In an era of relentlessly gloomy economic analysis, it is understandable that the British prime minister, David Cameron, should have been in a hurry to announce a rare morsel of good news.
Breaking the customary embargo on commenting on official statistics before their publication, he rose in parliament to welcome a 1 per cent rise in GDP for the three months to the end of September.
Friendly politicians were ready to acclaim the morale-boosting statistic. And the loyally conservative Daily Express trumpeted: "Double dip recession is over as British recovery gets on track".
Other voices were more restrained. "Don't talk about green shoots", was the stern advice from The Economist, the august British news magazine that has been preaching the virtues of sound capitalism since it was founded by a thrifty Scottish businessman 170 years ago.
So is Britain entering recovery, and a sustainable if modest one, or not?
First it is necessary to look at the background against which Mr Cameron, jumping the gun by a day before the GDP increase was formally confirmed last week, welcomed Britain's unsteady step out of its second recession in two years.
Among less encouraging recent news reports from or about Britain: London braced itself for the worst as the UBS banking group planned to cut 10,000 jobs and others in the financial sector prepared for an autumn of sackings; another set of official statistics showed a decline of 13 per cent net income per head of the population; and doubts were cast by analysts on London's ability to protect its status as the world's leading financial centre while Britain keeps its distance from Europe's moves towards banking union
The stubborn flow of negative dispatches was enough to ensure a cautious response from more neutral observers.
There may have been no event called the "bounce event" at the London Olympics this summer, but even officials from Britain's treasury were careful to point out that the Olympic Bounce - its direct and indirect benefits - was among the one-off factors that helped produce the modest rise after three quarters of slipping growth.
This raised the question of whether it was necessarily a good time for the prime minister and his supporters to gloat about the state of the economy after two-and-a-half troubled years since he took power as the head of a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.
Labour went into the 2010 election demoralised and discredited but now leads the polls as the coalition struggles with the effects of high employment, dwindling spending power and rock-bottom confidence.
But Mr Cameron turned on the opposition Labour leader Ed Miliband during sharp exchanges in parliament to declare: "The good news will keep coming. It is the Conservatives getting behind growth and jobs".
An economics columnist at The Observer newspaper noted that the prime minister's triumphalism sounded like "the clapped-out old politics of riding recovery to seal an election victory".
The Observer is no friend of the Conservatives, but in the same analysis, Mr Cameron's chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne, the man holding the national purse strings, was credited with a more measured response praising the "hard of work of millions of people and businesses".
The Economist found it unsurprising that any piece of good news would be snatched at, but added that "the latest figures exaggerate the economy's strength just as earlier figures had made it look unduly weak".
In the previous quarter, a fall in output was attributed principally to the loss of a working day when an extra bank holiday was added to mark the queen's 60 years of rule.
If the resumption of the normal calendar added as much as half a percentage point to GDP growth from July to September, the Olympics also made their contribution with ticket sales and hotel stays.
"Strip out these temporary influences and the economy's growth rate looks rather modest," said The Economist, which nevertheless identified signs of a "stirring economy" in a 1 per cent growth in retail sales, an 8 per cent year-on-year jump in September car sales and a fall in unemployment to below 8 per cent.
But it is a glaring feature of the post-2008 crisis that each item of good news is quickly overtaken by new setbacks. Last week, the electrical goods retailer Comet confirmed it was to go into administration, leaving up to 6,500 jobs and 240 stores at risk.
This, after a first half of the year in which almost 1,000 high street chain stores closed, was a severe blow for the retail sector. It was, however, offset by buck-the-trend news from Debenhams promising to open 17 new department stores and hire 1,700 staff.
Amid these contradictory signals, one man paid to be prudent about the way out of crisis is Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England.
He also alluded to the Olympics factor. In a speech delivered to the South Wales chamber of commerce in Cardiff, he first recalled the beautiful singing of Welsh children broadcast during the opening ceremony of the Games.
"If the Olympics aimed to inspire a generation, the challenge for economic policymakers is to give that same generation the opportunities to make the best possible use of their talents in a vibrant economy," he said.
But he warned solemnly of the "huge adjustment" faced by major economies after a period of "lopsided expansion with growing trade deficits and debt levels and a collapse of their banking systems".
He described the "big picture" as being that GDP was still barely higher than two years ago and lagged 15 per cent below where steady growth since 2007 would have led. He talked of a "downward correction of expectations about future incomes and wealth".
Those children filmed singing the Welsh hymn Cym Rhondda would not have thanked him for adding that the scale of the necessary "adjustment" was such that "the generation we hope to inspire may live under its shadow for a long time to come".
business@thenational.ae
Book%20Details
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All%20The%20Light%20We%20Cannot%20See%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
MATCH DETAILS
Manchester United 3
Greenwood (21), Martial (33), Rashford (49)
Partizan Belgrade 0
Klopp at the Kop
Matches 68; Wins 35; Draws 19; Losses 14; Goals For 133; Goals Against 82
- Eighth place in Premier League in 2015/16
- Runners-up in Europa League in 2016
- Runners-up in League Cup in 2016
- Fourth place in Premier League in 2016/17
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.5-litre%20V12%20and%20three%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C015hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C500Nm%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Early%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh2%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
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PREMIER LEAGUE STATS
Romelu Lukaku's goalscoring statistics in the Premier League
Season/club/appearances (substitute)/goals
2011/12 Chelsea: 8(7) - 0
2012/13 West Brom (loan): 35(15) - 17
2013/14 Chelsea: 2(2) - 0
2013/14 Everton (loan): 31(2) - 15
2014/15 Everton: 36(4) - 10
2015/16 Everton: 37(1) - 18
2016/17 Everton: 37(1) - 25
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
