Threat to US and EU but Gulf set fair

Government finances from Italy to India are likely to come under severe strain from slower global economic growth.

Financial Fallout: Read The National's coverage of the global economic chaos

World view bleak but picture looks brighter in the Middle East Declines in markets are raising the likelihood of another global slowdown. If the world does lurch back into recession, economists say the MIddle East is in a better position to weather the economic storm. read article

Local tourism and retail at some risk Consumer spending is expected to remain buoyant across the Middle East should there be another economic slowdown across the world. Read article

UAE banks proactive on mortgages UAE lenders are starting to aggressively target homebuyers for the first time since US mortgage defaults sparked the 2008 global meltdown. read article

Asia may put GCC on slippery slope An economic slowdown threatens fuel demand, but Opec is likely to act if oil prices far too fall. read article

Small businesses can take shelter With the threat of a second global downturn looming large, both small businesses and investors have a lot to lose. read article

Already bogged down by record budget deficits and weak economies, the governments of the US and Europe are likely to be most vulnerable. In contrast, the Gulf and Asia should cope better, supported by healthier fiscal positions.

The biggest risk is from lower demand for oil, sinking prices. Of the six GCC states, Bahrain's small economy is viewed by analysts as most at risk to a market slide.

"Regional governments will still be willing to spend if oil prices drop as they have low debt compared to the rest of the world so they can borrow at low interest rates to fund spending," says Said Hirsh, a Middle East economist at Capital Economics.

In Asia, a fall in commodity prices and a drop in interest rates should help to support economies.

Slowing growth could harm the banking system. Banks in the US and Europe will be concerned about their exposure to debt worries on both sides of the Atlantic.

An uncertain economic outlook is likely to deter mergers and acquisitions and other lucrative deals that global investment banks rely on.

In the local region, however, most banks' balance sheets are considered sufficiently robust to withstand any risks from weaker economic growth. Many have stronger capital adequacy levels than lenders in the US and Europe. They also have relatively limited ties to European banks with links to the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis.

The US Federal Reserve's decision last week to keep interest rates at record lows for another two years is likely to mean interest rates in the GCC remain deflated. With five of the six local currencies pegged to the US dollar, regional monetary policy usually mirrors the Fed's.

"Low interest rates are positive for real estate, as lending rates should continue coming down, reducing the cost of risk as well," says Jaap Meijer,the head of banks research at AlembicHC.

Meanwhile, investors will be viewing markets differently over the next two quarters, says Mohammed Ali Yasin, the chief investment officer at CAPM Investment in Abu Dhabi. "They will be looking at economies with a surplus … with companies that distribute strong dividend yields, and based on that we should see a different asset allocation across the world."

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COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Lamsa

Founder: Badr Ward

Launched: 2014

Employees: 60

Based: Abu Dhabi

Sector: EdTech

Funding to date: $15 million

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

Karwaan

Producer: Ronnie Screwvala

Director: Akarsh Khurana

Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar

Rating: 4/5

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

COMPANY%20PROFILE

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlanRadar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2013%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EIbrahim%20Imam%2C%20Sander%20van%20de%20Rijdt%2C%20Constantin%20K%C3%B6ck%2C%20Clemens%20Hammerl%2C%20Domagoj%20Dolinsek%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVienna%2C%20Austria%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EConstruction%20and%20real%20estate%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400%2B%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20B%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Headline%2C%20Berliner%20Volksbank%20Ventures%2C%20aws%20Gr%C3%BCnderfonds%2C%20Cavalry%20Ventures%2C%20Proptech1%2C%20Russmedia%2C%20GR%20Capital%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Company profile

Date started: January, 2014

Founders: Mike Dawson, Varuna Singh, and Benita Rowe

Based: Dubai

Sector: Education technology

Size: Five employees

Investment: $100,000 from the ExpoLive Innovation Grant programme in 2018 and an initial $30,000 pre-seed investment from the Turn8 Accelerator in 2014. Most of the projects are government funded.

Partners/incubators: Turn8 Accelerator; In5 Innovation Centre; Expo Live Innovation Impact Grant Programme; Dubai Future Accelerators; FHI 360; VSO and Consult and Coach for a Cause (C3)

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

THE POPE'S ITINERARY

Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport

Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial

Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
not be younger than 25 years old
not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.