The financial profiles of GCC banks are set to stabilise by the second half of 2018 as they absorb the effect of softer economic conditions over the past two years, according to a report by the rating agency Standard & Poor's.
“We think GCC banks’ profitability will stabilise at a lower level than historically, underpinned by an increased cost of risk and the introduction of value added tax, some of which banks will pass on to their clients,” S&P said.
However, muted loan growth, higher cost of risk and the introduction of VAT in the region are likely to keep bank profits and lending growth lower than in past years, the report said. Most banks in the GCC will have realised the impact of sluggish economic growth in recent years on the quality of their assets by the middle of 2018, the report said, noting that this comes after two years of "significant pressure" on the sector.
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In its corresponding sector outlook last year, S&P said “the end of the commodities boom” had increased pressure on banks’ asset quality and profitability in 2016 and that further weakening was likely into 2017 and 2018.
According to the report, GCC banks' liquidity improved over 2017 and no major change is foreseen in 2018. Continued debt or sukuk issuance by GCC governments this year will absorb some of the liquidity without a major change in bank risk appetite.
Though, the cost of risk to banks is set to increase this year due to their adoption of new IFRS 9 accounting standards, and the higher amount of restructured and past due loans on banks’ balance sheets.
Meanwhile, lending growth is expected to remain muted, S&P said, citing lower oil prices to that have slowed GCC economies and reduced growth opportunities for their banking systems.
S&P forecasts unweighted average economic growth of 2.5 per cent for the six GCC countries in 2018-2019, less than half the growth in 2012.
Private sector lending growth is forecast to rise to 3 to 4 per cent in 2018-2019 from 2.6 per cent on average in the first nine months of 2017, supported by initiatives such as Dubai Expo 2020, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, Kuwait's Vision 2035 and the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.
A "surge in geopolitical risk and ensuing delays of some of these initiatives could severely affect our base-case scenario", S&P said.
The majority (72 per cent) of S&P-rated banks in the GCC carry a stable outlook with strong capitalisation, although many Qatari banks carry a negative outlook due to geopolitical factors, it added.
Other rating agencies have also predicted a stable outlook for GCC banks this year, noting their “resilience” against flat economic growth.
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?
Some facts about bees:
The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer
The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days
A queen bee lives for 3-5 years
This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony
About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive
Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.
Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen
Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids
Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments
Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive, protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts
Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain
Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities
The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes
Is beekeeping dangerous?
As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.
“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”
Teaching your child to save
Pre-school (three - five years)
You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.
Early childhood (six - eight years)
Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.
Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)
Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.
Young teens (12 - 14 years)
Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.
Teenage (15 - 18 years)
Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.
Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)
Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.
* JP Morgan Private Bank
The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
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In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young