Saturday is Valentine's Day, which gives everyone just two more days to buy something for that special someone. A lot of people go in for the traditional box of chocolates, the bunch of red roses, or that fancy dinner in a romantic restaurant where they can stare into each other's eyes over candlelit meals.
For the financially (or romantically) challenged, there's always the mass-produced Valentine's card.
In this financially challenging environment, though, it's hard to feel too lovey-dovey. One greeting card company in the US has come up with a way to beat economic doom into Valentine's ploughshares by developing cards with Great Depression-themed messages. "I made you a Valentine," reads one of the Order of St Nick's "Depressing Times" cards, "but I had to burn it in a trash can to stay warm".
Another shows a man, presumably a banker, telling another: "Box of chocolates? She'll be lucky to get a box of rocks from me this year."
A little gallows humour always helps to lighten the mood, although it is unlikely to produce exactly the kind of amorous atmosphere Valentine's sweethearts may be hoping for come Saturday night.
Stocks used to be the way to win them over. A few shares of Google or Apple used to go down a treat. Until last July, oil and mining stocks were truly the way to say "I love you".
There are plenty of analysts who will tell you that the latest declines in stocks make them a bargain. And by traditional measures there is plenty to warm to. The average price-to-earnings ratio for stocks on Dubai's benchmark index is about 3.6, which would look like a runaway steal if you hadn't picked up a newspaper in the past three months.
The problem with using price-to-earnings, or P/E ratios, to value stocks is that it fails to take into account the outlook for earnings, which is what stock prices tend to reflect. These days the outlook seems to be going south everywhere, so it's important not to go cherry-picking for market bargains and end up with a basket full of lemons.
Paul Schulte, a strategist at Nomura International in Hong Kong, has suggested looking at stocks based not on their price, but on their relative ability to survive the global credit crisis without going bust. That's a quality that would exist only in the eye of the beholder if it weren't for a gentleman named Edward Altman, who in 1968 developed something called a Z-score to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt. Never mind how it works, it's a potent concoction that includes a pinch of working capital, a dab of retained earnings, a dollop of earnings, equity and a dash of sales all on a bed of assets. Companies that have scores over a certain level are considered healthy. Others below that fall into a hazy area of sickness and those below a certain threshold are considered infected.
Mr Schulte and his colleagues used the Altman Z-scores to compile a sampling of Asian stocks. Applying the same lens on stocks in Dubai and Abu Dhabi yields a shortlist of healthy offerings. But keep in mind that the Altman Z doesn't apply to financial companies, which dominate indexes here, and many companies in the UAE don't provide enough data to compile a score - a red flag of its own.
Topping the list of durable issues is Arkan Building Materials, the Abu Dhabi-based construction company whose stock just happens to have risen about 48 per cent this month. Then comes Abu Dhabi National Hotels, International Fish Farming, and Aramex, the logistics company. The violence in Gaza may give some pause, but next on the list is Palestine Telecom, followed by Sharjah Cement, Gulf Pharmaceutical, the dominant UAE phone company Etisalat, food and beverage company Agthia and Fujairah Cement.
Why not take a shopping trip overseas to let the object of your desire dabble in diversification? Economists warn that with governments borrowing big or warming up the printing presses to try to spend their way out of recession that the safest havens for cash are countries with fat current-account surpluses. No, not the US. Or Britain. Avoid Costa Rica and Morocco. Romania and Estonia are straight out.
The list of best-insulated economies includes some surprises. If current accounts be the food of financial stability, consider a romantic getaway to Malaysia, which tops the list of current-account surpluses relative to economic size. It is followed by fellow resource exporters Papua New Guinea and Kuwait. Another oil exporter, Venezuela, comes in fourth, and then thrifty Singapore and China. Next come Croatia, Kazakhstan and the tax-haven of Luxembourg. And rounding out the list is Russia - Moscow is just lovely this time of year, snugly cold with a sprinkling of snow.
The more conservative suitor may be more comfortable this year, however, giving gold - classic, lustrous and if Morgan Stanley is correct, one of the best hedges against the attempt by global governments to reflate their economies. Gold has long been considered a bulwark against inflation, so it has suffered of late amid fears that the world may face deflation.
But an increasing number of economists worry that inflation may be around the corner, particularly in the wake of the Obama administration's roughly US$3.3 trillion (Dh12.12tn) package of fiscal stimulus and financial assistance announced this week.
Morgan Stanley's commodities analysts predict that gold, now trading at about $925 per ounce, will rise to roughly $1,000 an ounce next year, and $1,050 in 2011. Truly a Valentine's gift that could keep on giving.
warnold@thenational.ae
Three ways to get a gratitude glow
By committing to at least one of these daily, you can bring more gratitude into your life, says Ong.
- During your morning skincare routine, name five things you are thankful for about yourself.
- As you finish your skincare routine, look yourself in the eye and speak an affirmation, such as: “I am grateful for every part of me, including my ability to take care of my skin.”
- In the evening, take some deep breaths, notice how your skin feels, and listen for what your skin is grateful for.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Results:
First Test: New Zealand 30 British & Irish Lions 15
Second Test: New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
Third Test: New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
more from Janine di Giovanni
Women & Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile Books and London Review of Books
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Racecard
5pm: Al Maha Stables – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
7pm: The President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m
7.30pm: The President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m
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Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Votes
Total votes: 1.8 million
Ashraf Ghani: 923,592 votes
Abdullah Abdullah: 720,841 votes
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Cinco in numbers
Dh3.7 million
The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown
46
The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.
1,000
The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]
50
How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday
3,000
The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.
1.1 million
The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
The specs: 2018 Jeep Compass
Price, base: Dh100,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.4L four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 184bhp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 237Nm at 3,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.4L / 100km
Command%20Z
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Stree
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5
