Most economists expect the Bank of England to hold UK interest rates at 5.25 per cent once again on Thursday, as the effect of 14 consecutive rate rises slowly lowers inflation.
In a poll conducted by Reuters, 61 out of 73 economists predicted the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would leave rates on hold this month.
But that's not to say that interest rates have peaked. Many economists say the MPC is keeping its powder dry and another 0.25 percentage point rate rise could be in the offing before the winter is over.
Sticky inflation
Overall inflation in the UK did not drop in September, remaining stuck at 6.7 per cent, more than three times the BoE's target of 2 per cent.
That goal is not expected to be reached until the second quarter of 2025, economists say, meaning the MPC will lean towards keeping rates higher for longer.
But the slowdown in core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, was recently described by BoE governor Andrew Bailey as "quite encouraging".
However, some feel keeping rates higher for longer could tip the country into a recession, if indeed the British economy is not already in one.
Recent figures from various parts of the economy indicate a considerable slowing of activity.
On Wednesday, the S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which indicates levels of activity in factories, stood at 44.8, down from an early estimate of 45.2.
The output element of the PMI figure saw a contraction for the eighth straight month, the longest such run since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the UK economy was already "flatlining", with growth "proving very elusive".
"If wage growth and goods and services price increases keep heading down, it'll make policymakers more adverse to another hike," she added.
'Finely balanced'
Economists from HSBC predict the MPC will vote six to three in favour of leaving rates on hold on Thursday but that the BoE will "keep the door open to future tightening".
BoE chief economist Huw Pill last month said while decisions on interest rate were becoming increasingly "finely balanced", the MPC "will do what we need to do in order to have inflation at 2 per cent on a lasting basis”.
That fine balance is illustrated by the fact that at its last meeting in September, four of the nine-person MPC voted to raise interest rates to 5.5 per cent.
"It would only take one committee member to change their mind to tip the balance in favour of more tightening – but we're doubtful," said James Smith, a developed markets economist at ING.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
How Beautiful this world is!
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
25 staff on site
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.4-litre%2C%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eeight-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E617hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh630%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of Udrive
Date started: March 2016
Founder: Hasib Khan
Based: Dubai
Employees: 40
Amount raised (to date): $3.25m – $750,000 seed funding in 2017 and a Seed round of $2.5m last year. Raised $1.3m from Eureeca investors in January 2021 as part of a Series A round with a $5m target.
HOW TO WATCH
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