For a country that produces, transits and consumes little oil, Syrian news can certainly move markets.
Brent crude prices finished 1.3 per cent up on Friday after the US missile strikes against an airbase used by the regime of Bashar Al Assad to launch chemical weapons attacks. In the Syrian cauldron, this knee-jerk reaction may, nevertheless, not be wholly unfounded.
The US action might, as often before, prove to be a limited tactical action for demonstration purposes, helping the US president, Donald Trump, in his domestic troubles. Without any wider military or diplomatic strategy, it will resolve nothing in Syria’s civil war.
However, if it does lead to an escalating campaign against Mr Al Assad, this will further implicate three major oil players; Iran, Iraq and Russia.
Events in Syria affect Iran, and vice versa. A heightened confrontation in Syria may convince Iranian hardliners that they cannot afford another term for the moderate president Hassan Rouhani, who is up for re-election on May 19. They are already unhappy over Mr Rouhani’s attempts to reduce the influence of Revolutionary Guards-linked companies over the oil sector and cut them out of business deals.
For once, the conservatives appear to be aligning around a single candidate, Ebrahim Raisi, who is also a front-runner to become the supreme leader when Ayatollah Khamenei passes on.
The Rouhani administration has been open to negotiations over Syria that preserve Iran’s national interests while possibly sacrificing Mr Al Assad, but the hardliners have tied their policy to the survival of the Syrian dictator.
What that means for the nuclear deal that has restored Iran’s oil exports is hard to say. For now, its continuation probably depends more on US actions, including the upcoming renewal of sanctions waivers. It has not delivered the economic bonanza Iran had hoped for, but Mr Rouhani has probably done enough to win re-election – if the contest is fair.
Iraq, as so often, is largely a pawn. A strengthening of Russian air defences over Syria will hamper the US-led campaign against ISIL, also prolonging the recovery of Iraq’s north. More seriously, if the embargo on its oil were to resume, Iran has several options to retaliate by disrupting Iraqi oil.
Neither Iran nor Russia will do anything to affect their own oil exports in response to the US action. The dynamics of renewing the Opec/non-Opec production cuts are largely independent of Syria. But a wider military campaign may well end up killing Russians on the ground. A less cosy relationship between Moscow and Mr Trump would keep sanctions on the Russian oil industry in place. Its reach in the Middle East has grown longer, in recent deals with the Kurdish region, Libya, Qatar and Egypt.
The market is well placed to cope with a mini-crisis. Global excess oil stocks may have fallen but remain unusually high. The Opec limits have taken some supply off the counter, but that has the corresponding effect of creating spare capacity, available in an emergency. US shale has already been rebounding for several months in response to the Opec deal.
A major shock, such as the disruption of the 3.5 million barrels that leave Basra every day, would be harder to accommodate. To eliminate its dependence on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is expanding its east-west pipeline to 7 million barrels per day from its current 5 million bpd, but this will not be ready until late next year.
A few pinprick air strikes do not change much in oil – yet. Indeed, crude gave up most of its gains on Friday. But when an understaffed, conflicted and incoherent administration, resolved to talk and act tough, steps up its involvement in a multi-sided civil war against two petroleum powers, a 70-cent jump in oil prices is not an overreaction.
Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
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List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch
Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
Price: Dh1,000,885
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
Forced%20Deportations
%3Cp%3EWhile%20the%20Lebanese%20government%20has%20deported%20a%20number%20of%20refugees%20back%20to%20Syria%20since%202011%2C%20the%20latest%20round%20is%20the%20first%20en-mass%20campaign%20of%20its%20kind%2C%20say%20the%20Access%20Center%20for%20Human%20Rights%2C%20a%20non-governmental%20organization%20which%20monitors%20the%20conditions%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20in%20Lebanon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%9CIn%20the%20past%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20General%20Security%20was%20responsible%20for%20the%20forced%20deportation%20operations%20of%20refugees%2C%20after%20forcing%20them%20to%20sign%20papers%20stating%20that%20they%20wished%20to%20return%20to%20Syria%20of%20their%20own%20free%20will.%20Now%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20army%2C%20specifically%20military%20intelligence%2C%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20security%20operation%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Mohammad%20Hasan%2C%20head%20of%20ACHR.%3Cbr%3EIn%20just%20the%20first%20four%20months%20of%202023%20the%20number%20of%20forced%20deportations%20is%20nearly%20double%20that%20of%20the%20entirety%20of%202022.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ESince%20the%20beginning%20of%202023%2C%20ACHR%20has%20reported%20407%20forced%20deportations%20%E2%80%93%20200%20of%20which%20occurred%20in%20April%20alone.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20comparison%2C%20just%20154%20people%20were%20forcfully%20deported%20in%202022.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Violence%20
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Turkey - because the government look after animals so well there.
