RIYADH // Yousef al Furaidan, the production manager for one of Saudi Aramco's biggest oil projects, is unsure what more could be done to convince the world Saudi Arabia has the oil reserves, output capacity and spare capacity it claims.
The issue of Saudi oil data transparency resurfaced this month with the release by WikiLeaks of confidential cables from the US embassy in Riyadh urging Washington to heed a former Aramco executive's warning that the kingdom's reserves may have been overstated. The rekindled controversy has intensified as political tensions have erupted in parts of the Mena region, with anti-government protests now endangering oil exports from some Opec states including Libya.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest Opec oil producer, has felt only minor repercussions from the furore. However, to many New York oil traders, the kingdom's ability to compensate for supply disruptions elsewhere is again an open question.
But there is no sound reason for that, insists Mr al Furaidan. "Saudi Aramco has the most powerful [oil reservoir] simulator in the world. Our figures are very, very conservative. We are very confident of them."
And Dr Sadad al Husseini, the former Aramco production head cited by WikiLeaks, said this month he did not question the reported proved oil reserves and his "casual" 2007 conversation with a US consulate employee was misrepresented.
"In regards to Saudi Aramco's oil production capacity, the giant multibillion-dollar expansion projects which were funded in recent years are now all a visible reality for the whole industry to see," Dr al Husseini added.
What is certainly true, however, is that in 1982 Aramco started withholding data on individual wells.
Most private-sector oil companies also do this, but as the Saudi national petroleum company pumps more crude than any other oil enterprise worldwide, the change led to intense speculation by industry observers who were not necessarily technical experts.
They included the late Matt Simmons, the US investment banker who wrote Twilight in the Desert, a 2005 book postulating that Saudi oil output was about to peak. The book's central thesis was not borne out but continuing controversy over data transparency is far from trivial.
To Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, the Saudi assistant petroleum minister, access to reliable data on global oil supplies, stocks and consumption is a critical issue for oil consumers and producers.
It could help to stabilise oil markets by damping speculation, Prince Abdulaziz said on the eve of yesterday's International Energy Forum.
"The forum calls for a basic thing, which is transparency of data," he said. "If this is restricted, it would weaken the forum."
Mr Furaidan believes Aramco is setting an example of research-based clarity that other oil producers ought to emulate.
Current Saudi oil production and the kingdom's previous agility in responding to fluctuations in global oil demand reflect the reliability of the reported figures, he argued.
Since 2009, when a big increment in oil output from the supergiant Khurais oilfield and two small satellite fields came onstream, Saudi Arabia has maintained its oil production capacity at an unprecedented 12.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Mr Furaidan said.
Aramco accounts for 12 million bpd of that total, with the rest supplied by its joint venture with Chevron in the neutral zone separating Saudi Arabia from Kuwait.
Khurais, one of the biggest oilfields in the world, is estimated to contain about 27 billion barrels of light crude oil that could be extracted economically. The field accounts for almost 10 per cent of total Saudi proved reserves, estimated at more than 260 billion barrels.
In the largest single-phase oil expansion project in the oil industry's history, the 30-year sustainable output capacity from Khurais and its satellites was quadrupled to 1.2 million bpd in June 2009, from three years earlier. Output could be pushed to 1.4 million bpd or even 1.5 million bpd, Mr Furaidan said.
The project pumped 1.2 million bpd on its first day of operation, proving the stated capacity for Khurais was accurate. Since then, output has fluctuated according to market demand. On Monday, Khurais pumped about 960,000 bpd, up from about 700,000 the previous day.
Production from each of the more than 300 wells at Khurais is individually controlled by choke valves at each wellhead. The size of the valve openings are adjusted electronically from the project's control centre. From inside the octagonal building, a team of Aramco technicians constantly monitors and fine-tunes the field's performance.
Out in the desert, 270km south-west of Dammam on the Gulf coast, sophisticated instruments transmit real-time data on reservoir conditions from each well. The data is used to make short-term output decisions and continually update the reservoir models that are the basis for Aramco's reserves and spare capacity information.
"Every day we clock down-hole data and we use it for analysis. All over the country we maintain spare capacity in this way," Mr Furaidan said.
Because of the company's strict attention to reservoir monitoring, he is confident that between 50 and 75 per cent of the total oil in place at Khurais can be extracted.
Mr Furaidan is also confident the kingdom's current spare capacity after the completion of the Khurais project is at least 4 million bpd, as stated, and not a barrel less.
That is more than the total current output of Iran, the second-biggest Opec exporter.
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Notable groups (UAE time)
Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson (12.47pm)
Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Louis Oosthuizen (12.58pm)
Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood (1.09pm)
Sergio Garcia, Jason Day, Zach Johnson (4.04pm)
Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, Adam Scott (4.26pm)
Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Rory McIlroy (5.48pm)
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
OIL PLEDGE
At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.
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MATCH INFO
Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')
Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')
Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
