The worldwide smartphone market shows initial indications of a marginal rebound in 2024 following two consecutive years of decline.
This upturn is fuelled by the growth of emerging market economies, a resurgence in consumer spending, an increase in average selling prices, and the swift integration of generative artificial intelligence devices, according to industry experts.
Global smartphone shipments, which declined 12 per cent yearly in 2022, are expected to have dropped 5 per cent in 2023 before returning to a 4 per cent year-on-year growth in 2024, according to new forecasts from researcher Canalys.
During 2023, multiple macroeconomic factors continued to negatively affect consumer discretionary spending, although the impact was less pronounced on business spending, Anshul Gupta, vice president analyst at Gartner, tells The National.
“Continuous high prices, especially for food and energy, raised the cost of living and had a direct impact on consumer spending, causing a decline in smartphone sales,” he says.
And while consumers extended their smartphone replacements by nearly a year between 2020 and 2024, “the lack of substantial technological innovations, coupled with a shift from fixed contracts to flexible arrangements, contributed to the deceleration of smartphone sales”, he adds.
Ramazan Yavuz, senior research manager for Middle East and Africa at International Data Corporation, argues that consumer demand is being affected by the increased lifespan of smartphones, “putting extra pressure on the market, which is already overwhelmed by low profitability, restrained budgets and negative economic outlook”.
Singapore-headquartered Canalys estimates that 1.13 billion smartphones were shipped in 2023, with that figure predicted to reach more than 1.17 billion units this year and 1.25 billion units in 2027, at a compound annual growth rate of 2.6 per cent from 2023 to 2027.
The softening decline points at overall industry stabilisation, as emerging regions like the Middle East, Africa and Latin America are expected to return to growth at 9 per cent, 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, in 2023.
Fellow researcher IDC expects worldwide smartphone shipments to have declined 3.5 per cent annually in 2023 to 1.16 billion units. This is revised from an earlier forecast of a 4.7 per cent decline.
However, it predicts market recovery to continue in 2024 with 3.8 per cent growth, followed by low single-digit growth in the next few years.
“In light of the ongoing economic uncertainty and financial limitations experienced in recent years, a rapid rebound in consumer demand, especially within the consumer electronics sector, appears improbable,” Manish Pravinkumar, a Dubai-based senior consultant at Canalys, tells The National.
“Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the indispensable role smartphones play in daily productivity tasks across various emerging regions. Consequently, the expected resurgence of demand in these markets, previously impeded by inflation and supply challenges, is poised to surpass that in developed markets.”
Industry experts say the recovery will be evident in two main ways. First, there is a chance for the markets that faced supply shortages due to Covid-induced import controls to bounce back.
Second, companies have overcome the difficulties of having too much inventory, which was a problem in the past one to two years. Now, they are back to their regular schedules for releasing products and shipping them.
Channel partners are eager to restock their inventory, and these efforts are vital for the market's significant recovery in late 2023 and are expected to keep driving growth in 2024, Mr Pravinkumar says.
“I would call it a macroeconomic shift, more so than a shift in consumer preferences,” Thomas Monteiro, senior analyst at Investing.com, tells The National.
“I think this distinction is key because, even though both present a similar challenge for the smartphone industry, the former is more long-term in nature, comprising not only a shift in consumer patterns but also in the industry's target audience.”
Striking the right balance
With inventories having normalised by the end of 2023, global smartphone shipments are projected to grow 3 per cent year on year in 2024, says Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint Research.
This will be driven by a “recovery in emerging markets, increasing consumer confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions”, he tells The National.
But with “many moving parts”, particularly across Google’s Android ecosystem, “in 2024, perhaps more than any other, OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] will need to strike the right balance across innovation, competitive positioning and market-specific challenges”, he cautions.
Samsung Electronics, the world’s biggest mobile phone manufacturer, continues to lead the global smartphone market, with a 20 per cent share as of the third quarter of 2023, Counterpoint data shows.
Its biggest rival, Apple, is second with 16 per cent, followed by China’s Oppo and Xiaomi, both with 14 per cent.
