In the spring of 1992, Deng Xiaoping made his famous Southern Tour, which revitalised economic reform in China. With the concurrent opening of markets in the former Soviet sphere of influence, this modern wave of globalisation offered rich rewards to those ready to ride it.
Our region was not.
The long coastline of the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) faces fast-growing Asia to the east and wealthy Europe to the north. It commands vital sea routes – the Hormuz, Gibraltar, Suez and the Bosphorus – and the easiest lines from Central Asia and the Caspian to the ocean. Its young, fast-growing population should be a demographic asset.
Oil and gas prices, in the doldrums during the 1990s, soared to record heights from 2003 onwards as China’s energy demand took off. Recycling of petrodollars provided abundant capital.
Yet with a few exceptions, the wave of globalisation has broken on Mena’s stony ground. As another spring approaches, there is still little sign of real vision for tackling the region’s economic problems, little sign of a pragmatic and cunning reformer in the Deng mould.
Algeria used the oil windfall to maintain an ossified gerontocracy and keep its economy limping along. Iran under its former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, squandered it on populist giveaways and a confrontational foreign policy. Libya struggled under international sanctions and Muammar Qaddafi’s bizarre experiments. Sudan fought a bloody civil war and ultimately split up. And the unfortunate Iraqis endured the long misery of embargo, dictatorship, invasion and insurgency.
High energy prices faced the oil-poor Mena states with the painful necessity of reform. In Egypt, Tunisia and Syria, liberalisation and privatisation led to reasonable rates of economic growth. But they enriched a coterie of regime insiders and widened inequality.
The periphery, such as Tunisia’s phosphate mining interior, or the drought-stricken Syrian countryside, went neglected. Wasteful energy and food subsidies kept much of the population at a level of bare sustenance while draining funds badly needed for infrastructure, education and health.
Reforms that showered liberality mostly on the cronies of Hosni Mubarak, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Bashar Al Assad have made neoliberalism politically radioactive. As a result, the various postrevolutionary Egyptian governments have dithered over ending unaffordable subsidies and Hamdeen Sabahi’s dead-end Nasserist socialism remains popular.
Whatever political system the countries in transition settle on, the lack of economic growth and broad-based development makes politics a poisonous zero-sum struggle. Iraq, Yemen and Egypt illustrate this clearly in their different ways.
The GCC states did best at surfing the wave of globalisation. By luck and foresight, Qatar was placed to capitalise on booming demand for its liquefied natural gas from both east and west. Dubai transformed from a regional to a global business hub. Given limited resources, Oman developed the region’s most innovative oil and gas industry.
But even the GCC is facing growing fiscal headwinds, with rising spending meeting flat oil exports, likely falling prices and growing domestic energy demand. The model of Saudi Arabia in particular, where the state sponsors gigantic energy-intensive industries and absorbs citizens in a well-paid public sector, is running out of steam.
But elements of a successful Mena economic vision can be found and tailored to each country’s situation. The UAE offers a relatively open economy, efficient government and excellent infrastructure. Norway, Chile and Malaysia exemplify good natural resource wealth management. Brazil is tackling poverty and inequality. East Asia continues to inspire in export-led manufacturing. The United States leads in technology and entrepreneurship, not least in shale and solar energy. And the region needs to find its own path on energy subsidies and cleaning up its poor environmental record.
The external environment for the rest of the decade appears less favourable, not to mention the region’s continuing political turmoil. This is reason to redouble, not relent, on reform.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
more from Janine di Giovanni
The%20specs
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2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
