The contribution of generative artificial intelligence to global gross domestic product is now expected to be higher within the next 10 years as adoption of the emerging technology is expected to grow, Goldman Sachs has said.
Baseline estimates now imply a long-run boost of between 10 and 15 per cent, on the premise that workers are not permanently displaced by AI and "the capital stock rises to match productivity improvements", the investment bank said.
That compares with Goldman Sachs' earlier estimate that the successful adoption of AI in labour productivity would boost the level of global GDP by between 7 and 13 per cent.
However, the new estimates will still depend on the timing and magnitude of AI's effects globally, which is still surrounded by "considerable uncertainty", Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani wrote in the report.
"In addition, barriers to adoption may delay productivity growth even if the full efficiency gains we see as possible are ultimately realised," they said.
In practice, generative AI's net effect on GDP is likely to be smaller for two reasons.
If viewed as the “next wave” of innovation, the growth impact of generative AI may not be fully additive to the current GDP trend, they said.
"Information and communication technology has recently driven almost half of labour productivity growth in developing market economies, reflecting both increased ICT investment and complementarities with existing inputs.
"So, some AI-related gains may substitute for growth that would otherwise occur in a non-AI baseline."
The second is the potential for underlying productivity growth to slow down.
Goldman Sachs highlighted recent research that suggested near-term total factor productivity grows linearly, "with an occasional step-up following technological regime shifts, rather than exponentially".
"Unless AI ushers in a new productivity growth regime – an outcome that is possible but premature to forecast – the boost we anticipate from generative AI may be partially offset by an underlying growth slowdown," they said.
The AI industry received a boost with the emergence of ChatGPT, created by Microsoft-backed OpenAI, which became a sensation because of its advanced conversational skills.
That sparked a race between the biggest technology companies and personalities, including Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle and Elon Musk.
Investors ploughed billions into generative AI start-ups in 2021 and 2022, prompting countries to tap into the technology's potential.
Globally, AI investments are projected to hit $200 billion by 2025 and could possibly have a bigger impact on GDP, Goldman Sachs has previously said.
Generative AI is also expected to hold immense economic potential: GCC countries, for instance, are expected to reap about $23.5 billion in economic benefits by 2030 as investments in generative AI continue to grow, PwC unit Strategy& Middle East said in a September report.
For businesses, generative AI could generate value equivalent to anywhere between $2.6 trillion and $4.4 trillion in global corporate profits annually, based on 63 use cases where the technology could raise productivity, a recent study from the McKinsey Global Institute said.
However, the technology has also been considered overhyped and ranks top for “inflated expectations” for emerging technology in 2023, an August study from Gartner showed.
Goldman Sachs predicts GDP growth boost will not exceed 0.1 percentage point until 2027 in the US, 2028 to 2032 in other developed markets and advanced emerging economies, and 2034 or later in emerging markets.
The projections are based on "historical productivity gains following technological breakthroughs, commentary from business leaders and cross-country technology adoption patterns", the economists said.
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Company profile
Name: Fruitful Day
Founders: Marie-Christine Luijckx, Lyla Dalal AlRawi, Lindsey Fournie
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2015
Number of employees: 30
Sector: F&B
Funding so far: Dh3 million
Future funding plans: None at present
Future markets: Saudi Arabia, potentially Kuwait and other GCC countries
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
More coverage from the Future Forum
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
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Sanchez's club career
2005-2006: Cobreloa
2006-2011 Udinese
2006-2007 Colo-Colo (on loan)
2007-2008 River Plate (on loan)
2011-2014 Barcelona
2014–Present Arsenal
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
PROFILE BOX
Company name: Overwrite.ai
Founder: Ayman Alashkar
Started: Established in 2020
Based: Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai
Sector: PropTech
Initial investment: Self-funded by founder
Funding stage: Seed funding, in talks with angel investors
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Levante v Real Mallorca (12am)
Leganes v Barcelona (4pm)
Real Betis v Valencia (7pm)
Granada v Atletico Madrid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad (12am)
Espanyol v Getafe (3pm)
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao (5pm)
Eibar v Alaves (7pm)
Villarreal v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Real Valladolid v Sevilla (12am)
