As Saudi Arabia prepares to issue an international bond sale this year, its credit rating may come under pressure in the future from its ageing population.
The kingdom’s ageing population could put a strain on public finances, exacerbate debt levels and lead to a credit rating downgrade if reforms are not introduced over the next 30 years, the ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) said.
Any Saudi rating downgrade will probably put pressure on the country to pay more interest than some of it Gulf peers for its sovereign bonds. Under the National Transformation Plan for 2020 revealed in April, the Saudi government plans to increase the debt-to-GDP ratio to 30 per cent from 7.7 per cent now to finance the fiscal deficit.
Saudi foreign bond sales tend to be few and far in between, with most issuances coming from state-linked entities such as Saudi Electricity Company. SEC’s thinly traded sukuk maturing in 2044 had a yield of 5.7 per cent yesterday.
Age-related government expenditure on pensions and health care could surge to 14 per cent of GDP by 2050 from 6 per cent now, leading to a ballooning of the net debt-to-GDP ratio to 340 per cent of GDP by 2050 if the government fails to amend its policies, the credit ratings agency said in a report.
The increase in Saudi age-related expenditure is higher than the projected 3.7-percentage-point increase for the median of 58 sovereigns that S&P has analysed. The high debt level of 340 per cent of GDP would make Saudi Arabia one of six sovereigns with net debt levels exceeding 250 per cent by 2050, S&P said.
“Saudi Arabia’s growing elderly population could put pressure on public finances and government debt over the next three decades in the absence of government reforms to contain the cost of age-related spending, according to our analysis,” S&P said.
The ratings agency is forecasting that the Saudi Arabian population will expand to 46 million by 2050 from 32 million last year, with the percentage of elderly people edging up to 15 per cent of total citizens from 3 per cent now.
“Under our hypothetical no-policy-change scenario, our current A- rating on Saudi Arabia would likely come under increasing pressure over the next 30 years,” S&P said.
“By 2045, we expect that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal indicators will have weakened such that they would be more in line with sovereigns currently rated in the speculative-grade category, because, in our view, the projected improvement in GDP per capita would not be able to offset the potential fiscal deterioration.”
S&P kept Saudi Arabia’s main credit rating on hold at A- in April after two downgrades in the prior six months following a collapse of oil revenue and dwindling foreign currency reserves. S&P cut the country’s rating to A+ in October, subsequently cutting it again to A- this February and leaving the country’s rating four levels above non-investment-grade territory.
The big chunk of age-related spending will be channelled to pension outlays, which are forecast to rise to 9 per cent of GDP in 2050 from the current 3 per cent of GDP.
“An additional factor that could affect our current projections for Saudi Arabia is the cost of long-term care – which is likely to increase as the economy grows,” the agency said.
Nevertheless, S&P expects the government to undertake demographic reforms to contain the public debt and narrow the fiscal deficit.
“Owing to growth in the young population, subscribers to Saudi Arabia’s generous pension system have been outstripping growth in the number of beneficiaries, contributing to the overall financial health of the system,” S&P said. “Over time, we believe Saudi Arabian governments will likely consider demographic reforms to the system to ensure its sustainability.”
dalsaadi@thenational.ae
A Prayer Before Dawn
Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire
Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai
Three stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Saudi Cup race day
Schedule in UAE time
5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)
MATCH INFO
Everton v Tottenham, Sunday, 8.30pm (UAE)
Match is live on BeIN Sports
THE SCORES
Ireland 125 all out
(20 overs; Stirling 72, Mustafa 4-18)
UAE 125 for 5
(17 overs, Mustafa 39, D’Silva 29, Usman 29)
UAE won by five wickets
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
match info
Maratha Arabians 138-2
C Lynn 91*, A Lyth 20, B Laughlin 1-15
Team Abu Dhabi 114-3
L Wright 40*, L Malinga 0-13, M McClenaghan 1-17
Maratha Arabians won by 24 runs
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
India team for Sri Lanka series
Test squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
T20 squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shreyas Iyer, Surya Kumar Yadav, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (wk), Venkatesh Iyer, Deepak Chahar, Deepak Hooda, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Harshal Patel, Jasprit Bumrah, Avesh Khan
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
Tips to avoid getting scammed
1) Beware of cheques presented late on Thursday
2) Visit an RTA centre to change registration only after receiving payment
3) Be aware of people asking to test drive the car alone
4) Try not to close the sale at night
5) Don't be rushed into a sale
6) Call 901 if you see any suspicious behaviour
PROFILE BOX:
Company/date started: 2015
Founder/CEO: Rami Salman, Rishav Jalan, Ayush Chordia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Technology, Sales, Voice, Artificial Intelligence
Size: (employees/revenue) 10/ 100,000 downloads
Stage: 1 ($800,000)
Investors: Eight first-round investors including, Beco Capital, 500 Startups, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Hala Fadel, Odin Financial Services, Dubai Angel Investors, Womena, Arzan VC
More from Aya Iskandarani
MIDWAY
Produced: Lionsgate Films, Shanghai Ryui Entertainment, Street Light Entertainment
Directed: Roland Emmerich
Cast: Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Dennis Quaid, Aaron Eckhart, Luke Evans, Nick Jonas, Mandy Moore, Darren Criss
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Pakistan squad
Sarfraz (c), Zaman, Imam, Masood, Azam, Malik, Asif, Sohail, Shadab, Nawaz, Ashraf, Hasan, Amir, Junaid, Shinwari and Afridi
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
match details
Wales v Hungary
Cardiff City Stadium, kick-off 11.45pm
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
WISH
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Read more about the coronavirus
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
HOW TO WATCH
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Twitter: @thenationalnews
Instagram: @thenationalnews.com
TikTok: @thenationalnews
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2014
Number of employees: 36
Sector: Logistics
Raised: $2.5 million
Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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