“There are significant opportunities for Android OEMs this year and we see a well-positioned Samsung aiming to boost profitability through its flagship foldables which will positively impact ASPs [average selling prices],” Mr Gupta says.
Samsung typically launches its foldables in July or August, a month before Apple’s traditional unveiling of its new iPhones. The South Korean tech giant is slated to introduce its next flagship, the Galaxy S24 series, on January 17.
“Oppo, Vivo and other key Android players will continue to grapple with nuanced market dynamics. As a result, we’re expecting to see more strategic regional focus and downsized investments,” Mr Gupta adds.
Why analysts are worried about sluggish China?
Global smartphone sales are poised to grow slower as economic challenges in China – the world’s second largest economy – have dampened consumer spending across the globe.
For many years, smartphone producers and chipmakers have been priced with a very fast growth rate due to the expected acceleration of the Chinese economy both on the consumer and the producing ends, says Mr Monteiro.
“However, that has changed, as we now see China's expected GDP [gross domestic product] deceleration and shift in the economic matrix, simultaneously increasing production costs and weakening expected sales.”
Sluggish economic growth in the world’s top manufacturing hub is affecting materials and equipment costs globally.
Despite a struggling Chinese economy, other powerful consumer markets, such as India, Mexico, and some parts of Africa, are rising fast, which should keep driving sales in the longer term, analysts say.
“In the shorter term, we are on the verge of avoiding one of the most expected US recessions in history, and the same outcome may just come to fruition in the eurozone,” says Mr Monteiro.
He expects the global smartphone industry to experience an upward sale trajectory – a 3 per cent surge this year, followed by 5.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent growth in coming years as technology and other developing markets grow faster.
Will generative AI units add fuel to fire?
Generative AI smartphones are expected to have taken a 4 per cent share of the total market in 2023 (47 million shipments) and this is likely to double this year, according to Hong Kong-based Counterpoint.
South Korean manufacturer Samsung will capture half of this market this year followed by Chinese manufacturers Xiaomi, Vivo, Honor and Oppo.
In light of the ongoing economic uncertainty, a rapid rebound in consumer demand appears improbable
Manish Pravinkumar,
senior consultant at Canalys
Even the introduction of AI or generative AI-enabled devices is expected to bring “only incremental benefits until 2025, resulting in minimal short-term impact on demand”, Mr Gupta says.
“AI has been a feature of smartphones for the last few years … we now expect to see the emergence of smartphones optimised to run generative AI models in addition to the normal use of AI in smartphones.”
This year is expected to be key for how generative AI will be integrated into smartphones and how pervasive that integration will be, Mr Yavuz says.
“Considering current devices already possess multiple AI features, 2024 will show the direction of how AI will shape the device space,” he adds.
“We are expecting an influx of AI-powered phones in 2024. However, these early products will be launched in high-end and premium devices first, addressing a narrower portion of the consumer base next year.”
By 2027, generative AI smartphones' share in the total industry is expected to reach 40 per cent and surpass 522 million units in shipments.
“[The] new generation of ‘smarter phones' … that have a greater integration with AI from both hardware and software levels … is brewing. And this is very likely to keep on driving interest even in more developed markets,” says Mr Monteiro.
Why consumers are switching to better, durable phones
Consumers are now prioritising their purchases, opting for higher-quality products that will last longer, and only switching when necessary, says Nicolet Pienaar, head of intelligence and retail for Middle East and North Africa at GfK.
“When you look at price segments you see that the decline is mainly coming from mid and low-end price units (less than $600) where demand fell over 4 per cent in Meta [Middle East, Turkey and Africa] region [in 2023] … [while] demand for premium (over $600) rose by almost 17 per cent.”
“Consumers are increasingly seeking devices that align with their fast-paced lifestyles and provide a simplified user experience. We can anticipate continued R&D investment, resulting in the introduction of even more advanced and innovative features fuelling the industry in the future,” Ms Pienaar says.
Declining sales are not an issue of a singular brand but an “overall market reality” and manufacturers have no choice other than to become more “innovative” to boost demand for their phones.
For example, Chinese brands are becoming more creative in acquiring new clients by catering to niche buyers in premium segments like foldable devices or gaming mobiles for young consumers, says Ms Pienaar.
