Steps Saudi Arabia must take to stretch its resources further



"If something cannot go on forever, it will stop," as the noted economist Herbert Stein said. This epigram applies very well to Saudi Arabia's perilous long-term fiscal situation, analysed in a recent report from the investment bank Jadwa.

Jadwa identifies three converging, unsustainable trends. Government spending, essentially flat from the late 1970s to the early 2000s, is now soaring at 10 per cent or more a year, and was further boosted by King Abdullah's recent US$130 billion (Dh477.45bn) package. The large part of the budget devoted to government salaries is hard to cut without triggering discontent.

As well as domestic spending, Saudi Arabia is also absorbing the lion's share of GCC aid to various neighbours following the Arab Spring: 3 million barrels of oil to Yemen (worth some $300 million); $10bn promised to each of Bahrain and Oman; $4bn to Egypt; and $400m to Jordan.

Second, Saudi oil production capacity, about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) for the past 30 years, is unlikely to rise significantly. This may be pessimistic, given the giant reserves base, but Saudi Aramco has few near-term projects once the giant Manifa heavy oilfield is developed.

Opec faces growing competition from Brazilian deepwater fields, unconventional sources such as Canadian oil sands and US shales, and cheap, abundant natural gas. Demand in developed countries is shrinking; vehicles becoming more efficient. The producers' organisation will probably maintain its share of the global market but not increase it much.

Growing expenditures have led Saudi Arabia to favour a higher price than the $70 to $80 per barrel its oil minister described as "fair" as recently as June last year.

Yet the Saudis will have to balance their Opec quota against a resurgent Iraq, and perhaps a returning Libya and post-Chavez Venezuela. They could burn off some competition only by stepping up their own production substantially and lowering prices.

Third, domestic oil consumption is soaring because of low, government-fixed prices: less than $3 per barrel for power generation, and $0.16 per litre of petrol, compared with the UAE's (also subsidised) $0.47. Up to 1 million bpd is burnt for electricity and water desalination during the summer because of gas shortages.

With dramatically improved energy efficiency elsewhere, it takes Saudi Arabia 10 times more oil than the rest of the world to generate $1 of output. The result is that oil export revenues, some 90 per cent of the budget, will increase only modestly.

There is no immediate danger. Oil prices remain high, and the kingdom has virtually no debt and $562bn of foreign assets. But Jadwa forecasts the budget will be in deficit by 2014; by 2024, foreign assets would be essentially depleted and government spending would need to be financed with debt.

The obvious conclusion is that an oil-dependent economy is not sustainable: not because reserves run out, but because relying on petroleum alone raises a population's aspirations while generating only anaemic long-term growth.

What can the Saudi government do?

Costs for new gasfields are above current US prices. This implies that Saudi petrochemical plants, a key pillar of the government's economic diversification strategy, would not be competitive without subsidised inputs.

The same is true of electricity. Despite negligible progress to date, the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy plans ambitiously for solar and nuclear power to be the vast majority of the kingdom's energy supply by 2050.

But even if it delivers, Saudi Arabia has no competitive advantage over other countries in alternative energy. Solar, in particular, is much more expensive than gas-fired generation. And replacing most oil for transport implies that most vehicles would be electric - so who will be buying Saudi oil exports?

The missing piece of the puzzle is energy efficiency. Raising prices gradually to world levels would tame the explosive growth in consumption, reduce the strain on the budget, and lead Saudi industries to rely on technology and capabilities rather than government largesse.

Money saved in subsidies can be redistributed in targeted payments to low-income groups, or to all Saudi citizens; Brazil and Alaska have examples of such schemes.

Or rather than making government more bloated and expensive, private-sector employment of Saudis can receive incentives. Combined with a far-reaching reform of the education system, the country might start the slow march to an economy not dependent on petroleum, or its close relatives such as chemicals.

Yet the prospects for such visionary moves seem dim. The crisis is still too far off; the lure of easy oil spending too strong; the required changes too radical, demanding deft execution untypical of the Saudi state.

Although the current system cannot last forever, Machiavelli cautioned that: "There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things."

Robin Mills is an energy economist based in Dubai, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon

What is the FNC?

The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning. 
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval. 
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
 

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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

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“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
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ETFs explained

Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.

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