If there’s an upside to a downturn it’s that short sellers get to make a buck.
By borrowing shares, investors can sell what they don’t own. If the price falls, they buy the stock back at a cheaper level and return it to the lender (with interest), pocketing the difference. Assuming the shares fall enough and borrowing costs aren’t too high, a short seller can make a tidy profit while other investors lose money.
Many company executives hate this process – and the people who engage in it – possibly to the point of indulging in wayward (and expensive) tweets. Yet if a large, high-flying and well-known company falls 44 per cent from its peak, you might expect to see hedge funds and short sellers popping a lot of champagne.
Except if that company is Tencent.
Despite the fact that China’s predominant purveyor of social media lost more than $250 billion of market value in the past nine months, short sellers were few and far between.
It’s clear that short interest is waning. Sure, there’s been a small spike in the past couple of weeks, but the trend is clear.
Less than 0.3 per cent of all outstanding shares in Tencent are shorted, according to data compiled by Markit. The highest that level reached in the past year was a mere 0.48 per cent in November. (By comparison, short interest in Alibaba stands above 3 per cent.)
That’s a lot of money left on the table by short sellers who could have made a killing.
If we zoom out a little and take a look at the shorting action over a five-year horizon, something even more interesting is revealed: short interest peaked two years ago, after a roller-coaster period, and has been charting a straight line south since then.
_______________
Read more:
Chinese tech giant Tencent's $220bn share slide its worst ever
China's tech firms may be down but they are certainly not out
_______________
One possible reason is rebalancing coupled with fund outflows from Hong Kong exchange-traded funds. Investment advisers, who manage funds on behalf of others, account for 35 per cent of disclosed holdings in Tencent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Another set of data tracked by Bloomberg shows that Hong Kong ETFs experienced a 13.3 per cent outflow over the past year.
Tencent occupies a unique position on investors’ radars. It’s a rare Greater China technology stock that’s listed in a developed market but not the US. If your fund remit is to track tech, emerging markets, Greater China, big cap, or non-US-listed shares, then you probably need to put Tencent in your portfolio somewhere. Throw in the internet giant’s “star power” of a year ago, and it wouldn’t be surprising to find some fund managers were overweight.
ETFs account for 16.6 per cent of the Tencent stock held by funds, a proportion that’s risen by a third in the past three years. That’s second only to emerging-market funds, which are also often passively managed, with holdings tied to an underlying benchmark. Interestingly, hedge funds own just 0.07 per cent of the stock.
By comparison, hedge funds own 4.4 per cent of US-listed compatriot Alibaba. ETFs account for just 5.7 per cent of that e-commerce company’s reported holdings.
It’s important to remember that correlation doesn’t equal causality. All of this could be purely coincidental, and there are probably other reasons to explain the low shorting action for Hong Kong’s most valuable company.
However, the fact that Tencent has fallen so much this year while short sellers have been largely absent could indicate that the decline isn’t personal – active managers are reweighting their holdings while passive investors are forced to sell in line with fund flows. Short sellers can still profit from these trends by merely riding the escalator to the bottom.
Even if hedge funds didn’t have a particularly negative view of Tencent, they still missed one heck of a short-sell party.
Bloomberg
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FIXTURES
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Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
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What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
The biog
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Age: 50
Profession: Electronic engineer, worked with Etisalat for the past 20 years
Hobbies: 'Anything that involves exploration, hunting, fishing, mountaineering, the sea, hiking, scuba diving, and adventure sports'
Favourite quote: 'Life is so simple, enjoy it'
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MATCH INFO
Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)
TV: Abu Dhabi Sports
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Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
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Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
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Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
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Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
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Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
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Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Sunday's games
Liverpool v West Ham United, 4.30pm (UAE)
Southampton v Burnley, 4.30pm
Arsenal v Manchester City, 7pm
Juliet, Naked
Dir: Jesse Peretz
Starring: Chris O'Dowd, Rose Byrne, Ethan Hawke
Two stars
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
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