Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury, ADS Securities Market Strategist. The National
Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury, ADS Securities Market Strategist. The National

Trader profile: Month ahead is all about US tapering, says ADS Securities strategist



Name: Nour Eldeen Al Hammoury

Job title: Market strategist, ADS Securities

Number of years investing: 9

Where are you based: Abu Dhabi

What is the asset class and geography you are focused on?

Foreign exchange, equities, bonds and money market instruments

What is the outlook for the month ahead?

The month ahead for all the financial markets will all be about tapering and whether the United States Federal Reserve continues with its quantitative easing (QE) policies. The first announcement from its new vice chairman, Janet Yellen, earlier this month was very dovish.

She indicated that QE would continue until at least the first quarter of next year. In response to this the foreign-exchange markets have been relatively stable and we would look for the euro to gain against the US dollar heading towards the 1.40 mark.

I would also be bullish on the dollar versus yen, expecting this to push to the 103.7 level. At the moment, the equity markets appear to be over-bought but investors are still willing to buy especially as there is no sign of tapering any time soon and prices could go even higher. I am keeping out of this market as it is possible that Ms Yellen will surprise the markets and raise quantitative easing next year.

What are the main risks (either upside or downside) to the outlook?

The main risk for the time being is from economic data and how this will impact the Fed policy. As I have said, Ms Yellen was very dovish in her first testimony, which suggests that she cannot see a way of ending QE in the short term. In the new year, the Fed balance sheet will be above US$4 trillion and the question remains can they start tightening up money supply after such a massive amount after tapering? The issue of tapering may be easier to deal with than the issues which will be created when tapering stops. I think we will need to keep a very close watch on future economic data as this will be very influential in the Fed’s decision-making process.

What is the best investment at the moment?

Even though most analysts are saying that gold is not a safe haven any more, I think the opposite. Over the next couple of months with the uncertainty over the Fed’s policy and the problem of the equity bubble I believe that gold will remain the best safe haven. Gold could have already bottomed at $1,180 per ounce and we could be looking for a new record high in the coming months. I am also following the news from Beijing and the comments from Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of the People’s Bank of China. The renminbi [yuan] has already strengthened by 2.25 per cent against the dollar this year and if and when the PBOC stops direct intervention to keep the renminbi weak, there is significant potential for the currency to set new levels against the dollar.

What was the best investment you were involved in?

In 2008 during the financial crisis I bought gold, Citi stocks, sold British pound versus the dollar at 1.76 to 1.38 and the euro versus the dollar at 1.45 to 1.27. There was also very good profit from going long on Apple ($400) at the beginning of last year.

What was the worst?

Gold longs last year around $1,600, New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar longs around 0.83, Facebook after its initial public offering and RIM longs.

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Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history

4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon

- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.

50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater

1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.  

1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.

1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.

-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.

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Company%20profile
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What are NFTs?

Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.

You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”

However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.

This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”

This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.

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Analysis

Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
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  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

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Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

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  • Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
  • How do we shape the future?

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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