The Bank of England’s main economic forecasting model needs a complete revamp, according to a review published on Friday by the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
Ben Bernanke’s review had 12 recommendations for the Bank of England that cover how it forecasts the future paths of interest rates and inflation and how it communicates views on the UK economy, including any uncertainties or risks that it might foresee, with the markets and the public at large.
“The forecasting and policy challenges faced by the Bank of England in recent years were hardly unique,” Mr Bernanke said.
“Still, they have served as a stress test of forecasting at the bank.
“The bank, like other central banks and policy institutions, will be working to draw the appropriate lessons from this experience. The goal of this review is to assist in this effort.”
Fan chart fail
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey welcomed Mr Bernanke’s review, adding that it was a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to update our approach to forecasting, and ensure it is fit for our more uncertain world”.
Mr Bernanke recommended that the central bank publish more alternative scenarios for the economy when forecasting, rather than amalgamating market expectations of where inflation and rates might go into what is commonly called a “fan chart”.
It’s a shame that it appears it won’t go the whole hog and publish projections for interest rates
Paul Dales,
Capital Economics
The term was coined by the Bank of England in 1997 and refers to a single line chart which then incorporates a number of different forecasted points, meaning the line “fans out” into the future.
Importantly, Mr Bernanke did not recommend so-called “dot-plot” method of forecasting, where rate setters anonymously publish their own forecasts for interest rates, growth and inflation.
It’s a method Mr Bernanke introduced when he was chairman at the Fed 12 years ago and continues to be in use there today.
But the Bank of England does not publish its own rate forecasts and Mr Bailey is known to be somewhat dismissive of the dot-plot method.
At the moment, the bank produces two sets of forecasts for inflation, growth and unemployment.
One is based on interest rates staying unchanged, and the other on what financial markets think will happen to borrowing costs over the next three years. The European Central Bank uses a similar approach.
But Mr Bernanke said that the Bank of England should be “exceptionally clear” when they believe market expectations for interest rates are “inconsistent with its view of the outlook”.
Unique circumstances
Mr Bernanke was given the task eight months ago of looking into the inner workings of the Bank of England and the interest rate decisions it made at the time inflation in the UK was rapidly rising in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
Many economists have accused the bank of being too slow to raise rates when inflation was starting to soar and of currently being too slow to bring them back down now that UK economic growth is struggling.
In fairness, the inflation shock to energy prices in the wake of the Ukraine war caught many central banks by surprise, in a world that had enjoyed low borrowing costs for 10 years.
Mr Bernanke described the Bank of England's failure to foresee the surge in inflation as “probably inevitable” due to “unique circumstances”, although he stopped short of comparing its rate decisions in terms of other central banks, because that was not in his remit.
Economists often point to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report in May 2022 as evidence that something was amiss. At the time, inflation in the UK was seven per cent and interest rates were at one per cent.
The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee believed a one per cent rise in interest rates would be enough to quell inflation and bring it back down to its 2 per cent target.
That is not what happened, and a series of rate rises over the following 15 months took rates to 5.25 per cent in August 2023, the level they remain at today.
Meanwhile, by October 2022 inflation had risen to a 40-year high of 11.1 per cent. By August 2023, it had fallen to 6.7 per cent and by February this year inflation was down to 3.4 per cent.
Rate cuts?
The trouble is many economists now think that interest rates have been too high for too long and that inflation will undershoot the Bank of England’s two per cent target within the next few months.
“Overall, this is a great opportunity for the bank to improve its forecasting and the way it communicates its views,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.
“It’s a shame that it appears it won’t go the whole hog and publish projections for interest rates, although technically that hasn’t been ruled out.
“None of this will help the bank navigate the more pressing issue of when and how fast to cut interest rates.
“For what it’s worth, our view that inflation will be lower than the bank is forecasting implies it may cut interest rates from 5.25 per cent in June all the way to 3 per cent next year.”
Any changes to the bank’s forecasting methodology are predicted to take place slowly. Clare Lombardelli, who will join the Bank of England in July as deputy governor for monetary policy, will lead the implementation of any changes.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
Oppenheimer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Nolan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECillian%20Murphy%2C%20Emily%20Blunt%2C%20Robert%20Downey%20Jr%2C%20Florence%20Pugh%2C%20Matt%20Damon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E5%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Arabian Gulf League fixtures:
Friday:
- Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
- Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
- Al Ain v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 8.15pm
Saturday:
- Dibba v Ajman, 5.15pm
- Sharjah v Al Wasl, 5.20pm
- Al Jazira v Al Nasr, 8.15pm
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MADAME%20WEB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20S.J.%20Clarkson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Dakota%20Johnson%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%2C%20Sydney%20Sweeney%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20flat-six%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E525hp%20(GT3)%2C%20500hp%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E465Nm%20(GT3)%2C%20450Nm%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh944%2C000%20(GT3)%2C%20Dh581%2C700%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Spare
Profile
Company name: Spare
Started: March 2018
Co-founders: Dalal Alrayes and Saurabh Shah
Based: UAE
Sector: FinTech
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
RESULTS
5pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner AF Nashrah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Mutaqadim, Riccardo Iacopini, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.
6pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Hameem, Jose Santiago, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
6.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner AF Almomayaz, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Dalil Al Carrere, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash.
7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Lahmoom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Jayide Al Boraq, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs: 2018 Jaguar E-Pace First Edition
Price, base / as tested: Dh186,480 / Dh252,735
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 246hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 365Nm @ 1,200rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Racecard
5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m
6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Superliminal%20
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DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
START-UPS%20IN%20BATCH%204%20OF%20SANABIL%20500'S%20ACCELERATOR%20PROGRAMME
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESaudi%20Arabia%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJoy%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Delivers%20car%20services%20with%20affordable%20prices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EKaraz%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20diabetics%20with%20gamification%2C%20IoT%20and%20real-time%20data%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMedicarri%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Medical%20marketplace%20that%20connects%20clinics%20with%20suppliers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMod5r%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Makes%20automated%20and%20recurring%20investments%20to%20grow%20wealth%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStuck%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Live%2C%20on-demand%20language%20support%20to%20boost%20writing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWalzay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20in%20recruitment%20while%20reducing%20hiring%20time%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEighty6%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarketplace%20for%20restaurant%20and%20supplier%20procurements%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFarmUnboxed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHelps%20digitise%20international%20food%20supply%20chain%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENutriCal%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20F%26amp%3BB%20businesses%20and%20governments%20with%20nutritional%20analysis%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWellxai%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Provides%20insurance%20that%20enables%20and%20rewards%20user%20habits%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEgypt%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAmwal%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20A%20Shariah-compliant%20crowd-lending%20platform%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeben%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Helps%20CFOs%20manage%20cash%20efficiently%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEgab%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Connects%20media%20outlets%20to%20journalists%20in%20hard-to-reach%20areas%20for%20exclusives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ENeqabty%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Digitises%20financial%20and%20medical%20services%20of%20labour%20unions%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMonak%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Provides%20financial%20inclusion%20and%20life%20services%20to%20migrants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Valladolid v Osasuna (Kick-off midnight UAE)
Saturday Valencia v Athletic Bilbao (5pm), Getafe v Sevilla (7.15pm), Huesca v Alaves (9.30pm), Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Real Sociedad v Eibar (5pm), Real Betis v Villarreal (7.15pm), Elche v Granada (9.30pm), Barcelona v Levante (midnight)
Monday Celta Vigo v Cadiz (midnight)
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Maestro
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBradley%20Cooper%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBradley%20Cooper%2C%20Carey%20Mulligan%2C%20Maya%20Hawke%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
