Remember when the biggest controversy in Gulf dealings with the West was the role of sovereign wealth funds?
In the wake of the financial crisis, it now seems quaint to consider that just last summer western banks could afford to be picky about who was giving them money. The moneybags from the Gulf, awash with revenue from oil at nearly $150 a barrel, were seen as sinister forces for political interference, or worse as shadowy front-organisations for extremists. That view is now "so August", as they say in New York.
Hard up American and European banks will accept investment from virtually anybody. (One tongue-in-cheek suggestion recently was that a consortium of Somali pirates had taken advice on an equity investment in Citigroup, before turning down the proposal on grounds of risk.)
But surprise, surprise, the SWFs have begun to doubt that clapped-out western capitalism is an appropriate use of their suddenly-scarcer petrodollars, and are thinking again.
The issue recently received an injection of intellectual muscle in the form of a paper from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Under the editorship of Sven Behrendt and Bassma Kodmani, the impressive list of contributors discusses the central conundrum of SWFs in the post-crisis world: "The custodians of Arab sovereign wealth have found themselves in a precarious situation, having to respond, first, to an external audience when it appeared their influence in the world of finance had substantially increased; and, later, to a domestic audience when it appeared they might have overplayed their hands."
It is a complex issue, with all sorts of economic, financial and socio-political implications, but boils down to two propositions: Arabs should take advantage of the current distress in the west to buy valuable assets at bargain basement prices, as witnessed by Abu Dhabi's recent investment in Daimler; or Gulf governments should focus on their own short-comings, committing to invest in infrastructure, energy and utilities in the Gulf, thereby positioning it as region to lead the post-crisis world.
I feel the tide is running in favour of the latter view, but whichever, the paper is essential reading for Gulf policy-makers.
I wrote recently about the complicated geo-political game being played out around the oil-rich Caspian region, where the western oil giants are trying to get access to precious new reserves in the face of opposition from the Russians, who regard the region as their own post-Soviet backyard.
In the space of a week, events have moved at a quickening pace, especially in Azerbaijan, which is key to the energy ambitions of the West.
The balance of power in the region has been tipped significantly by the announcement that Turkey and Armenia are committing themselves to resolve the century-old hostility between them. If Ankara and Yerevan do reach a deal, it would re-open the trade border between them that was closed in 1993 when Armenia seized the Nagorno-Karabakh region belonging to Turkey's ethnic brother, Azerbaijan. (Pay attention at the back - this is important.)
The Azeris would not like that, unless the Karabakh situation is resolved to their satisfaction. Indeed, they would be so unhappy that Baku might instead do an exclusive energy deal with the Russians, putting in doubt the huge western investment in Caspian oil (led by BP) and jeopardising the prospects for a multi-billion euro Brussels-sponsored plan to transport gas to Europe without going through Russian territory. (No nodding off there - look at the map.)
Russian motives are opaque. On a benign view, they want to help bring peace to the Caucasus; on a more realistic interpretation, they might want to isolate and destroy their main enemy in the region, Georgia.
The risk to western energy supplies, and the significant BP investment there, continues to grow.
fkane@thenational.ae
'Manmarziyaan' (Colour Yellow Productions, Phantom Films)
Director: Anurag Kashyap
Cast: Abhishek Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Vicky Kaushal
Rating: 3.5/5
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Brief scoreline:
Al Wahda 2
Al Menhali 27', Tagliabue 79'
Al Nassr 3
Hamdallah 41', Giuliano 45 1', 62'
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.