruption had they signalled that stronger economic forecasts would lead to a faster-than-expected move to scale back support for the economy.
US stocks ended the day higher, with the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at record highs. Yields on US Treasuries on the longer end of the curve remained elevated, while those on shorter-term debt fell.
"There was just a lot of anxiety, which definitely pumped up bond yields so far, but the Fed's very dovish kind of response for a quite strong economic outlook is a big sigh of relief," said Anthony Denier, chief executive of trading platform Webull.
Compared with the Fed's first pandemic-era forecasts, issued in June of last year, the projections issued on Wednesday were a remarkable turnabout after a year some worried would produce a new Great Depression, and during a pandemic that claimed more than half a million lives in the US.
The unemployment rate is now seen falling to 4.5 per cent by the end of this year, compared to the projection in June of 6.4 per cent. It is forecast to fall even lower next year, reaching levels that would once have been considered near or below what economists view as full employment.
The projected 6.5 per cent growth in gross domestic product would be the largest annual jump since 1984.
After the rise in prices this year, the Fed expects inflation to fall back to 2 per cent in 2022.
"Considering the disruption and economic upheaval of the last year, this is mind-blowing," wrote Seema Shah, chief strategist for Principal Global Investors.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ahmed Raza
UAE cricket captain
Age: 31
Born: Sharjah
Role: Left-arm spinner
One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95
T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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U19 WORLD CUP, WEST INDIES
UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
- Saturday 15 January: UAE beat Canada by 49 runs
- Thursday 20 January: v England
- Saturday 22 January: v Bangladesh
UAE squad:
Alishan Sharafu (captain), Shival Bawa, Jash Giyanani, Sailles
Jaishankar, Nilansh Keswani, Aayan Khan, Punya Mehra, Ali Naseer, Ronak Panoly,
Dhruv Parashar, Vinayak Raghavan, Soorya Sathish, Aryansh Sharma, Adithya
Shetty, Kai Smith
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPAD%20(2022)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010.9-inch%20Liquid%20Retina%20IPS%20LCD%2C%202%2C360%20x%201%2C640%2C%20264ppi%2C%20wide%20colour%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20Apple%20Pencil%201%20support%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EChip%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20A14%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%204-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2064GB%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPadOS%2016%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012-megapixel%20wide%2C%20f%2F1.8%2C%205x%20digital%2C%20Smart%20HDR%203%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full%20HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.4%2C%202x%2C%20Smart%20HDR%203%2C%20Centre%20Stage%3B%20full%20HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAudio%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Stereo%20speakers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Touch%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%2C%20smart%20connector%20(for%20folio%2Fkeyboard)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%2010%20hours%20on%20Wi-Fi%3B%20up%20to%209%20hours%20on%20cellular%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinish%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Blue%2C%20pink%2C%20silver%2C%20yellow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPad%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%2020W%20power%20adapter%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%20%E2%80%94%20Dh1%2C849%20(64GB)%20%2F%20Dh2%2C449%20(256GB)%3B%20cellular%20%E2%80%94%20Dh2%2C449%20(64GB)%20%2F%20Dh3%2C049%20(256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Padmaavat
Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali
Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh
3.5/5
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
Ads on social media can 'normalise' drugs
A UK report on youth social media habits commissioned by advocacy group Volteface found a quarter of young people were exposed to illegal drug dealers on social media.
The poll of 2,006 people aged 16-24 assessed their exposure to drug dealers online in a nationally representative survey.
Of those admitting to seeing drugs for sale online, 56 per cent saw them advertised on Snapchat, 55 per cent on Instagram and 47 per cent on Facebook.
Cannabis was the drug most pushed by online dealers, with 63 per cent of survey respondents claiming to have seen adverts on social media for the drug, followed by cocaine (26 per cent) and MDMA/ecstasy, with 24 per cent of people.
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Fight card
Preliminaries:
Nouredine Samir (UAE) v Sheroz Kholmirzav (UZB); Lucas Porst (SWE) v Ellis Barboza (GBR); Mouhmad Amine Alharar (MAR) v Mohammed Mardi (UAE); Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) v Spyro Besiri (GRE); Aslamjan Ortikov (UZB) v Joshua Ridgwell (GBR)
Main card:
Carlos Prates (BRA) v Dmitry Valent (BLR); Bobirjon Tagiev (UZB) v Valentin Thibaut (FRA); Arthur Meyer (FRA) v Hicham Moujtahid (BEL); Ines Es Salehy (BEL) v Myriame Djedidi (FRA); Craig Coakley (IRE) v Deniz Demirkapu (TUR); Artem Avanesov (ARM) v Badreddine Attif (MAR); Abdulvosid Buranov (RUS) v Akram Hamidi (FRA)
Title card:
Intercontinental Lightweight: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) v Angel Marquez (ESP)
Intercontinental Middleweight: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) v Francesco Iadanza (ITA)
Asian Featherweight: Zakaria El Jamari (UAE) v Phillip Delarmino (PHI)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: from Dh155,000
On sale: now
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
