On the anniversary of its revolution, Friday last week, Libya's oil industry had been in chaos for six years. Large oil companies active there – ConocoPhillips, Hess and Suncor among them – have stopped including it in their forecasts. A conference this month on Libya-US relations, titled New Vision, Hope and Opportunities, was denied any hope when Donald Trump's chaotic travel ban forced its cancellation. And yet, amid worsening fighting and political chaos, oil production has rebounded sharply from late last year.
Before its 2011 revolution, Libya produced 1.6 million barrels of high-quality, light sweet crude per day. Output plummeted during the conflict, recovered quickly, then fell again as militia infighting, local protesters, a rogue oilfield guards force and an ISIL affiliate closed ports and damaged fields.
At times in 2016, production dropped as low as 180,000 barrels per day. It had picked up to 528,000 bpd by October, setting the benchmark for November's Opec talks. Libya, along with Nigeria, was exempted from participating in the agreement reached to cut the group's output.
But by last month, Libyan production had reached some 715,000 bpd, with optimistic talk of hitting 1.3 million bpd by the end of this year. The gain so far blunts the planned Opec cuts of 1.2 million bpd across the organisation.
The stage was set for this recovery in September when the Libyan National Army (LNA) of General Khalifa Haftar seized the eastern oil ports of Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Zueitina and Marsa El Brega from the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG), supporters of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. These ports, with a total capacity of 710,000 bpd export oil from the Sirte basin, the country’s producing heartland. The PFG, together with an Islamist group, the Benghazi Defence Brigades, launched a counterattack in December that was beaten off.
Also in December, the PFG ended its blockade of the pipeline from the important Sharara and El Fil (Elephant) fields in western Libya. In the wake of these gains, the chairman of Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC), Mustafa Sanallah, has been trying to entice foreign oil companies to return.
Mr Sanallah is seeking a release of funds from the GNA to pay for badly needed repairs to fields and oil storage facilities damaged in the fighting. Es Sider in particular has been able to export very little after an ISIS attack in January last year.
But the political situation remains chaotic. The GNA has UN recognition, but the rival House of Representatives, based in the eastern town of Tobruk and backed by General Haftar, refuses to acknowledge it. The general, seeking international allies, recently visited Moscow. Although the LNA now controls most of the country’s oilfields and export terminals, the proceeds flow to the GNA.
At current export levels and prices, Libya will earn about US$11 billion from oil exports this year, compared to the government budget of $26bn. With foreign currency reserves down to $43bn and inflation at 20 per cent, the currency has fallen to 6 dinars to the dollar on the black market, against the official rate of 1.4.
At the target rate of 1.3 million bpd, the country could close most of its budget deficit. But it seems unlikely to get much beyond 800,000 bpd or so without major repairs and investment in reopening shuttered fields. Dwindling savings have kept the country afloat but also fuelled the fighting. By next year, an escalating economic crisis seems inescapable.
In April, the eastern government attempted to sell oil independently but was frustrated by UN opposition. Should it at some point gain control of revenues from the territory it controls, western Libya and the GNA would face economic collapse. Without a rapid turnaround in security and political reconciliation, and the return of international operators, Libya’s impressive oil gains will be short-lived.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
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RESULT
Wolves 1 (Traore 67')
Tottenham 2 (Moura 8', Vertonghen 90 1')
Man of the Match: Adama Traore (Wolves)
more from Janine di Giovanni
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
Not Dark Yet
Shelby Lynne and Allison Moorer
Four stars
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
THE SPECS
Aston Martin Rapide AMR
Engine: 6.0-litre V12
Transmission: Touchtronic III eight-speed automatic
Power: 595bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh999,563
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The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Squad for first two ODIs
Kohli (c), Rohit, Dhawan, Rayudu, Pandey, Dhoni (wk), Pant, Jadeja, Chahal, Kuldeep, Khaleel, Shami, Thakur, Rahul.
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NINE WINLESS GAMES
Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace (Oct 27, PL)
Liverpool 5-5 Arsenal (Oct 30, EFL)
Arsenal 1-1 Wolves (Nov 02, PL)
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Arsenal (Nov 6, Europa)
Leicester 2-0 Arsenal (Nov 9, PL)
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton (Nov 23, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Nov 28, Europa)
Norwich 2-2 Arsenal (Dec 01, PL)
Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Dec 05, PL)
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The years Ramadan fell in May
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The%20specs
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The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
