UBS sees a euro correction as it bets that the European Central Bank will start unwinding its stimulus slower than the market expects. Francois Lenoir / Reuters
UBS sees a euro correction as it bets that the European Central Bank will start unwinding its stimulus slower than the market expects. Francois Lenoir / Reuters

UBS Wealth says euro rally may be over



The few savvy investors who foresaw this year’s rally in the euro now say the currency may lose steam.

UBS Wealth Management, which predicted at the start of the year that the common currency may climb, sees a correction on the cards as it bets that the European Central Bank will start unwinding its stimulus slower than the market expects. Its projection of US$1.15 stood out given its contrarian nature at a time when the majority of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg expected it to slip to around $1.03 or even parity.

The euro began the year on a bleak note as analysts were bullish on the dollar given the lofty expectations surrounding then newly elected president Donald Trump’s fiscal reforms. The common currency, however, defied skeptics to rally in the absence of tax reforms in the US, an improvement in the euro area economic outlook and ebbing regional political risks.

“At the start of the year, dollar mania was the rage, and now ‘europhoria’ has taken over as markets have come around to the view that the ECB will start to reduce bond purchases early in 2018,” said Mark Haefele, the global chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management. “But the bulk of the euro rally may now be over, at least for the next few months.”

There is even a possibility the dollar could rebound in the short term if the U.S. passes a tax-reform package or raises its debt ceiling without incident, Zurich-based Haefele said. UBS Wealth, which recommends that investors should hold a neutral position on the euro against the dollar, predicts the currency will trade at $1.18 in six months.

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The euro traded at $1.1904 on Monday, taking its gain for the year to 13 percent, the second-best performance among the Group-of-10 currencies. Even as of Monday, only 21 out of 109 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the euro will trade at $1.20 or higher by the end of the year.

ECB policy makers may not be ready to finalize a decision on their bond-purchase plan until just a couple of weeks before the current program expires, officials familiar with the matter said on Friday. The central bank meets on Sept. 7, and strategists expect President Mario Draghi to step up verbal intervention to halt the euro’s rally.

Even though the pace of further appreciation in the currency may moderate, the euro is likely to be well-supported, according to UniCredit. The euro’s rally shows the pricing out of the excessive euro zone pessimism of the last couple of years and has further to run as portfolio flows turn supportive, London-based strategist Vasileios Gkionakis said in emailed comments. UniCredit predicts the currency is likely to end the year at $1.20, and investors may consider buying any dips toward $1.17.

Commerzbank believes the euro will “lose some ground” against the dollar.

“The ECB will taper more slowly than the market expects, and since the Fed could raise its rate more quickly than the market expects,” there is scope for the euro to adjust lower, Antje Praefcke, a Frankfurt-based strategist, said in emailed comments.

For Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the euro has overshot what recent data would justify. While the bank revised upward its year-end projection from $1.08, it expects the common currency to weaken to $1.15.

“We believe the market is pricing too little for the Fed and too much for the ECB,” strategists including Athanasios Vamvakidis wrote in a note to clients last week. “We see asymmetric risks for a hawkish Fed surprise and a dovish ECB surprise this fall.”

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20six-cylinder%20turbo%20(BMW%20B58)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20340hp%20at%206%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500Nm%20from%201%2C600-4%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ZF%208-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100kph%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.2sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20267kph%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh462%2C189%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWarranty%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030-month%2F48%2C000k%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

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Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

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On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

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Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs

Engine: 5.2-litre twin-turbo V12

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 715bhp

Torque: 900Nm

Price: Dh1,289,376

On sale: now

ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

if you go
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
INFO

Everton 0

Arsenal 0

Man of the Match: Djibril Sidibe (Everton)

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
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Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
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Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Try out the test yourself

Q1 Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 per cent per year. After five years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?
a) More than $102
b) Exactly $102
c) Less than $102
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer

Q2 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 per cent per year and inflation was 2 per cent per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?
a) More than today
b) Exactly the same as today
c) Less than today
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer

Q4 Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
a) True
b) False
d) Do not know
e) Refuse to answer

The “Big Three” financial literacy questions were created by Professors Annamaria Lusardi of the George Washington School of Business and Olivia Mitchell, of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. 

Answers: Q1 More than $102 (compound interest). Q2 Less than today (inflation). Q3 False (diversification).

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

THE BIO

Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.

Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.

Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.

Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.

 

 

The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80

Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km

Politics in the West
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
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Autumn international scores

Saturday, November 24

Italy 3-66 New Zealand
Scotland 14-9 Argentina
England 37-18 Australia