Surging demand for oil from emerging markets will increasingly be met by non-Opec supply, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Use of crude in developing economies will outstrip oil consumption in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development for the first time this quarter, the agency predicted in a report released yesterday.
But crude will increasingly be supplied from producers outside Opec, as the organisation struggles to ramp up production capacity against the backdrop of political instability.
At the same time, US production will grow faster than anticipated, driven by the boom in unconventional oil and gas.
"Together, these powerful forces are redefining the way oil is being produced, processed, traded and consumed around the world," the IEA said in its in its annual medium-term oil market report (MTOMR).
"There is hardly any aspect of the global oil supply chain that will not undergo some measure of transformation over the next five years, with significant consequences for the global economy and oil security."
Demand for crude from non-OECD countries, notably China, is projected at 44.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of this year by the IEA, slightly above the 44.6 million bpd expected to be used by developed economies.
"This has been a trend in motion for several years now, since China came into the frame back in 2004," said Amrita Sen, the chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects.
New extraction techniques are pushing production in North America to new heights. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has already swamped the United States and Canadian natural gas market with additional supply, and oil production is starting to follow suit.
US oil is expected to make up half of the additional 6 million bpd non-Opec oil that will flow into the market by 2018, according to the IEA.
The agency predicts that Opec capacity will rise by 1.75 million bpd to 36.75 million bpd in this period, which is 750,000 bpd less than it had forecast in last year's report.
"The balance of global supply growth, more or less evenly split between Opec and non-Opec in the 2012 MTOMR, is tilting towards the latter," said the IEA.
It also said capacity increases in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi would be offset by political risk in North and West Africa in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, which will discourage international oil companies from investing in additional production. Projects have already been delayed in Algeria, Libya and Nigeria, noted the agency.
An effective international sanctions regime is expected to lower production in Iran by about a third by 2018. Iraq, which the IEA believes will probably double its capacity to 6 million bpd by 2020, will take longer than previously anticipated to boost its production.
In spite of stunted capacity growth, Opec will continue to play an important role in the oil markets, says the IEA, which positions itself as the organisation representing the interests of oil-importing countries.
"Opec will still very much be needed. The new supply will not spell the end for Opec," said Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA executive director.
According to the IEA's monthly report, also released yesterday, Opec raised its production by 200,000 bpd to 30.7 million bpd in April. The 2013 call on Opec, or demand for the organisation's crude, was revised down by 400,000 bpd to 28.9 million bpd as non-Opec production rises.
fneuhof@thenational.ae
The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Scoreline
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 17
Jebel Ali Dragons 20
Harlequins Tries: Kinivilliame, Stevenson; Cons: Stevenson 2; Pen: Stevenson
Dragons Tries: Naisau, Fourie; Cons: Love 2; Pens: Love 2
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre flat-six twin-turbocharged
Transmission: eight-speed PDK automatic
Power: 445bhp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh474,600
On Sale: Now
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The 10 Questions
- Is there a God?
- How did it all begin?
- What is inside a black hole?
- Can we predict the future?
- Is time travel possible?
- Will we survive on Earth?
- Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
- Should we colonise space?
- Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
- How do we shape the future?
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
