Saudi Arabia plans to slow its spending to the lowest pace in more than a decade next year as the government responds to warnings that high expenditure risks running down oil wealth for future generations.
The impact of the budget, announced by the finance ministry this week, is likely to be closely watched by regional contractors as the kingdom scales back the pace on large building projects.
The 4 per cent rise in total budgeted spending to 855 billion riyals (Dh837.4bn) compares to a 5.9 per cent increase in actual expenditure during the current fiscal year.
The budget’s 248bn riyals earmarked for capital expenditure is around 13 per cent down from this year, the first time in 12 years that the government has trimmed planned spending in that area.
“The clear message this budget is giving is that Saudi Arabia is trying to balance supporting growth in areas where the private sector is less active while maintaining medium-term fiscal sustainability,” said Monica Malik, the chief economist of EFG-Hermes, the Egyptian investment bank.
“There’s a recognition Saudi Arabia has to moderate the rate of spending growth, although the budget is still expansionary.”
The government rolled out a record fiscal stimulus in 2009, first to help to counter the effects of the global financial crisis and then in 2011 to ward off regional social unrest. As a result, spending this year was 78 per cent up from levels of five years ago.
The IMF warned the kingdom earlier this year that overspending was threatening the preservation of oil wealth for future generations. It also said that the budget could slide into deficit by 2016 if spending continued to accelerate.
Under the budget for next year, current spending will continue the growth of recent years, up by 13 per cent to 607bn riyals. Much of that outlay is made up of payment for wages and salaries after the government handed out public-sector pay rises in 2011.
The slowdown in capital spending could further hurt the GCC’s largest construction market.
Many companies have already been impacted by labour and raw material shortages stemming from the government’s recent crackdown on illegal workers.
“This is a dampener on top of those more immediate issues for contractors,” said an analyst at a regional investment bank.
The UAE-based Drake & Scull International has nearly half of its project backlog in Saudi Arabia. Arabtec, the region’s biggest contractor, is working on several projects in the kingdom including a 105-bed hospital in Riyadh. Neither contractor was available to comment yesterday.
Total Saudi state spending next year is still expected to overshoot budgeted levels, as it has for the past decade. Revenues – 90 per cent of which come from oil - are also likely to be higher than the 855bn riyal forecast.
But the budget suggests policymakers are cautious about the outlook for the oil market next year. For the first time since 2005, the government has forecast a balanced budget, rather than a surplus for next year. This year’s surplus is expected to be equivalent to 7.3 per cent of GDP.
Commodities including oil are expected to face downward pressure next year as the Federal Reserve in the United States scales back its economic stimulus programme.
“Lower crude oil prices and reduced production might materialise, with the increased possibility of oversupply from Opec and non-Opec, which will weigh heavily on oil revenues and will reverse the hefty fiscal and current account surpluses of recent years,” wrote economists at NCB, the Saudi Arabian bank.
However, substantial net foreign assets would help to act as a buffer to any global shocks, the bank added.
Fahad Alturki, the head of research at Jadwa Investment, the Saudi Arabian investment bank, said the budget would require prices of North Sea Brent to about US$85 per barrel in order to break even next year. The bank forecast Brent crude prices to average $104 per barrel next year, down from $110 so far this year.
As consistent with the government’s policy of creating jobs and diversifying the economy, nearly a quarter of next year’s spending will go towards education and training.
tarnold@thenational.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
