Mega-rich step back from London's top property market ... for now

An absence of mega-deals belied some serious activity further down the price scale for London's super-prime residential property sector in 2024.

Agents who arrange the buying and selling of the UK capital's most luxurious and expensive homes say there were no deals in London's residential property market of more than £100 million ($125.6 million) this year.

With no quarter exceeding sales above the $1 billion threshold, London is far below the heights it reached between 2021 and last year.

During that period, the total value of super-prime property deals averaged $1.5 billion per quarter.

The highest price achieved for a super-prime property in London in 2024 was £80 million when the film director and fashion designer Tom Ford acquired a mansion in Chelsea.

The previous year it was a different story, with several properties in that price bracket changing hands, not least Aberconway House in Mayfair.

The 25,000-square foot mansion near Hyde Park was snapped up by billionaire Adar Poonawalla for £138 million. In addition, fellow Indian billionaire Ravi Ruia was thought to have bought Hanover Lodge in Regent's Park for £113 million in 2023.

Overall, London's super-prime residential property market had a quiet year, as many ultra wealthy players decided to sit tight and see what the summer's general election and the subsequent autumn budget had in store.

Looming changes to property taxes such as stamp duty and the scrapping of the non-dom status resulted insubdued activity at the top end of the super-prime market, the lower segments (£10 million-£25 million) fared better.

“While we have done over 12 major deals for homes valued above £10 million across Prime Central London (PCL) and several for homes valued above £20 million, this has been a challenging year for the ultra-prime residential market across the capital’s most prestigious addresses,” Paul Finch, director and head of new homes at Beauchamp Estates, told The National. “For homes valued above £20 million, the number of deals across London dropped by 25 per cent to 35 per cent during 2024, due to the significant disruption to the market caused by stamp duty rises, changes to the non-dom regime, the UK general election, the new Labour government and the autumn budget.”

A 7,948-square foot, six-bedroom mansion in Belgravia, which at one point served as the Italian embassy, was bought by an Asian billionaire for £21.5 million shortly before UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a rise in stamp duty for overseas buyers from 5 per cent to 7 per cent in her budget at the end of October. The timing of such deals was commonplace this year – Tom Ford's Chelsea mansion purchase is also thought to have gone through just before the budget.

“In the three months between the start of August and budget day at the end of October, there was a huge wave of sales as existing vendors sought to exit London and there was a significant rush of incoming buyers, particularly from America and India, who raced to buy prior to the budget and the rise in stamp duty,” Peter Wetherell, founder and executive chairman of Wetherell, told The National.

The desire to seal deals before the UK budget was apparent in Knight Frank's Global Super Prime Intelligence report, which showed that London was the only market among 12 cities worldwide to see a quarterly increase in sales of properties above $10 million. The research found that 51 PCL sales took place in the third quarter, up from the 47 reported in the previous three months. So far in 2024, no quarter has topped $1 billion.

Research by the private bank Coutts found that price negotiations were more intense during this year, as buyers gained the upper hand. Average discounts in the PCL market in the third quarter of 2024 rose to 8.6 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent in the previous quarter. In addition, in the three months to the end of September, 79 per cent of prime residential property sales were completed below the initial asking price.

“Sales volumes for the third quarter of this year have risen 7.2 per cent compared to the previous three months [April to June]. And interestingly, sales volumes are also up 14 per cent on the 10-year average,” said Katherine O’Shea, real estate director at Coutts. “This demonstrates the resilience of the prime London property market. It’s mainly activity in the £2 million to £5 million price bracket that’s driving this growth.”

Over here

The national origins of buyers in the London super-prime market changed notably in 2024 as well. The strengthening dollar gave US buyers more bang for their buck and the struggling UK and European economies held back potential domestic super-prime British buyers and their continental counterparts from making any significant moves.

“Middle East and American buyers have dominated the London luxury homes market during 2024 and have accounted for almost 50 per cent of the sales for homes valued above £20 million,” Mr Finch told The National. “There have been significant falls in buyers from other locations including domestic UK buyers, western and European buyers and buyers from South Asia.

“Indian, Chinese and Hong Kong buyers have remained active in the luxury homes market this year but at much lower numbers than American and Middle East buyers. The most significant buyers from the Middle East have been from three countries, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.”

A recent report from Sharia-compliant cross-border bank Nomo and property search portal Rightmove, called Global Neighbours: Why GCC Buyers are Purchasing UK Residential Properties, found internet searches from the Gulf Co-operation Council nations about UK residential property make up 11 per cent of international demand. “GCC buyers have long held an affinity for the UK and our research proves that this appetite is showing no signs of abating, particularly for those based in Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” said Layla Hamidian, head of property finance sales and servicing at Nomo.

The real estate principle of “location, location, location” has certainly been in evidence in London's super-prime market this year, as certain areas have done better than others. Coutts says prime properties prices in Knightsbridge and Belgravia fell 5.6 per cent in the third quarter, while there was 1.2 per cent growth in South Kensington over the same period.

“Sales in other central London locations such as Belgravia, Westminster and Whitehall have been much slower this year,” Mr Finch told The National. “On the northern boundary of Hyde Park you have Bayswater, Notting Hill and the Hyde Park Estate. These districts attract a combination of wealthy Middle East, American and European families.

“Chelsea, St John’s Wood and Notting Hill have been the other three extremely successful addresses in London this year.”

Island of stability

However, many agents and brokers agree that Mayfair continues to be the principle hotspot for super-prime property in London. “While neighbouring addresses including Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Marylebone have suffered from falling prices and unsold residential properties during 2024, Mayfair has been like an island of stability and there has been a 'flight to quality', with discerning buyers continuing to purchase homes and a rising number of wealthy applicants increasingly focusing their house-hunting solely on Mayfair,” Mr Wetherell told The National.

There is an additional quirk to the property market in Mayfair at the moment, which will support prices for some time to come. Despite the obvious attraction of Mayfair's location between Oxford Street, Piccadilly and Hyde Park, large super-prime properties will be in short supply in the area in the coming years. The City of Westminster has introduced planning restrictions that limit new apartments, houses and even refurbishments to properties under 2,150 square feet in size.

As such, a UHNWI looking for a large family home of more than 3,000 square feet will face a limited supply in Mayfair. However, the rules do not apply only to Mayfair. Westminster's City Plan means the restrictions stretch from Queen's Park and St John’s Wood down to Pimlico, taking in Hyde Park, Knightsbridge, Belgravia and St James’s.

It means large super-prime properties in these neighbourhoods will hold their values for decades to come, because no new additions of more than 2,150 square feet will come on to the market. It places developments such as 1 Mayfair in an enviable position, given apartments at the new super-prime address average between 3,000 and 10,000 square feet, with prices starting at £35 million. As 2025 progresses, the building's Portland stone facade will slowly be revealed and the first “dressed” showpiece residence will be unveiled. Due for completion in 2026, with 600 UHNWIs, 1 Mayfair has the longest waiting list of centi-millionaires and billionaires of any property development in the world.

“We have had considerable interest from Middle East applicants in 1 Mayfair, in particular from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar,” Lars Christiaanse, group director of sales at Caudwell, the developer behind 1 Mayfair, told The National. “For discerning buyers who will be fortunate enough to call 1 Mayfair home, the development, with its beautifully designed public halls and rooms, central landscaped garden, five-star deluxe concierge, leisure and lifestyle facilities, and outstanding health spa, is far more than just an address. 1 Mayfair will be an unrivalled statement of refined taste and distinction.”

Aside from 1 Mayfair, there is much excitement in the market surrounding 100 Piccadilly, a scheme of 36 luxury apartments, and One Carrington, a contemporary seven-storey block encompassing 29 prime apartments, including a four-bedroom penthouse priced at £25 million. In the heart of Mayfair, both buildings are being developed by property company Reuben Brothers.

Pent-up demand

Knight Frank's Global Super-Prime Intelligence Report showed that globally in the third quarter of 2024, there were 406 sales of properties valued at more than $10 million, an 8 per cent drop in volume and a 17 per cent drop in value compared to the previous three months.

But many super-prime market watchers feel London, and especially certain parts of the UK capital, could have a better 2025. There could be a flurry of activity in the first few months as some current non-doms look to leave the UK ahead of April 6 when the tax status falls away. However, this is unlikely to have a huge effect at the high-end of the super-prime London market, because UHNWIs take many other factors into consideration when buying a property, from the cultural to the educational.

As such, Mr Finch believes the first half of 2025 will be “extremely busy” in the super-prime residential market as “pent-up demand is released after the slow 2024 we have had”. “Just as in 2024, the market in 2025 will be driven by buyers from the US and Middle East, in particular purchasers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,” he told The National.

For Mr Wetherell, 2024 was characterised by sellers who wished to leave because of the impending non-dom regime change and those who wanted to buy before the end of October when stamp duty went up. “During 2025 we predict the volume of Mayfair sales will rise by 30 per cent, with the market driven by buyers from the Middle East, America and India,” he told The National. “Values for the most sought-after homes will rise by 1 per cent to 2 per cent, while the rest of the stock will stay stable.”