While many developed countries are still bemoaning the pace of their recovery, Thailand's export-led economy is growing at an impressive clip.
Last year, export growth was over 28 per cent, and the number of foreign visitors to the country grew 12 per cent. Meanwhile, private investment was up more than 13 per cent, while domestic consumption increased nearly 5 per cent.
Granted, the country suffered a brief recession last year, with the economy shrinking 0.6 per cent in the second quarter and 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, but the strong export growth helped the economy to reverse course and grow 1.2 per cent in the last three months of last year.
That meant that for all of last year, the GDP of South East Asia's second-largest economy grew by 7.8 per cent, a strong performance within the region and a figure that the US and European countries can only dream about.
Considering that political turmoil on the streets of Bangkok in April and May last year left 91 people dead, Thailand's economic strength is even more remarkable. During the upheaval, the army moved into the city twice to clear anti-government protesters demanding the resignation of the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva.
However, while tourism in the capital took a temporary hit, Thailand's exports and personal consumption grew throughout the unrest. Nor has economic growth been affected by ongoing instability on three of the country's borders. Just last month, clashes between Thai and Cambodian forces on the country's eastern border left eight Cambodian soldiers and three Thais dead.
Thailand's economy, then and now, seems immune to its political problems, yet its resilience will be tested anew this year.
First, the anti-government demonstrations last year, which protested against the legitimacy of Mr Abhisit's unelected government, were only postponed, rather than eliminated, by a government clampdown and the arrest of several opposition leaders on terrorism charges.
At the time of this writing, the Puea Thai party, Thailand's main opposition party, was preparing to submit a parliamentary motion of no confidence in the prime minister because of his government's use of force to disperse protesters last year.
Opposition was also temporarily abated by the prime minister's commitment to dissolve parliament and hold new elections, which he says he will do by June this year.
However, Mr Abhisit has promised fresh elections before and failed to deliver, so no one can be certain that elections will take place on schedule.
A peaceful transition will also depend not just on whether elections are held, but whether the outcome is accepted, since opposition leaders are sceptical that Mr Abhisit will go quietly if he loses.
Clearly, given the level of distrust between the opposing parties, there is a strong possibility of fresh protests and more political volatility even if voters go to the polls in the coming months.
Second, the Thai economy is not expected to grow so robustly this year. Thailand's strong growth and rising domestic prices and incomes could lead to a spike in inflation this year, particularly if oil prices continue to rise.
There are also worries that export growth this year will be limited by the sluggish recovery of developed countries and by the continued appreciation of the Thai baht.
At the moment, there are no signs that Thai inflation is out of control. Headline inflation in the country is only 3.03 per cent, and unlike many central banks, the Bank of Thailand has not been afraid to raise interest rates, doing so four times since July last year. However, Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board has forecast that economic growth will be more fragile this year, slowing to between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent. So fending off the economic impact of another period of political instability could be more difficult this time around.
At the same time, although Thailand's rising commodity prices and growing exports are good news for the country's manufacturers and farmers right now, a bout of inflation might make popular anger against the government even more intense.
Thailand's resilience is undoubtedly impressive to date, but the economy is not out of the woods just yet.
business@thenational.ae
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
SPECS
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
Baby Driver
Director: Edgar Wright
Starring: Ansel Elgort, Kevin Spacey, Jamie Foxx, Lily James
Three and a half stars
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Levante v Real Mallorca (12am)
Leganes v Barcelona (4pm)
Real Betis v Valencia (7pm)
Granada v Atletico Madrid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad (12am)
Espanyol v Getafe (3pm)
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao (5pm)
Eibar v Alaves (7pm)
Villarreal v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Real Valladolid v Sevilla (12am)
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
more from Janine di Giovanni
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Stuck in a job without a pay rise? Here's what to do
Chris Greaves, the managing director of Hays Gulf Region, says those without a pay rise for an extended period must start asking questions – both of themselves and their employer.
“First, are they happy with that or do they want more?” he says. “Job-seeking is a time-consuming, frustrating and long-winded affair so are they prepared to put themselves through that rigmarole? Before they consider that, they must ask their employer what is happening.”
Most employees bring up pay rise queries at their annual performance appraisal and find out what the company has in store for them from a career perspective.
Those with no formal appraisal system, Mr Greaves says, should ask HR or their line manager for an assessment.
“You want to find out how they value your contribution and where your job could go,” he says. “You’ve got to be brave enough to ask some questions and if you don’t like the answers then you have to develop a strategy or change jobs if you are prepared to go through the job-seeking process.”
For those that do reach the salary negotiation with their current employer, Mr Greaves says there is no point in asking for less than 5 per cent.
“However, this can only really have any chance of success if you can identify where you add value to the business (preferably you can put a monetary value on it), or you can point to a sustained contribution above the call of duty or to other achievements you think your employer will value.”
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe
Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
