A monitor tracks high-energy collisions between two microscopic beams of particles in the Large Hadron Collider near Geneva. A team from the centre that houses the collider has detected particles travelling faster than the speed of light - a finding that appears certain to be proved wrong within a year. Fabrice Coffrini / AFP
A monitor tracks high-energy collisions between two microscopic beams of particles in the Large Hadron Collider near Geneva. A team from the centre that houses the collider has detected particles travShow more

Recent, newsmaking scientific research has been debunked



Two big science stories have broken in recent days. One has implications for the health of millions, while the other is most likely inconsequential and wrong. Guess which attracted the bigger headlines?

The news that scientists may have detected particles travelling faster than the speed of light swept round the world with barely less alacrity. It even became the lead item on the BBC World Service's news bulletins, usually dominated by war, pestilence and death.

Around the globe, professors found themselves being asked whether Einstein really had been proved wrong, and that a scientific revolution was about to break. And pretty much all of them gave the same answers: "No" and "No".

Their scepticism is based on the fact that not even the researchers making the claim have much confidence in it. The measurements needed to reveal the speed of the particles are tricky and could easily be wrong by an amount that would mean Einstein was right all along.

The team, based at Cern, home of the famous Large Hadron Collider project, went public to try to persuade other researchers to repeat the study and find out where they've gone wrong.

We should have confirmation that the finding really is codswallop within a year. But will the debunking also make headlines around the world? Unlikely: the media rarely show much interest in the fizzle of once-dazzling news stories.

Which brings us to the case of the second big science story - the one of direct interest to millions of people. In 2009, medical researchers in America published findings in the leading journal Science that pointed to a major breakthrough in understanding Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS), a mysterious debilitating disorder that affects millions of people worldwide.

The cause of CFS has been the source of long and often bitter debate. Some medics insist it is all in the mind, which infuriates many sufferers. The 2009 study made headlines because it claimed to have found a link between CFS and a virus. The researchers found that in tests on over a hundred patients with the disorder, 67 per cent carried a virus code-named XMRV, compared with just 4 per cent of healthy people.

As with the faster-than-light claim, these results were greeted with considerable scepticism. Experts asked to comment pointed to the relatively small numbers of patients tested and the risk that the results were due to contamination. Despite this, the research was hailed by the media as a breakthrough, with one science magazine declaring it one of the top discoveries of the year.

The publicity had the wholly beneficial effect of encouraging other researchers to attempt to replications of the original findings. More than a dozen tried - and failed. Now even the original team have found flaws with their work, and have partially retracted their original paper. Their lead researcher has also been fired, and allegations of mishandling of data are being investigated.

It thus now looks likely that the sceptics were right all along. The link between CFS and the XMRV virus was simply a mirage, and the real cause lies elsewhere. Not that this has attracted anything like the publicity of the original claim. Indeed, unless you have access to academic journals, you could be forgiven for believing the virus theory is still viable.

But then, you could also be forgiven for believing that people with aggressive "Type A" personalities are more prone to heart attacks, that aluminium saucepans are linked to Alzheimer's disease, or that silicone breast implants cause a host of disorders. These and a host of similar headline-grabbing claims have been debunked over the years, but with nothing like the fanfare that greeted the original claim.

Still, the media can hardly be expected to provide running commentaries on the great scientific and medical debates of the day. For that, we must turn to the academic journals.

But here's the scary thing: they too have a habit of failing to publish "boring" negative results. The result is that even the scientific community can be hopelessly misinformed about the true status of controversial claims.

The existence of this "publication bias" has been known about for years. It's been of particular concern in medical research, where claims for supposedly effective new therapies are known to have a higher chance of being published than reports of failures - despite the importance of knowing either way.

Now a new study suggests the problem is spreading. An analysis of journals by Dr Daniele Fanelli of the University of Edinburgh has found that research with positive findings is taking up ever more of the academic literature.

According to Dr Fanelli, in the early 1990s around 70 per cent of papers reported positive results. Since then, the proportion has steadily increased, and by 2007 it stood at 86 per cent.

The trend was particularly marked in the "softer" sciences like economics and social psychology. It was strongest, however, for disciplines like clinical medicine and pharmacology - precisely those already causing most concern because of the dangers of researchers being misled about the true value of therapies.

Much of the problem lies with academic journals. Many insist they simply don't have the space to publish negative findings - though in these days of online publication, that sounds increasingly feeble.

Some journals even have a policy of refusing to publish results that confirm or refute previous studies already published elsewhere.

There is also growing concern that, sensing the futility of submitting them, researchers themselves are not bothering to write up negative findings.

When - as seems very likely - the Cern team's faster-than-light claim is debunked, most newspaper editors will give the story short shrift. But if researchers increasingly follow suit with their own negative findings, it will not just leave us ill-informed. It will undermine the scientific process, the best means we have of distinguishing fact from fiction.

Robert Matthews is Visiting Reader in Science at Aston University, Birmingham, England

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Cinco in numbers

Dh3.7 million

The estimated cost of Victoria Swarovski’s gem-encrusted Michael Cinco wedding gown

46

The number, in kilograms, that Swarovski’s wedding gown weighed.

1,000

The hours it took to create Cinco’s vermillion petal gown, as seen in his atelier [note, is the one he’s playing with in the corner of a room]

50

How many looks Cinco has created in a new collection to celebrate Ballet Philippines’ 50th birthday

3,000

The hours needed to create the butterfly gown worn by Aishwarya Rai to the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.

1.1 million

The number of followers that Michael Cinco’s Instagram account has garnered.