Microsoft's LinkedIn boosted subscription revenue by 8 per cent after arming its sales team with artificial intelligence software that not only predicts clients at risk of cancelling, but also explains how it arrived at its conclusion.
The system, introduced last July and described in a LinkedIn blog post, marks a breakthrough in getting AI to “show its work” in a helpful way.
While AI scientists have no problem designing systems that make accurate predictions on all sorts of business outcomes, they are discovering that to make those tools more effective for human operators, the AI may need to explain itself through another algorithm.
The emerging field of “Explainable AI”, or XAI, has spurred big investment in Silicon Valley as start-ups and cloud companies compete to make opaque software more understandable. It has also stoked discussion in Washington and Brussels where regulators want to ensure automated decision-making is done fairly and transparently.
AI technology can perpetuate societal biases like those around race, gender and culture. Some AI scientists view explanations as a crucial part of mitigating those problematic outcomes.
US consumer protection regulators including the Federal Trade Commission have warned over the past two years that AI that is not explainable could be investigated. The EU next year could pass the Artificial Intelligence Act, a set of comprehensive requirements including that users be able to interpret automated predictions.
Proponents of explainable AI say it has helped increase the effectiveness of its application in fields such as health care and sales. Google Cloud sells explainable AI services that, for instance, tell clients trying to sharpen their systems which pixels, and soon, which training examples mattered most in predicting the subject of a photo.
But critics say the explanations of why AI predicted what it did are too unreliable because the technology to interpret the machines is not good enough.
LinkedIn and others developing explainable AI acknowledge that each step in the process — analysing predictions, generating explanations, confirming their accuracy and making them actionable for users — still has room for improvement.
But after two years of trial and error in a relatively low-stakes application, LinkedIn says its technology has yielded practical value. Its proof is the 8 per cent increase in renewal bookings during the current fiscal year above normally expected growth. LinkedIn declined to specify the benefit in dollars, but described it as sizeable.
Before, LinkedIn salespeople relied on their own intuition and some spotty automated alerts about clients' adoption of services. Now, the AI quickly handles research and analysis. Called CrystalCandle by LinkedIn, it calls out unnoticed trends and its reasoning helps salespeople hone their tactics to keep at-risk customers on board and pitch others on upgrades.
LinkedIn says explanation-based recommendations have expanded to more than 5,000 of its sales employees spanning recruiting, advertising, marketing and education offerings.
“It has helped experienced salespeople by arming them with specific insights to navigate conversations with prospects. It’s also helped new salespeople dive in right away,” said Parvez Ahammad, LinkedIn's director of machine learning and head of data science applied research.
In 2020, LinkedIn had first provided predictions without explanations. A score with about 80 per cent accuracy indicates the likelihood a client soon due for renewal will upgrade, hold steady or cancel.
Salespeople were not fully won over. The team selling LinkedIn's Talent Solutions recruiting and hiring software were unclear on how to adapt their strategy, especially when the odds of a client not renewing were no better than a coin toss.
Last July, they started seeing a short, auto-generated paragraph that highlights the factors influencing the score.
For instance, the AI decided a customer was likely to upgrade because the company grew by 240 workers over the past year and candidates had become 146 per cent more responsive in the past month.
In addition, an index that measures a client's overall success with LinkedIn recruiting tools surged 25 per cent in the last three months.
I view interpretability as ultimately enabling a conversation between machines and humans
Been Kim,
AI researcher at Google
Based on the explanations, sales representatives now direct clients to training, support and services that improve their experience and keep them spending, said Lekha Doshi, LinkedIn's vice president of global operations.
But some AI experts question whether explanations are necessary. They could even do harm, engendering a false sense of security in AI or prompting design sacrifices that make predictions less accurate, researchers say.
Fei-Fei Li, co-director of Stanford University's Institute for Human-Centred Artificial Intelligence, said people use products such as Tylenol and Google Maps whose inner workings are not neatly understood. In such cases, rigorous testing and monitoring have dispelled most doubts about their efficacy.
Similarly, AI systems overall could be deemed fair even if individual decisions are inscrutable, said Daniel Roy, an associate professor of statistics at the University of Toronto.
LinkedIn says an algorithm's integrity cannot be evaluated without understanding its thinking.
