The launch of a third round of stimulus in the United States has resurrected a great debate about whether the world may be teetering on the brink of an inflationary abyss.
The rising food prices that contributed to the Arab Spring represent one reason regional governments take inflation seriously.
They have been reluctant to roll back subsidies and price controls even at a time of easing inflationary pressure.
The question is whether record levels of economic stimulus coming at a time of consolidation in commodity markets could stoke price rises even as global growth slows.
"The Keynesian approach to stimulus is brilliant if it in fact unleashes the economic growth and it is a disaster if it doesn't. We can't reality test it yet," says Paul Laudicina, the managing partner and chairman of AT Kearney.
"In the US this is part of what the political debate has been all about. Has the stimulus of the Obama administration helped us to escape what could have been economic Armageddon or has it only really put a band aid on a very fundamental problem?"
The latest round of quantitative easing, dubbed QE3, which will involve the US Treasury buying more than US$40 billion (Dh146.92bn) in mortgage-backed securities every month, could heap further price pressure on emerging economies in the Middle East, economists have warned.
But others question whether quantitative easing is really inflationary at all. To the late American economist Milton Friedman, a Nobel Prize winner, printing money was like alcoholism, producing short-term elation at the cost of long-term pain.
Eventually, he believed, stimulus works its way through the system and drives prices higher in a process that can take years to manifest itself.
By Friedman's reckoning, the inflationary legacy of QE2 may not yet be apparent - even as QE3 gets under way.
But other contemporary economists such as another Nobel-prize winner, Paul Krugman, do not necessarily agree with the Friedman analysis and do not see the US Federal Reserve bond-buying programme as simple as printing money.
They say stimulus does not have to be inflationary as long as the Pandora's box of freshly created capital is kept largely unopened and contained within the banking system as opposed to being released into the wider economy in the form of lending that could inflate prices.
Although QE3 is notdirectly connected to commodities, its effect on the US dollar will influence the direction of commodity prices, which are often quoted in the currency.
Indeed, commodity prices already have risen in the run-up to QE3, and the stimulus could eventually hit emerging economies in the Middle East harder than more developed nations. Commodities have a bigger share in the consumption basket of their economies where food and basic supplies can account for half of household income. It means they are hit first by rising commodity prices.
It in this manner that quantitative easing in the US could have a greater inflationary impact overseas than at home. This may be one reason the Fed does not appear too concerned about the impact its bond-buying programme could have on consumer prices.
As its economy shifts towards gas, helped by the shale gas boom, it becomes less vulnerable to oil price swings. Similarly, because it is a net exporter of agricultural products it can also benefit from food inflation.
The global economy is expected to expand by 3.3 per cent this year, according to the IMF.
That would be the slowest since the 2009 recession and a principal reason many economists dismiss the threat of inflation.
"It is interesting how financial markets struggle with the concept of inflation," says Pippa Malmgren, a senior adviser with Principalis Asset Management. "There are those who say it is impossible in a deflationary world and others who say it is a time bomb."
She leans towards the second scenario even in the absence of official data to support claims of accelerating prices.
World Bank data shows that during last year, the year of the Arab Spring, food prices jumped by 13.6 per cent in the Middle East and North Africa, which was more than any other region in the world.
Overall consumer prices also increased faster than anywhere else during that year, jumping about 14.6 per cent.
Today China is also struggling to control rising consumer prices. While food costs have eased this year, they are still rising at a rate of almost 6 per cent annually, above the government's official overall inflation target of 4 per cent.
Ms Malmgren says that both business leaders and government officials agree the true figure is considerably higher.
"They will tell you they know inflation is in the low double digits because of the social unrest and in their history social unrest is always associated with higher inflation, she adds.
"Every CEO you talk to in China will tell you wages are running at 70 per cent gains per annum now for skilled workers and 30 per cent annualised for unskilled workers. The cost base is exploding. People forget that Tiananmen Square happened against a backdrop of 14 per cent inflation. The Chinese are very nervous about inflation and they are very aware of what it did to the Middle East."
Arabian Gulf economies are similarly keeping a careful eye on the souq even as price pressure appears to be easing.
It means that it is unlikely that the subsidies and price controls that protect the consumer from the harshest swings in commodity prices will be unwound any time soon, says Said Hirsh, an economist with Capital Economics in London.
"It would be very difficult for Gulf countries to reduce subsidy payments at this stage. Oil revenues are higher than ever and the population knows that," he says.
scronin@thenational.ae
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
Wednesday's results
Finland 3-0 Armenia
Faroes Islands 1-0 Malta
Sweden 1-1 Spain
Gibraltar 2-3 Georgia
Romania 1-1 Norway
Greece 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Liechtenstein 0-5 Italy
Switzerland 2-0 Rep of Ireland
Israel 3-1 Latvia
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
How to improve Arabic reading in early years
One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient
The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers
Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades
Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic
First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations
Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades
Improve the appearance of textbooks
Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings
Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught
Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar
Company%20Profile
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
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Uefa Nations League: How it works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
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%3Cp%3EMain%20Event%0D%3A%20Catchweight%20165lb%0D%3Cbr%3EMartun%20Mezhulmyan%20(ARM)%20v%20Acoidan%20Duque%20(ESP)%0D%3Cbr%3ECo-Main%20Event%0D%3A%20Bantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EFelipe%20Pereira%20(BRA)%20v%20Azamat%20Kerefov%20(RUS)%0D%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamad%20Osseili%20(LEB)%20v%20Amir%20Fazli%20(IRN)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20161%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EZhu%20Rong%20(CHI)%20vs.%20Felipe%20Maia%20(BRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20176%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHandesson%20Ferreira%20(BRA)%20vs.%20Ion%20Surdu%20(MDA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20168%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EArtur%20Zaynukov%20(RUS)%20v%20Sargis%20Vardanyan%20(ARM)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EIlkhom%20Nazimov%20(UZB)%20v%20Khazar%20Rustamov%20(AZE)%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJalal%20Al%20Daaja%20(JOR)%20v%20Mark%20Alcoba%20(PHI)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJakhongir%20Jumaev%20(UZB)%20v%20Dylan%20Salvador%20(FRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20143%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHikaru%20Yoshino%20(JPN)%20v%20Djamal%20Rustem%20(TUR)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJavohir%20Imamov%20(UZB)%20v%20Ulan%20Tamgabaev%20(KAZ)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20120%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3ELarissa%20Carvalho%20(BRA)%20v%20Elin%20Oberg%20(SWE)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EHussein%20Salem%20(IRQ)%20v%20Arlan%20Faurillo%20(PHI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Company%20Profile
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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More on animal trafficking
Company Profile
Company name: Fine Diner
Started: March, 2020
Co-founders: Sami Elayan, Saed Elayan and Zaid Azzouka
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and food delivery
Initial investment: Dh75,000
Investor: Dtec Startupbootcamp
Future plan: Looking to raise $400,000
Total sales: Over 1,000 deliveries in three months
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
