So Gordon Brown is panhandling around the Gulf this week, which may be a solid indication for contrarians that the worst of the crisis is behind us. As a former chancellor of the exchequer, Mr Brown may be a sharper pencil than most, but politicians unfortunately don't often sit on the cutting-edge of financial trends. They are usually rather woefully behind.
So it stands to reason that Mr Brown's calls for help come too late. Mr Brown may be trying to use his shining but brief moment of clarity - nationalising the UK's banks and thereby forcing the US and Europe to do the same - to claw back some political credibility for himself. Better late than never.
But currency markets and treasuries indicate that the Fed's rate cut last week appears to have staved off the emerging markets crisis by convincing investors that the carry trade is a better bet than the US dollar and arresting the perverse flight to safety in US dollar investment. As an indication that the collapse of risk appetite has abated, the Swiss franc has also declined. Funds are already flowing back into emerging markets, except perhaps this one. The euro and Australian dollar have resumed their fall, presumably in anticipation of a co-ordinated rate cut this week with the Bank of England.
The troubles at Gulf Bank in Kuwait have crystallised questions over the health of the Gulf's banking sector, its exposure to regional real estate and its risk provisioning in general. Fitch Ratings' very helpful report over the weekend on UAE debt underscores that the risk is largely in the financial sector, and not necessarily in government-backed corporations such as Dubai Inc, although Taqa's burgeoning debt load does raise some eyebrows.
The fact that the market has not responded to the Central Bank's sluggishness to mark rates down along with the Fed is a troubling sign. It seems to indicate that investors believe that either the Central Bank is bluffing or that a bailout of the country's banks is around the corner.
One sector of particular worry is the Islamic banks. While the fundamentals of Islamic finance have enormous ethical appeal, the mainstream form being practiced globally is little more than a form of semantic marketing that differs very little from conventional finance except that, because it is newer, it has not yet exposed itself to the type of securities that have torpedoed the world's largest financial institutions.
One problematic thing about Islamic banking is its reliance on property as the basis for all lending. The requirement that all loans be fully backed by an asset virtually eliminates leverage. That may sound good in our present climate, but it reduces the velocity of money in an economy. Moreover, the fact that funds cannot be obtained in the Islamic finance setting without property stands to push property and commodity prices (the basis for the Islamic version of a derivative - the commodity-backed murabaha) even higher since they are the only basis for an extension of credit.
Worse, Islamic banks are exposed like no others to cycles in the property sector. When the IMF performed its stress tests of UAE banks, Islamic banks were found the most susceptible.
The good news is that the world is readying to celebrate a Barack Obama victory in the US presidential elections. It's hard to find any corner of the world that doesn't welcome an Obama win, but for this region it isn't clear that Mr Obama will actually be better than Republican John McCain, for reasons I've already elaborated. He is almost definitely not going to be better for any Americans living in the UAE, having authored legislation to tighten restrictions on the use of non-US bank accounts by US citizens.
Life for Americans abroad will get very complicated indeed if such legislation is passed by the Obama Congress. The end of income tax exemptions for Americans abroad could well be nigh. And what better time to move back to the US than during a Democratic administration presiding over the worst recession since the Great Depression? Can you say works progress administration? Gravy days for artists, writers and hopefully bloggers and columnists caught in a vice of high inflation, politial uncertainty, mind-numbing ID card registration queues and now higher taxes.
warnold@thenational.ae
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Company%20profile
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The Freedom Artist
By Ben Okri (Head of Zeus)
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
'Lost in Space'
Creators: Matt Sazama, Burk Sharpless, Irwin Allen
Stars: Molly Parker, Toby Stephens, Maxwell Jenkins
Rating: 4/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Q&A with Dash Berlin
Welcome back. What was it like to return to RAK and to play for fans out here again?
It’s an amazing feeling to be back in the passionate UAE again. Seeing the fans having a great time that is what it’s all about.
You're currently touring the globe as part of your Legends of the Feels Tour. How important is it to you to include the Middle East in the schedule?
The tour is doing really well and is extensive and intensive at the same time travelling all over the globe. My Middle Eastern fans are very dear to me, it’s good to be back.
You mix tracks that people know and love, but you also have a visually impressive set too (graphics etc). Is that the secret recipe to Dash Berlin's live gigs?
People enjoying the combination of the music and visuals are the key factor in the success of the Legends Of The Feel tour 2018.
Have you had some time to explore Ras al Khaimah too? If so, what have you been up to?
Coming fresh out of Las Vegas where I continue my 7th annual year DJ residency at Marquee, I decided it was a perfect moment to catch some sun rays and enjoy the warm hospitality of Bab Al Bahr.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Pakistan v New Zealand Test series
Pakistan: Sarfraz (c), Hafeez, Imam, Azhar, Sohail, Shafiq, Azam, Saad, Yasir, Asif, Abbas, Hassan, Afridi, Ashraf, Hamza
New Zealand: Williamson (c), Blundell, Boult, De Grandhomme, Henry, Latham, Nicholls, Ajaz, Raval, Sodhi, Somerville, Southee, Taylor, Wagner
Umpires: Bruce Oxerford (AUS) and Ian Gould (ENG); TV umpire: Paul Reiffel (AUS); Match referee: David Boon (AUS)
Tickets and schedule: Entry is free for all spectators. Gates open at 9am. Play commences at 10am
Company%20Profile
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia