Another tiny rise in UK house prices has sparked debate over whether the embattled market may finally be turning the corner.
But is it too early for investors and homeowners to be breathing collective sighs of relief?
UK house prices rose 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis in November, the third successive monthly increase and the best performance since February this year, the Nationwide Building Society said on Friday.
The market "remains weak" however, with prices 2 per cent lower in November compared with the same month last year. But this is an improvement on the October figure, which was 3.3 per cent lower, the Nationwide said.
“There has been a significant change in market expectations for the future path of bank rate in recent months which, if sustained, could provide much needed support for housing market activity," said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide.
In August, market watchers had expected the Bank of England to push interest rates as high as 6 per cent by the end of the year and for the central bank to drop rates only in small increments to about4 per cent over the following five years.
But that mood has now changed after inflation fell from 6.7 per cent in September to 4.6 per cent in October. Most analysts now think the Bank of England will hold interest rates at their current 5.25 per cent until the end of 2024, before lowering them to 3.5 per cent in the years ahead.
Buyers market?
With the average price of a house in Britain now at £258,557 ($326,870), and research from the property website Zoopla showing recently that buyers were able to negotiate asking prices lower by an average of £18,000 in November, many market watchers say buyers are in a better position now than they have been for some time.
"Negotiating hard on price will become key for those hoping to nab a bargain, with homebuyers knocking off £18,000 on average from asking prices in November to land a deal – the highest average discount in five years indicating that buyers have the upper hand despite the long-term shortage of homes," said Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest.
This week, numbers from the Bank of England showed that net mortgage approvals for house purchases jumped to 47,400 in October, up from 43,700 in September, a rise of 8 per cent.
At the same time, the growing competition on the mortgage market continued at pace, with Barclays joining the fray by offering a five-year fixed mortgage at 4.39 per cent, with certain conditions.
Mortgage deals for fixed five-year terms charging rates below 5 per cent are becoming commonplace in the UK.
Meanwhile, the average two-year fixed residential mortgage stood at 6.05 per cent on Thursday, according to data from Moneyfacts.
"The rate war that is raging between lenders is now really starting to ignite demand for property," Katy Eatenton, mortgage and protection specialist at Lifetime Wealth Management, told Newspage.
"People who were simply browsing on Rightmove are now turning into buyers. With 90 per cent loan-to-value mortgages going sub-5 per cent this week, and more rate cuts likely as swap rates edge down, first-time buyers are finally being given that all-important leg-up on to the ladder. 2023 has been a year of turbulence but as we enter 2024 things are looking a lot less bumpy."
Light at the end of the tunnel?
But with the cost-of-living crisis still very much weighing on household budgets and interest rates expected to stay higher for longer, is the UK housing market really turning the corner?
As the Bank of England continues to stamp on demand, some analysts feel there may be glimmers of hope for first-time buyers in the new year, as more buy-to-let landlords quit the market because of falling yields.
"From the start of 2024, we’re expecting a further softening in demand from amateur buy-to-let landlords and with it an injection of high quality, smaller homes which will offer new opportunities for buyers," said Alan Davison, director of customer sales at Together.
"With the succession of tax and regulatory changes, as well as the continued pressure on costs versus potential yields, this is already unfolding, which will see activity steadily tick over."
Nonetheless, overall mortgage lending remains subdued and UK house prices continue to struggle despite managing to eke out weak rises in the past three months.
Gabriella Dickens, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said those rises could well be reversed in the near term and that "a material recovery in house prices still looks a few months away yet".
"The outlook for next year, however, is brighter," she added.
While transaction volumes are still low, the price indices collated by the likes of Nationwide, Halifax and others "are potentially more volatile", said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agency Knight Frank.
"But sentiment has improved in recent weeks as the worst of the economic data moves behind us."
"If we are not at the bottom of the current slowdown in the UK housing market, we must be close."
Even if the UK housing market is close to bottom, a rapid rebound "still appears unlikely", according to Mr Gardner at Nationwide.
Which makes it more likely that home buyers will lean more towards staying where they are for the time being, not least because the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates at 5.25 per cent for much of next year.
Ms Haine said that means those looking to sell in 2024 face a "tricky decision".
"Pause moving plans to see if the market improves further or push ahead and hope to achieve the price they want?
"The solution may be guided by whether a move is necessary, because of death, divorce, an expanding family or financial difficulties, or whether it can wait for better market conditions."
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Short-term let permits explained
Homeowners and tenants are allowed to list their properties for rental by registering through the Dubai Tourism website to obtain a permit.
Tenants also require a letter of no objection from their landlord before being allowed to list the property.
There is a cost of Dh1,590 before starting the process, with an additional licence fee of Dh300 per bedroom being rented in your home for the duration of the rental, which ranges from three months to a year.
Anyone hoping to list a property for rental must also provide a copy of their title deeds and Ejari, as well as their Emirates ID.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
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%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Diaa%20Jubaili%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20180%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Deep%20Vellum%20Publishing%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
More from Aya Iskandarani
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E456hp%20at%205%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E691Nm%20at%203%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E14.6L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh349%2C545%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wes%20Ball%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Owen%20Teague%2C%20Freya%20Allen%2C%20Kevin%20Durand%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Porsche Taycan Turbo specs
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
On sale: now
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
The%20specs
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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