Some commodities look better this year

A gloomy economic outlook is leading analysts to favour defensive commodities over cyclicals this year. Hussein Allidina, the head of commodities at Morgan Stanley in New York, said gold, agriculture and livestock were his top picks, and here he explains why.

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What do investors need to keep in mind when building portfolios this year?

Given a slower GDP outlook this year, investors need to be more selective about exposure. We believe commodities with constrained supply will outperform.

Gold has slumped more than 10 per cent this month, trading at around US$1,600 an ounce. Do you still see upside in the precious metal?

Many in the market questioned whether the movement signalled the end of the 10-year bull market for gold - we believe it does not. The defensive nature of gold should continue to support investment demand as investors look for safe havens. [Mr Allidina forecasts gold to touch $2,200 this year.]

Corn had a strong run last year. Do you expect the trend to replicate this year?

Tight US and global fundamentals leave us constructive on corn at least through the first quarter as larger livestock herds suggest higher feed demand. The development of dry weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil also bodes poorly for yields.

What is your view on soybeans? Prices rose 5.9 per cent last month.

Soybean has been supported by concerns over dry and warm weather in South America and competition from corn. Dry weather in Argentina is expected to delay double-crop soybean planting, while a lack of soil moisture could also reduce final bean yields. Similarly in Brazil, December rainfall [declined] 36 per cent and 74 per cent year-on year in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná. The two states together produce about one fourth of Brazil's soybean crop.

Energy was the second-best performer after gold last year, with Brent up 17.5 per cent and currently trading just above $102 a barrel. Where do you see the oil price going this year?

Tight fundamentals are likely to erode this year, given recovering supply and slowing demand. We expect oil to fall in the first half to as low as $85 to $90 a barrel.

halsayegh@thenational.ae

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Kumulus Water

Started: 2021

Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid

Based: Tunisia

Sector: Water technology

Number of staff: 22

Investment raised: $4 million

How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?

The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

Available: Now

Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

Neighbourhood Watch

A Silicon Oasis of calm in bustling Dubai

How a road to nowhere became a top Ajman destination

The village community hidden among the skyscrapers of new Dubai

Key facilities

Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

SPECS

Nissan 370z Nismo

Engine: 3.7-litre V6

Transmission: seven-speed automatic

Power: 363hp

Torque: 560Nm

Price: Dh184,500

BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

Friday (All UAE kick-off times)

Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (11.30pm)

Saturday

Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)

FA Augsburg v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)

RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen (6.30pm)

SC Paderborn v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)

Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Monchengladbach (9.30pm)

Sunday

Cologne v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)

Mainz v FC Schalke (9pm)

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Results

4pm: Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Panadol, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)

4.35pm: Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m; Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

5.10pm: Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Canvassed, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

5.45pm: Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

6.20pm: Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O’Meara

6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass

7.30pm: Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Final Song, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young