The global economy could lose between $1.7 trillion and $2.4tn in 2021 as a result of the coronavirus-induced contraction in the tourism industry, with developing countries expected to shoulder the biggest burden.
The estimated economic losses in 2021, which are worse than previously projected, are caused by the pandemic’s direct impact on tourism and the ripple effects in closely related sectors, the UN Conference on Trade and Development said in a report on Wednesday.
Taking into account the indirect effects, a drop in tourism receipts may lead to a two-and-half-fold loss in global economic output on average, in the absence of any stimulus measures, it said.
In a pessimistic scenario, in which tourist arrivals drop by an average of 74 per cent this year, compared with 2019, global tourism receipts are expected to drop by about $1tn and wipe out $2.4tn in global domestic product.
In an optimistic scenario, with a drop in tourist arrivals averaging 63 per cent, tourism revenue is set to fall by $695 billion, leading to a $1.7tn loss in GDP.
The third scenario assumes a 75 per cent reduction in tourism arrivals in countries with low vaccination rates and a 37 per cent reduction in countries with relatively high vaccination rates. In this case, the global economy would lose about $1.8tn, compared with 2019 levels.
The travel and tourism sector was among the worst hit around the world last year as Covid-19 disrupted trade, sparked lockdowns, shut borders, grounded air travel and plunged the global economy into its deepest recession since the Great Depression.
The world economy contracted by 3.3 per cent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. It is now set to grow 6 per cent this year.
The recovery, which depends on countries’ access to Covid-19 vaccines, will be highly uneven, with low vaccination rates expected to deter tourists from visiting developing countries, the UN agency said.
“The recovery will depend, to a large extent, on the uptake of vaccines, the removal and co-ordination among countries of travel restrictions and the rebuilding of travellers’ confidence,” Unctad said.
At a regional level, the major beneficiaries of a quick rebound in tourism in absolute terms are the US, France, Germany, the UK and Switzerland.
“These countries have high levels of tourists and high vaccination rates,” Unctad said.
If labour and capital could be readily re-employed in other industries, the overall impact of a fall in tourism demand would be somewhat less than its direct effects, it said.
The loss of tourism receipts would be partially offset by output in other sectors.
This is difficult to do in the short run in developing countries that depend on tourism, but more achievable in the longer run, said Unctad.
With tourism not expected to fully recover until perhaps 2023, the UN agency highlighted three main policy recommendations.
The first is to put tourism back on track in developing countries and elsewhere.
“Much needs to be done to restore the confidence of travellers, who are concerned about health and the risk of cancelled travel plans and becoming stranded overseas,” Unctad said.
“Vaccinations seem the most important element.”
Secondly, countries must mitigate the impact of tourism losses on livelihoods.
Third, countries need to make strategic decisions regarding the sector’s place in their economies in the future.
“Developing countries dependent on tourism might consider how they can diversify resources away from tourism,” it said.
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Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
Rock in a Hard Place: Music and Mayhem in the Middle East
Orlando Crowcroft
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
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How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
THE BIO
Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old
Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai
Favourite Book: The Alchemist
Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail
Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna
Favourite cuisine: Italian food
Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
