The GCC’s challenges and silver linings in funding pension payments



The effect of demographics on the economy has been one of increasing concern for countries with ageing populations.

The poster child for this issue is Japan, although increasingly more countries in the Western Hemisphere are beginning to take notice as well.

The main issue is that declining population growth rates and in some cases population contractions are severely challenging the historical funding of retirees, with tax revenue collected from a working population that is greater in number.

This crisis has not been satisfactorily resolved in any of the countries facing these challenges, with the most popular government solution being to extend the retirement age so as to delay pension payments to pensioners. Other approaches include phasing in retirement payments over time. As you may expect, these solutions are unpopular with the older generations.

The other main approach of closing the near-global retirement crisis is to increase taxes on the workforce. This alienates the younger people who view such a strategy as simply having them work so that others can benefit.

As always, it is instructive to try and learn from others. What are the demographics in the GCC? Will they change in ways similar to the rest of the world? How will this impact the economy?

There are currently two marked differences between the situation in the GCC and in the economies that I mentioned above. The first is that the GCC population growth rate remains strong, some might say too strong. The second is the low levels of income tax revenue. Public pension funds are funded via revenue that is far more fixed in quantum, given the current near total absence of personal and corporate income tax.

Widening the scope out to investigate second order issues, the increase in longevity in the GCC countries brought about by vastly improved healthcare systems as well as greater education on healthier lifestyles, is an extremely positive aspect of the modern-day GCC. However, this increased longevity changes the calculus of retirement as longer lifespans lead to greater pension requirements at a time of life when healthcare costs are increasing markedly.

Another important issue with respect to funding pensions in the GCC is the growth rate in the cost of living. In fast-growing economies, the cost of living will grow much faster than the global average. This creates further challenges, as maintaining quality-of-living levels for pensioners requires either greater contributions or better returns on investment for the pension funds.

Are there any silver linings in this morass of grave news? Well, I’m not sure that increased longevity is necessarily bad news, so let us restrict the issue to funding pensions. For the GCC, there are three silver linings:

First, the countries of the GCC are young. Any funding deficits that might exist will be small relative to those found in countries with older pension schemes.

Second, the younger generations are vastly greater than the retiring generation, making any extra funding necessary relatively small as it is spread across a wider base.

The final silver lining is peculiar to the GCC. The region has a large percentage of the population who are expatriates and are therefore not necessarily covered by the local governments’ pension schemes. This is key, as local pension plan funding needs are therefore small relative to the GDP generated by these economies.

These silver linings do not mean that pension planning can be ignored. What it does mean is that the challenges the GCC faces are different than other emerging markets or even mature markets. The UAE’s approach so far has been exemplary. The next step is to either boost contributions, improve returns on investment or manage the expectations of our younger generations with respect to financial quality of life at retirement.

If we don’t, we will face a much more acute problem than that faced by current mature economies, which are pushing the retirement age from about 60 years old to about 70 years old and we might have to issue the first pension cheque about a week before the retired employee retires from life.

Sabah Al Binali is an active investor and entrepreneurial leader with a track record of financing, building and growing companies in the Mena region. You can read more of his thoughts at al-binali.com.

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The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
match info

Chelsea 2
Willian (13'), Ross Barkley (64')

Liverpool 0

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Fireball

Moscow claimed it hit the largest military fuel storage facility in Ukraine, triggering a huge fireball at the site.

A plume of black smoke rose from a fuel storage facility in the village of Kalynivka outside Kyiv on Friday after Russia said it had destroyed the military site with Kalibr cruise missiles.

"On the evening of March 24, Kalibr high-precision sea-based cruise missiles attacked a fuel base in the village of Kalynivka near Kyiv," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine confirmed the strike, saying the village some 40 kilometres south-west of Kyiv was targeted.

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A foster couple or family must:

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Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav

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AndhaDhun

Director: Sriram Raghavan

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Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan

Rating: 3.5/5

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million