Which metal stands to gain most from the coming electric vehicle and energy storage revolution?
Lithium? Cobalt? Nickel?
All have strong claims to future fame in the evolving battery technology race that is driving the first phase of what might be called the "technology supercycle".
The answer, though, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), is actually tin.
MIT's analysis, originally commissioned by Rio Tinto, is based on the fact that tin is the glue, quite literally in the form of solder, that binds circuit boards together. That puts it centre stage as the world moves beyond electric vehicles to advanced robotics and the internet of things. The findings are surprising. Even the International Tin Association (ITA) seems to have been caught off guard and is now researching further tin's potential applications in the next wave of technological innovation.
Moreover, no-one seems to have told the tin market, which at a current $18,700 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is close to July's two-year low of $18,300.
Apathy has been the defining feature of tin so far this year, which has at least cushioned the market from the macro selling that has hit the rest of the LME complex.
That may be about to change, however.
Not because of any potential future step-change in usage but because of two very immediate supply events.
One of the reasons tin has been so becalmed this year is because of a relatively stable supply picture, particularly in Indonesia, the world's largest exporter. Indonesian exports in the first nine months of this year totalled 63,000 tonnes, up 13 percent on 2017. October exports, however, slumped to 5,109 tonnes, the lowest monthly total since April, and could fall further over the remainder of 2018.
The cause has been a breakdown in the certification process used to ensure the cluster of independent miners and smelters operating from the tin-rich islands of Bangka and Belitung are adhering to environmental and permitting regulations.
State-owned PT Surveyor Indonesia is currently being investigated by the police for allegedly "accommodating, utilising, processing and refining, transporting [and] selling" minerals from sources without permits. That in turn has led the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) to suspend trading of any tin that has passed through Surveyor Indonesia's books. Since exports have to be pre-traded on the ICDX, the collapse in tin trading on the ICDX is a leading indicator of a hiatus in exports.
It's a throwback to the past, when the Indonesian government's attempts to tighten its grip on the country's independent tin sector regularly disrupted export flows. And, based on past experience, the impact will be a temporary dislocation of availability, several months of low exports followed by accelerated flows as and when the export registration logjam is cleared.
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However, short-term hits to Indonesian supply are set to coincide with a significant downturn in production in China, the world's other tin production powerhouse.
Here the issue is the supply of tin raw materials from Myanmar, which has emerged as a major source of concentrates for China's tin smelters over the past five years.
Analysts have long cautioned about the sustainability of Myanmar tin supply, which originates from the Wa region of the country.
This year those warnings are being realised.
Imports of tin concentrates from Myanmar fell by 26 per cent to 184,000 tonnes bulk weight in the first 10 months of this year. The ITA estimates a smaller 6 per cent decline in terms of the amount of tin contained in those concentrates, but that grade offset has been achieved by treating historic stocks of ore at the mines.
Stocks have fallen from around 1.9 million tonnes in early July last year to around 400,000 tonnes at present, with newly mined ore coming with declining grades, according to the ITA. China's smelters are expected to react by lifting domestic production of tin ore, but that will take time, not least because of the country's ever tighter environmental controls on the mining sector. In the short term, therefore, several leading producers such as Yunnan Tin are taking extended downtime for maintenance and repairs.
The ITA is expecting national refined tin production to slump by 30 per cent in the fourth quarter, feeding into an 8 per cent slide in annual 2018 production.
The supply disruption in China is a major input into the ITA's forecast that the tin market will be in supply deficit to the tune of 7,500 tonnes this year. That doesn't sound like much but is significant in the context of a 350,000-tonne global market.
But don't expect that deficit automatically to translate into higher tin prices. Relatively stable production in both China and Indonesia in the first part of this year has left the supply chain with a comfortable inventory cushion.
Immediate demand prospects, meanwhile, are poor. The ITA is expecting global usage growth to drop from four percent this year to flat next year. The weakness is coming from China, also the world's largest user, where already faltering growth in the electronics sector risks further deterioration as trade tensions escalate with the United States.
The ITA's forecast of a 500-tonne surplus next year is hardly the stuff to whet the appetite of the world's hedge funds. And even if they were interested, the low liquidity of the LME tin contract prevents all but the bravest from getting involved. But if MIT is right in its findings, there is a slow-burn bull fuse smoking away in the tiny tin market.
Electric vehicles are only the first potential demand kicker as researchers experiment with tin in lithium ion battery anodes.
The secondary and tertiary demand impulses will, according to MIT, come from advanced robotics, computation and the Internet of Things.
The changes will be far more incremental than those seen in markets such as cobalt, where the impact of EV battery demand has already roiled prices. But they will serve to reinvigorate a market that has struggled to deal with largely static demand drivers in recent years.
Eventually.
For now, tin's fortunes will, once again, be beholden to what happens in the world's two largest producers.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
Company%20Profile
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UAE WARRIORS RESULTS
Featherweight
Azouz Anwar (EGY) beat Marcelo Pontes (BRA)
TKO round 2
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) beat Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Split points decision
Welterweight
Gimbat Ismailov (RUS) beat Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR)
TKO round 1
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) beat Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Unanimous points decision
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) beat Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
TKO round 1
Catchweight 100kg
Marc Vleiger (NED) beat Mohamed Ali (EGY)
Rear neck choke round 1
Featherweight
James Bishop (NZ) beat Mark Valerio (PHI)
TKO round 2
Welterweight
Abdelghani Saber (EGY) beat Gerson Carvalho (BRA)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) beat Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Unanimous points decision
Bantamweight
Fabio Mello (BRA) beat Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Unanimous points decision
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magomedsultanov (RUS)
TKO round 1
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) beat Jayson Margallo (PHI)
TKO round 3
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) beat Roman Golovinov (UKR)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Submission round 2
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
TKO round 2
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
HAJJAN
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
THE%20SPECS
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
Drishyam 2
Directed by: Jeethu Joseph
Starring: Mohanlal, Meena, Ansiba, Murali Gopy
Rating: 4 stars
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Oppenheimer
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Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
