A shopper walking through the aisle of a supermarket. UK inflation in September was at the same rate as the previous month. PA
A shopper walking through the aisle of a supermarket. UK inflation in September was at the same rate as the previous month. PA
A shopper walking through the aisle of a supermarket. UK inflation in September was at the same rate as the previous month. PA
A shopper walking through the aisle of a supermarket. UK inflation in September was at the same rate as the previous month. PA

UK inflation rate held at 6.7 per cent in September


Matthew Davies
  • English
  • Arabic

Inflation in the UK stayed at 6.7 per cent in September, following the same reading in August, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, stood at 6.1 per cent in the 12 months to September, down from 6.2 per cent in August.

Economists had predicted a slight fall in the headline consumer price index. Given the small decrease in the core reading, some said the chances that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee would raise interest rates at its meeting in early November have increased.

Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital, said the “disappointing” CPI numbers suggest the Bank of England “still has work to do, if it is to bring CPI back to its 2 per cent target in a timely manner”.

“The figures may raise question marks over the wisdom of the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold last month and whether or not the split nature of the Monetary Policy Committee is hampering the Bank's ability to bring CPI back to target,” he told The National.

“Certainly, today’s numbers are likely to provoke concerns that a further rate rise may yet be delivered, particularly when taking into account yesterday’s wages data which, while slowing, are doing so at only a gradual place.”

Britain's Chancellor Jeremy Hunt expects inflation to “keep falling this year” but said it “rarely falls in a straight line”.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5 per cent in September, the same rate as in September last year, the ONS said.

Food prices, which fell for the first time since September 2021, provided the largest downward pressure on overall inflation while rising petrol and diesel prices provided the biggest upward pressure.

Rising prices in the hotel sector also added to the upward pressure on inflation, the ONS said.

Bumpy downward journey

“It is clear the inflation battle is far from over, with wage growth now outstripping inflation and rising geopolitical tensions putting further pressure on fuel and energy prices,” said Alice Hain, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest.

“The pace of wage growth is easing, however, with total pay including bonuses dropping back to 8.1 per cent in the three months to August, down from 8.5 per cent in the previous period – a reflection of the weakening effect of 14 interest rate rises on the labour market.”

The Confederation of British Industry said the recent rise in the price of oil and domestic price pressures in the UK may mean that inflation's downward journey may now be “bumpier” than previously expected.

“It’s still very likely that interest rates are close to their peak, with the stance of monetary policy now judged to be restrictive,” said Alpesh Paleja, the CBI's lead economist.

“The bank has signalled that rates are unlikely to be cut anytime soon, however, so households and businesses should plan for tighter financial conditions persisting.”

The pound strengthened a little on the inflation news. Sterling rose 0.18 per cent to $1.2206, having briefly touched $1.2208 immediately after the CPI numbers were released.

Household budgets

Analysts said that household budgets will continue to be stretched, even though food price inflation has been coming down in recent months.

The ONS said that food prices fell by 0.1 per cent between August and September this year, compared with a rise of 1.1 per cent between the same two months last year.

This meant the annual rate of food inflation in September was 12.2 per cent, down from 13.6 per cent in August and well below the 45-year high of 19.2 per cent it hit in March.

“This slight easing of grocery inflation is welcome, but it’s still taking a heavy toll on household budgets,” said Kevin Bright, global leader of the consumer pricing practice at McKinsey and Company.

“Slowing price increases in most food categories, alongside fierce supermarket competition will have had an impact on shoppers’ food baskets.

“But with sugar up nearly 60 per cent – and a potential sugar shortage in the coming months – we could see confectionary prices impacted.”

Bricklayers on a Barratt Homes development site. David Thomas, chief executive of Barratt, said on Wednesday: "The trading environment remains difficult, with potential homebuyers still facing mortgage challenges."
Bricklayers on a Barratt Homes development site. David Thomas, chief executive of Barratt, said on Wednesday: "The trading environment remains difficult, with potential homebuyers still facing mortgage challenges."

Mortgage worries

Many analysts are concerned that the stubbornness of inflation points to further increases in interest rates and thus rises in mortgage rates.

Recently, large UK lenders have been offering mortgage products with rates of below 5 per cent.

However, with the prospect of another rise in interest rates from the MPC by the end of the year, Ben Thompson, deputy chief executive of Mortgage Advice Bureau, said it was “unlikely that these [mortgage] rates will drop further anytime soon”.

Justin Moy at EHF Mortgages told Newspage that oil prices probably be the main contributor “to bumpy inflation for the next few months”.

“These are factors outside of our control but borrowers may end up paying for it,” he said.

Meanwhile, the UK largest housebuilder, Barratt repeated that it will build 20 per cent fewer homes this year than in 2022, because of reduced affordability brought about by successive rises in interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis.

“The trading environment remains difficult, with potential homebuyers still facing mortgage challenges,” Barratt chief executive David Thomas said on Wednesday.

Barratt's total forward sales, a crucial number when determining near-term demand, stood at 9,221 homes as of October 8 down about 31 per cent year on year.

Coal Black Mornings

Brett Anderson

Little Brown Book Group 

Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
  • Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Sri Lanka's T20I squad

Thisara Perera (captain), Dilshan Munaweera, Danushka Gunathilaka, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Ashan Priyanjan, Mahela Udawatte, Dasun Shanaka, Sachith Pathirana, Vikum Sanjaya, Lahiru Gamage, Seekkuge Prasanna, Vishwa Fernando, Isuru Udana, Jeffrey Vandersay and Chathuranga de Silva.

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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What are the main cyber security threats?

Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.

BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES

SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities

Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails

Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies

Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments

The%20specs
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The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
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Updated: October 18, 2023, 8:40 AM`