Regional developments
Given all the factors and circumstances, not much growth is expected from the Middle East and Africa.
In the UAE, smartphone shipments are seen to inch up 9 per cent this year, Mr Yavuz says.
For Android devices, the outlook is “positive”, with more affordable brands – an advantage a sliver of the Android market has over Apple’s iOS – focused on market penetration.
Apple, meanwhile, is expected to drop slightly in 2024 compared to last year, which “stems from a base effect where it posted a quite healthy performance in 2023”, Mr Yavuz says.
The IDC’s price band forecast for the UAE indicates a drop in the low-end segments – those below $200 – while mid-tier segments, between $200 to $600, are expected to grow in share.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE WARRIORS RESULTS
Featherweight
Azouz Anwar (EGY) beat Marcelo Pontes (BRA)
TKO round 2
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) beat Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Split points decision
Welterweight
Gimbat Ismailov (RUS) beat Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR)
TKO round 1
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) beat Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Unanimous points decision
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) beat Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
TKO round 1
Catchweight 100kg
Marc Vleiger (NED) beat Mohamed Ali (EGY)
Rear neck choke round 1
Featherweight
James Bishop (NZ) beat Mark Valerio (PHI)
TKO round 2
Welterweight
Abdelghani Saber (EGY) beat Gerson Carvalho (BRA)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) beat Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Unanimous points decision
Bantamweight
Fabio Mello (BRA) beat Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Unanimous points decision
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magomedsultanov (RUS)
TKO round 1
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) beat Jayson Margallo (PHI)
TKO round 3
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) beat Roman Golovinov (UKR)
TKO round 1
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Submission round 2
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
TKO round 2
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
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John%20Wick%3A%20Chapter%204
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The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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UAE finals day
Friday, April 13
Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
RESULTS
Time; race; prize; distance
4pm: Maiden; (D) Dh150,000; 1,200m
Winner: General Line, Xavier Ziani (jockey), Omar Daraj (trainer)
4.35pm: Maiden (T); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Travis County, Adrie de Vries, Ismail Mohammed
5.10pm: Handicap (D); Dh175,000; 1,200m
Winner: Scrutineer, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
5.45pm: Maiden (D); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
6.20pm: Maiden (D); Dh150,000; 1,600m
Winner: Ejaaby, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
6.55pm: Handicap (D); Dh160,000; 1,600m
Winner: Storyboard, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap (D); Dh150,000; 2,200m
Winner: Grand Dauphin, Gerald Mosse, Ahmed Al Shemaili
8.05pm: Handicap (T); Dh190,000; 1,800m
Winner: Good Trip, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
The%20specs
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Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
if you go
The flights
Direct flights from the UAE to the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, are available with Air Arabia, (www.airarabia.com) Fly Dubai (www.flydubai.com) or Etihad (www.etihad.com) from Dh1,200 return including taxes. The trek described here started from Jomson, but there are many other start and end point variations depending on how you tailor your trek. To get to Jomson from Kathmandu you must first fly to the lake-side resort town of Pokhara with either Buddha Air (www.buddhaair.com) or Yeti Airlines (www.yetiairlines.com). Both charge around US$240 (Dh880) return. From Pokhara there are early morning flights to Jomson with Yeti Airlines or Simrik Airlines (www.simrikairlines.com) for around US$220 (Dh800) return.
The trek
Restricted area permits (US$500 per person) are required for trekking in the Upper Mustang area. The challenging Meso Kanto pass between Tilcho Lake and Jomson should not be attempted by those without a lot of mountain experience and a good support team. An excellent trekking company with good knowledge of Upper Mustang, the Annaurpuna Circuit and Tilcho Lake area and who can help organise a version of the trek described here is the Nepal-UK run Snow Cat Travel (www.snowcattravel.com). Prices vary widely depending on accommodation types and the level of assistance required.
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
RESULT
Bayern Munich 5 Eintrracht Frankfurt 2
Bayern: Goretzka (17'), Müller (41'), Lewandowski (46'), Davies (61'), Hinteregger (74' og)
Frankfurt: Hinteregger (52', 55')