Importing Kurdish oil and gas directly would fracture Turkey's relations with Iraq's central government. Azad Lashkari / Reuters
Importing Kurdish oil and gas directly would fracture Turkey's relations with Iraq's central government. Azad Lashkari / Reuters

Turkey takes a big leap forward over energy security



Last month I wrote how Turkey needed to rebuild constructive relations with its energy-rich neighbours. Two dramatic announcements later, and it seems to have done just that.

But big obstacles still lie in the way of improving Turkish energy security: Baghdad, a Mediterranean island, and the Kremlin.

On Thursday, Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the PKK Kurdish separatist organisation, called a ceasefire. This capped years of cautious negotiations between Mr Öcalan, in jail since 1999, and the Turkish government.

On Friday, the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologised on the phone to his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for the death of nine Turks in the 2010 storming of a ship that was taking aid to Gaza.

And a week ago, dramatic happenings on the island of Cyprus: the terms of the European Union-led bank bailout required depositors to pay a 10 per cent levy, triggering anger and frantic last-minute negotiations.

What is the energy significance of these events? They may open routes for two of the most exciting current oil and gas discoveries to reach markets, enhancing Turkey's economy and energy security on the way. The Turks need gas in particular to fuel their growing economy, that has become too dependent on Russia and on supplies from Iran threatened by sanctions and winter disruptions.

The 29-year insurgency waged by the PKK in south-east Turkey may be nearing its end. The Kurds of Syria have largely thrown off central government control. The Syrian Kurds have balanced ambiguously between the president Bashar Al Assad's government and the Syrian opposition, and gaining leverage over them has become urgent for Ankara.

Under Mr Erdogan, Turkey has developed increasingly close economic links with the autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq, where international companies have found major oil and gasfields.

But independent Kurdish oil and gas sales are blocked by Iraqi government policy, and relations between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional authorities in Erbil have deteriorated sharply.

Permitting direct large-scale exports would require the Turks to take the dramatic step of breaking with the Iraq central government. For now, this is a pipeline too far - but a solution to the Kurdish dispute surely brings an Ankara-Baghdad showdown closer.

Meanwhile, in the eastern Mediterranean, Israel has found some 30 trillion cubic feet of gas, enough to supply it for the next 80 years. Cyprus has also discovered a major field, and Lebanon is launching exploration this year.

Mr Netanyahu's apology to Mr Erdogan adds to recent rumours of discussions over a pipeline. This is probably the cheapest way for Israeli gas to get to Turkey and Europe - and would help to rebuild a key regional alliance for Tel Aviv.

But Israel's route to Turkey is blocked by Lebanon - with whom it is technically at war - and Cyprus, divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriots.

Turkey disputes the right of the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus to explore for gas, in the absence of a political settlement.

When the deposit haircut was announced, the Cypriot government offered to compensate savers with "gas bonds" backed by future revenue from its hoped-for offshore gas fields.

The idea then emerged for Russia's Gazprombank, loosely linked to its state gas giant Gazprom, to offer its own bailout, in return for stakes in those fields. This would allow the Kremlin to defeat, divert or delay a threat to its market dominance.

Turkey has opposed the use of Cypriot gas to pay such compensation. But to make use of the thaw with Israel, and access Mediterranean gas, Mr Erdogan will have to replicate his Kurdish rapprochement with Cyprus. Foreign governments may be lesser obstacles to Turkish energy security than domestic nationalists.

Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon

THE SPECS

      

 

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LAST-16 FIXTURES

Sunday, January 20
3pm: Jordan v Vietnam at Al Maktoum Stadium, Dubai
6pm: Thailand v China at Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: Iran v Oman at Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Monday, January 21
3pm: Japan v Saudi Arabia at Sharjah Stadium
6pm: Australia v Uzbekistan at Khalifa bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
9pm: UAE v Kyrgyzstan at Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi

Tuesday, January 22
5pm: South Korea v Bahrain at Rashid Stadium, Dubai
8pm: Qatar v Iraq at Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi

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The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

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The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
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Based: Tunisia 
 
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Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
The specs
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The specs

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