Electric vehicles and batteries are becoming central to many countries’ industrial policies, and competition to attract investment is bound to increase in the years to come, according to BloombergNEF's annual Electric Vehicle Outlook.
There are many attention-grabbing numbers in the analysis, ranging from how road transport emissions peak in 2029, to how EVs of all types are already displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil a day.
“The substantial shifts outlined in the report will upset many industry incumbents, while also create a host of new opportunities,” Colin McKerracher, lead author of Electric Vehicle Outlook, said.
In BNEF's economics-based modelling – which it called Economic Transition Scenario – the cumulative value of EV sales across all segments hits $8.8 trillion dollars by 2030 and $57 trillion by 2050.
In a scenario in which all vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions by 2050 – its Net-Zero Scenario – the midcentury figure jumps to more than $88 trillion.
The gap between BNEF's Economic Transition Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario is smaller than in any of its previous reports.
This is due to new stronger policy support in the US, early EV progress in a few emerging economies, growing global investment in charging infrastructure and the battery supply chain, and technology innovations like sodium-ion batteries. However, there are still areas where more work is required.
How vehicles are used can significantly affect how many are required on the roads. In this respect, autonomous vehicles, or AVs, are still a wild card for the global vehicle market.
AVs drove over 80 million kilometres on public roads in 2022 in testing and operations. Fleet operators such as Cruise, Waymo and Baidu are expanding services to new cities.
While the current footprint of these services is still relatively tiny, the roll-out of robotaxis could have huge implications for the size and distribution of the passenger vehicle fleet.
Due to the uncertainty around the speed of AV deployment, BNEF modelled out two scenarios in which the timeline of AV adoption varies significantly from its Economic Transition Scenario.
Depending on the region in which they operate, robotaxis can cover three to five times the annual distance of a private passenger vehicle, meaning that in a high-AV adoption scenario, far fewer vehicles are required to offer the same level of mobility to consumers.
In its high-AV scenario, the 2050 fleet of passenger vehicles on the road would be 29 per cent smaller than in its Economic Transition Scenario, which assumes that robotaxis will offer short- to mid-distance mobility mainly in urban areas, where population density bolsters the viability of these services.
In its low-AV scenario, on the other hand, the passenger vehicle fleet will continue to grow out to 2050, ending up at about 1.8 billion vehicles, more than 29 per cent greater than in its Economic Transition Scenario.
There is no doubt electrification will play a defining role in the next few decades of road transport. However, there are still many unanswered questions on the details, such as where and in what segments EVs take hold.
How quickly robotaxis materialise is one of the more uncertain factors that will loom large over investment decisions at all levels of the transport value chain.
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
Notable groups (UAE time)
Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson (12.47pm)
Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Louis Oosthuizen (12.58pm)
Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood (1.09pm)
Sergio Garcia, Jason Day, Zach Johnson (4.04pm)
Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, Adam Scott (4.26pm)
Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Rory McIlroy (5.48pm)
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
'Spies in Disguise'
Director: Nick Bruno and Troy Quane
Stars: Will Smith, Tom Holland, Karen Gillan and Roshida Jones
Rating: 4 out of 5 stars
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score):
Manchester City (0) v Tottenham Hotspur (1), Wednesday, 11pm UAE
Match is on BeIN Sports
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm kick-off UAE)
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Cologne (5.30pm)
Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld (5.30pm)
Augsburg v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich (8.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Freiburg (10.30pm)
Sunday
VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin (8pm)
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
