Saudi Arabia's government could step in to buy collapsing stock on the local bourse and the central bank will keep banks liquid if necessary, but the global financial crisis should have a limited effect on the oil giant.
Barring surprises such as the sudden bank collapses that hit other major economies, analysts predict Saudi Arabia's status as the world's largest oil exporter offers it at least short-term protection even though falling oil prices will cut its earnings.
"They have a cushion because of the oil money in the treasury and if anyone's going to be in a safe position it's Saudi Arabia," one western diplomat said, reflecting the general view in the Riyadh diplomatic community.
But the worldwide falls in stock markets have raised questions about financial transparency in the kingdom, which holds foreign securities worth hundreds of billions of dollars and declines to give details about its investments.
Saudi Arabia's economic profile has witnessed a stunning turnaround in the last decade, while the government - dominated by the Saudi royal family - has retained a closed political culture that keeps the disenfranchised public in the dark.
Back in 1998 when King Abdullah, as crown prince, told Saudis bluntly the oil boom was over and the country would have to tighten its belt, gross domestic product (GDP) was US$144 billion (Dh528.98bn) and oil was hovering around $10 a barrel. Last year, GDP was $446bn while oil rose to nearly $100 a barrel. This year's budget assumes a modest oil price of $50 a barrel.
"Oil-producing countries have excellent financial cover so they are the least affected by the world crisis. The fear is that US and British oil firms could reduce energy investment in the Middle East," said analyst Aqeel al Inezi.
Concern over the fate of Saudi-listed firms has led the country's media coverage. Outlets such as Al Arabiya television have had days of feverish coverage aiming to reassure a small elite of wealthy investors that the market will rise again.
The stock market hit its lowest level in four years on Saturday, falling below 6,000 points. On Monday, it surged 7.5 per cent, in line with other Gulf bourses, to above 6,800.
Investors have already gone through the psychological barrier of a bourse collapse after the market fell 50 per cent to about 10,000 in 2006. And the number of daily traders has shrunk considerably since then, as most ordinary Saudis, struggling to manage with high inflation, have kept away.
Industrialist Abdul-Rahman al Zamil said the government could conceivably buy stock if the market collapses further. Many of the key stocks on the market are already majority-owned by a highly conservative government.
On Sunday, the central bank, known as SAMA, cut its key benchmark lending rate for the first time in almost two years and lowered bank reserve requirements, saying inflationary pressures had eased. Price rises in recent months hit their highest levels in 30 years.
SAMA has also sought to reassure the public that government investments abroad are safe and that liquidity in the wider economy will not dry up.
Lack of transparency means the extent of Saudi Arabia's investment overseas remains unknown. Six major banks have denied they have any exposure to toxic US mortgages.
Muhammad al Jasser, the deputy governor, said SAMA's investments abroad were "low-risk" but gave no more details. SAMA's August monthly report showed it had $285bn invested in foreign securities and $79bn in foreign bank deposits.
Other government bodies had $63bn in foreign securities and $5bn deposits with foreign banks. Their total deposits in banks fell between July and August by the same amount that their foreign securities investments rose.
Private Saudi investors often prefer anonymity, while their fortunes could have an economic impact at home.
The Swiss bank UBS last year sold a stake to a Saudi investor, and listed Saudi companies have expanded globally. Saudi industrial giant Sabic acquired General Electric's plastics division for $11.6bn last year.
Analysts say the Saudi reaction to the global financial crisis has highlighted problems of transparency in an economy that remains fundamentally strong.
Abdulhamid al Amri, of the Saudi Economic Association, said official reassurances could have prevented the bourse losses.
"Saudi stocks saw a correction that exceeds declines in markets directly hit by the crisis," he said. "The Capital Market Authority as a regulator is not committed to transparency."
A former head of the regulatory body, Ibrahim al Nasseri, told a Saudi newspaper this week that listed firms do not abide by disclosure requirements and said that insider trading continues.
* Reuters
Virtual banks explained
What is a virtual bank?
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority defines it as a bank that delivers services through the internet or other electronic channels instead of physical branches. That means not only facilitating payments but accepting deposits and making loans, just like traditional ones. Other terms used interchangeably include digital or digital-only banks or neobanks. By contrast, so-called digital wallets or e-wallets such as Apple Pay, PayPal or Google Pay usually serve as intermediaries between a consumer’s traditional account or credit card and a merchant, usually via a smartphone or computer.
What’s the draw in Asia?
Hundreds of millions of people under-served by traditional institutions, for one thing. In China, India and elsewhere, digital wallets such as Alipay, WeChat Pay and Paytm have already become ubiquitous, offering millions of people an easy way to store and spend their money via mobile phone. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines are also among the world’s biggest under-banked countries; together they have almost half a billion people.
Is Hong Kong short of banks?
No, but the city is among the most cash-reliant major economies, leaving room for newcomers to disrupt the entrenched industry. Ant Financial, an Alibaba Group Holding affiliate that runs Alipay and MYBank, and Tencent Holdings, the company behind WeBank and WeChat Pay, are among the owners of the eight ventures licensed to create virtual banks in Hong Kong, with operations expected to start as early as the end of the year.
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs: 2019 Subaru Forester
Price, base: Dh105,900 (Premium); Dh115,900 (Sport)
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 182hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 239Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.1L / 100km (estimated)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
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Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
PROVISIONAL FIXTURE LIST
Premier League
Wednesday, June 17 (Kick-offs uae times) Aston Villa v Sheffield United 9pm; Manchester City v Arsenal 11pm
Friday, June 19 Norwich v Southampton 9pm; Tottenham v Manchester United 11pm
Saturday, June 20 Watford v Leicester 3.30pm; Brighton v Arsenal 6pm; West Ham v Wolves 8.30pm; Bournemouth v Crystal Palace 10.45pm
Sunday, June 21 Newcastle v Sheffield United 2pm; Aston Villa v Chelsea 7.30pm; Everton v Liverpool 10pm
Monday, June 22 Manchester City v Burnley 11pm (Sky)
Tuesday, June 23 Southampton v Arsenal 9pm; Tottenham v West Ham 11.15pm
Wednesday, June 24 Manchester United v Sheffield United 9pm; Newcastle v Aston Villa 9pm; Norwich v Everton 9pm; Liverpool v Crystal Palace 11.15pm
Thursday, June 25 Burnley v Watford 9pm; Leicester v Brighton 9pm; Chelsea v Manchester City 11.15pm; Wolves v Bournemouth 11.15pm
Sunday June 28 Aston Villa vs Wolves 3pm; Watford vs Southampton 7.30pm
Monday June 29 Crystal Palace vs Burnley 11pm
Tuesday June 30 Brighton vs Manchester United 9pm; Sheffield United vs Tottenham 11.15pm
Wednesday July 1 Bournemouth vs Newcastle 9pm; Everton vs Leicester 9pm; West Ham vs Chelsea 11.15pm
Thursday July 2 Arsenal vs Norwich 9pm; Manchester City vs Liverpool 11.15pm
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Premier League results
Saturday
Crystal Palace 1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2
Cardiff City 2 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Bournemouth 2
Leicester City 3 Fulham 1
Newcastle United 3 Everton 2
Southampton 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Manchester City 3 Watford 1
Sunday
Liverpool 4 Burnley 2
Chelsea 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers 1
Arsenal 2 Manchester United 0
