This week I was planning to write a column explaining why Apple shares are overvalued. The news that Apple has more cash than the US government, together with the fact that the trendy tech firm is now worth more than the combined market capitalisation of European banks, was enough to make me think that it was due for a correction.
Cynics often suppose that these pieces are dashed out in the time it takes me to drive from home to the office, but in fact they are carefully crafted to appear effortless, hiding days of toil and a terrific amount of investigation and data-crunching.
For example, in this case I even had an email exchange with an old colleague of mine, a former media editor of The Sunday Times who was once a keen advocate of the PC until he had an epiphany in the Apple shop in London's Regent Street. Now he owns more of the half-bitten Apple products than even my daughters.
He had reminded me that I had often urged him to follow the old stock market adage of "sell in May and go away". What would I suggest now? In such circumstances, I always think it makes sense to look at what everybody else thinks is a dead cert, and do the opposite. Obviously this is best done with other people's money, but as those characters who shorted the US property market know, there is plenty of cash in being contrarian.
"Sell Apple," I told him.
"Don't be a fool," he replied. "The company has barely got a foothold in China and when it gets a grip it will explode."
This did not deter me, so I spent most of my time this week looking at all the disasters that could befall the tech giant, and preparing my argument. And I was just sitting over breakfast thinking of an opening line, when my wife piped up.
"Jobs gone," she said.
"Yours or mine?" I replied.
"No, you fool. Steve Jobs, the head of Apple."
"Damn."
That's the trouble with good ideas these days. They last about as long as it takes to write a Twitter feed. In a similar fashion, everyone has thought for the past few weeks that gold is the only sound investment. If the world is going to hell in a handcart, best to have something portable, must be the thinking. I have never been a fan of gold as an investment. It has no yield and a value much beyond its worth. But it's shiny and it gleams and people are attracted to it like magpies.
George Soros and Nouriel Roubini, those other two tip-top commentators, share my opinion of the stuff, although I would probably rather have it than shares in a dotcom company. Gold may be a better investment than racehorses or sailing boats, but if the slide of the past few days continues - down 9 per cent from $1,913.50 to $1,739.55 - it may never stop.
Those of you who have queued up at the Emirates Palace Hotel to buy your ingot or badgered a jeweller to smelt down the Rolex and sell you a brick, must now be feeling pretty sick. But have no fear: it may probably come back, perhaps any time in the next 25 years, and your children will thank you for it.
What about oil? Surely that's a sound investment and only going one way? I refer you to the wise comments of Ali Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, who whenever he is asked which way the oil price is going by eager reporters, replies: "If I knew that I would be in Las Vegas."
The Saudis are famous for not buying any financial oil hedging products. Even so it must be very reassuring to have wells full of the stuff sitting in the garden.
The moral of this must be that if you think something might happen, act on it immediately before it's too late. These days the world is so full of black swans that you struggle to find a white one. The Indian cricket side were no sooner the best team in the world than they looked like they didn't know one end of the bat from the other, with one honourable exception, the Great Wall of Dravid. We should learn never to take anything for granted. In addition, never trust anyone who makes a prediction, especially about the future.
However, I shall end by suggesting that it is time to sell all your gold bullion, and put it into Apple shares. After all, if a fake Apple shop in a remote part of China can do a roaring trade, how successful would the real thing be, with or without its charismatic leader?
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
Company%20profile
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FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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Not Dark Yet
Shelby Lynne and Allison Moorer
Four stars
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
WITHIN%20SAND
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
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You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round