It also maintains that tools like its CrystalCandle could help AI users in other fields. Doctors could learn why AI predicts someone is more at risk of a disease or people could be told why AI recommended they be denied a credit card.
The hope is that explanations reveal whether a system aligns with concepts and values one wants to promote, said Been Kim, an AI researcher at Google.
“I view interpretability as ultimately enabling a conversation between machines and humans,” she said.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Uefa Nations League
League A:
Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, France, England, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Iceland, Croatia, Netherlands
League B:
Austria, Wales, Russia, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, Republic of Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Turkey
League C:
Hungary, Romania, Scotland, Slovenia, Greece, Serbia, Albania, Norway, Montenegro, Israel, Bulgaria, Finland, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania
League D:
Azerbaijan, Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Andorra, Kosovo, San Marino, Gibraltar
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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FULL%20RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEslam%20Syaha%20(EGY)%20bt%20Robin%20Roos%20(SWE)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EWelterweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlex%20da%20Silva%20(BRA)%20bt%20Bagyash%20Zharmamatov%20(KGZ)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EMurodov%20Samandar%20(TJK)%20bt%20Lucas%20Sampaio%20(BRA)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EShakhban%20Alkhasov%20(RUS)%20bt%20Salamat%20Orozakunov%20(KGZ)%0D%3Cbr%3EKhotamjon%20Boynazarov%20(UZB)%20bt%20Mikail%20Bayram%20(FRA)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EJieleyisi%20Baergeng%20(CHN)%20bt%20Xavier%20Alaoui%20(CAN)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERashid%20Vagabov%20(RUS)%20bt%20Lun%20Qui%20(CHN)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EYamato%20Fujita%20(JPN)%20bt%20Furkatbek%20Yokubov%20(UZB)%20%0D%3Cbr%3EAaron%20Aby%20(WLS)%20bt%20Joevincent%20So%20(PHI)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMark%20Hulm%20(RSA)%20bt%20Erkin%20Darmenov%20(KAZ)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20160lb%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERustam%20Serbiev%20(BEL)%20bt%20Anar%20Huseyinov%20(AZE)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20150lb%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIslam%20Reda%20(EGY)%20bt%20Ernie%20Braca%20(PHI)%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%20(women)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3EBaktygul%20Kurmanbekova%20(KGZ)%20bt%20Maria%20Eugenia%20Zbrun%20(ARG)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Porsche Taycan Turbo specs
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
On sale: now
More coverage from the Future Forum
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
SCORES
Multiply Titans 81-2 in 12.1 overs
(Tony de Zorzi, 34)
bt Auckland Aces 80 all out in 16 overs
(Shawn von Borg 4-15, Alfred Mothoa 2-11, Tshepo Moreki 2-16).
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Born: near Sialkot, Pakistan, 1981
Profession: Driver
Family: wife, son (11), daughter (8)
Favourite drink: chai karak
Favourite place in Dubai: The neighbourhood of Khawaneej. “When I see the old houses over there, near the date palms, I can be reminded of my old times. If I don’t go down I cannot recall my old times.”
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MEDIEVIL%20(1998)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SCE%20Studio%20Cambridge%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%2C%20PlayStation%204%20and%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
TOURNAMENT INFO
Women’s World Twenty20 Qualifier
Jul 3- 14, in the Netherlands
The top two teams will qualify to play at the World T20 in the West Indies in November
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (captain), Chamani Seneviratne, Subha Srinivasan, Neha Sharma, Kavisha Kumari, Judit Cleetus, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Heena Hotchandani, Namita D’Souza, Ishani Senevirathne, Esha Oza, Nisha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi
Fringe@Four Line-up
October 1 - Phil Nichol (stand-up comedy)
October 29 - Mandy Knight (stand-up comedy)
November 5 - Sinatra Raw (Fringe theatre)
November 8 - Imah Dumagay & Sundeep Fernandes (stand-up comedy)
November 13 - Gordon Southern (stand-up comedy)
November 22 - In Loyal Company (Fringe theatre)
November 29 - Peter Searles (comedy / theatre)
December 5 - Sinatra’s Christmas Under The Stars (music / dinner show)
