If 2011 was a remarkable year for oil exporters, 2012 was a Wonderland. Last year, for the first time, the oil price averaged more than US$100 per barrel of Brent crude. This year, the price has been even higher - $111.90. As Lewis Carroll's Alice would have observed, it was curiouser and curiouser that such high prices persisted despite a weak global economy and rising stocks.
Reflecting on the high oil prices from 2003 until now reveals three key drivers. Developing Asian countries, above all China, were undergoing economic booms and fast-rising demand. Non-Opec production was weak. And therefore Opec, enjoying tight markets, was able to maintain discipline - making sharp production cuts to revive prices after the 2008 economic crash.
Over the past decade, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait made only measured increases in production while potential rivals - Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria - struggled.
These factors persisted this year. Although China's demand grew only moderately, developing countries' consumption again outweighed declines in developed nations. Some significant non-Opec producers were below capacity - Syria and Yemen felled by civil war and sabotage; South Sudan by a transit dispute with Sudan; Colombia by guerrilla attacks; and China and Brazil by oil spills. And, just as Libya was largely removed from Opec's production total by its revolution last year, so Iran's exports have been halved this year by sanctions.
Next year could look rather different even if the geopolitical imponderables remain. Nigeria might be racked by further civil unrest; there might be conflict involving Iran; and the Syrian struggle seems set to grind on.
Still, as the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies points out, South Sudan appears likely to reach a deal with Khartoum; Libya has further room for recovery from its revolutionary conflict; and Kuwait, having unexpectedly reached 3 million barrels per day (bpd), is enjoying its windfall.
And oil output in the United States, driven by production from shale oil, should register another bumper year, as a single state, North Dakota, overtook the Opec member Ecuador last year, and Qatar this year.
Shale developments are spreading to Canada; Australia is next; Russia and Argentina on the horizon. The great imponderable is Iraq. Output has risen significantly this year, helping to sustain US sanctions against Iran. But constraints on export pipelines, bureaucracy and the continuing dispute with the autonomous Kurdish region will keep Iraq short of its ambitious goals. Nevertheless, while the total requirement for Opec crude is likely to fall next year, Iraq's share will increase.
The bursting of the internet bubble in 2000 and the property crash in 2008 should have reminded us all not to believe in looking-glass worlds.
Next year things could settle down. The most bearish forecasting group, Raymond James, expects prices to drop as low as $80, but with the consensus forecast of $107.50 still near historic highs, Gulf producers can make modest production cuts to survive, and even prosper.
Some of their peers are, like Carroll's Red Queen, running as fast as they can just to stand still.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
RESULTS
Bantamweight: Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) beat Hamza Bougamza (MAR)
Catchweight 67kg: Mohamed El Mesbahi (MAR) beat Fouad Mesdari (ALG)
Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali (UAE) beat Abdelhak Amhidra (MAR)
Catchweight 73kg: Mosatafa Ibrahim Radi (PAL) beat Yazid Chouchane (ALG)
Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Badreddine Diani (MAR)
Catchweight 78KG: Rashed Dawood (UAE) beat Adnan Bushashy (ALG)
Middleweight: Sallah-Eddine Dekhissi (MAR) beat Abdel Enam (EGY)
Catchweight 65kg: Yanis Ghemmouri (ALG) beat Rachid Hazoume (MAR)
Lightweight: Mohammed Yahya (UAE) beat Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 79kg: Souhil Tahiri (ALG) beat Omar Hussein (PAL)
Middleweight: Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Laid Zerhouni (ALG)
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Review: Tomb Raider
Dir: Roar Uthaug
Starring: Alicia Vikander, Dominic West, Daniel Wu, Walter Goggins
two stars
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
MATCH INFO
Argentina 47 (Tries: Sanchez, Tuculet (2), Mallia (2), De La Fuente, Bertranou; Cons: Sanchez 5, Urdapilleta)
United States 17 (Tries: Scully (2), Lasike; Cons: MacGinty)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Women & Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile Books and London Review of Books
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
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Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%203%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Einer%20Rubio%20(COL)%20Movistar%20Team%20-%204h51%E2%80%9924%E2%80%9D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20-%2014%22%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20-%2015%22%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20classifications%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders)%20-%207%22%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pello%20Bilbao%20(ESP)%20Bahrain%20Victorious%20-%2011%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
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World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Company%20Profile
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The biog
Hobby: Playing piano and drawing patterns
Best book: Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins
Food of choice: Sushi
Favourite colour: Orange