Favourite film: I love scary movies. I have so many favourites but The Ring stands out.
Favourite book: The Lord of the Rings. I didn’t like the movies but I loved the books.
Favourite colour: Black.
Favourite music: Hard rock. I actually also perform as a rock DJ in Dubai.
Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
The%20Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELamborghini%20LM002%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205.2-litre%20V12%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20450hp%20at%206%2C800rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E500Nm%20at%204%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFive-speed%20manual%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100kph%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%209%20seconds%20(approx)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210kph%20(approx)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EYears%20built%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201986-93%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20vehicles%20built%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20328%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EValue%20today%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24300%2C000%2B%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Movie: Saheb, Biwi aur Gangster 3
Producer: JAR Films
Director: Tigmanshu Dhulia
Cast: Sanjay Dutt, Jimmy Sheirgill, Mahie Gill, Chitrangda Singh, Kabir Bedi
Rating: 3 star
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.8%22%20quad-HD%2B%20dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%203120%20x%201440%2C%20505ppi%2C%20HDR10%2B%2C%20120Hz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204nm%20Qualcomm%20Snapdragon%208%20Gen%203%2C%2064-bit%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012GB%20RAM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStorage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20One%20UI%206.1%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20quad%20200MP%20wide%20f%2F1.7%20%2B%2050MP%20periscope%20telephoto%20f%2F3.4%20with%205x%20optical%2F10x%20optical%20quality%20zoom%20%2B%2010MP%20telephoto%202.4%20with%203x%20optical%20zoom%20%2B%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20f%2F2.2%3B%20100x%20Space%20Zoom%3B%20auto%20HDR%2C%20expert%20RAW%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208K%4024%2F30fps%2C%204K%4030%2F60%2F120fps%2C%20full-HD%4030%2F60%2F240fps%2C%20full-HD%20super%20slo-mo%40960fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205000mAh%2C%20fast%20wireless%20charging%202.0%2C%20Wireless%20PowerShare%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205G%2C%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3B%20built-in%20Galaxy%20S%20Pen%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP68%2C%20up%20to%201.5m%20of%20freshwater%20up%20to%2030%20minutes%3B%20dust-resistant%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESIM%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nano%20%2B%20nano%20%2F%20nano%20%2B%20eSIM%20%2F%20dual%20eSIM%20(varies%20in%20different%20markets)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Titanium%20black%2C%20titanium%20grey%2C%20titanium%20violet%2C%20titanium%20yellow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGalaxy%20S24%20Ultra%2C%20USB-C-to-C%20cable%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh5%2C099%20for%20256GB%2C%20Dh5%2C599%20for%20512GB%2C%20Dh6%2C599%20for%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
More coverage from the Future Forum
Victims%20of%20the%202018%20Parkland%20school%20shooting
%3Cp%3EAlyssa%20Alhadeff%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EScott%20Beigel%2C%2035%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMartin%20Duque%2C%2014%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ENicholas%20Dworet%2C%2017%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAaron%20Feis%2C%2037%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJaime%20Guttenberg%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EChris%20Hixon%2C%2049%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELuke%20Hoyer%2C%2015%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECara%20Loughran%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EGina%20Montalto%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJoaquin%20Oliver%2C%2017%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlaina%20Petty%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMeadow%20Pollack%2C%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EHelena%20Ramsay%2C%2017%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAlex%20Schachter%2C%2014%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECarmen%20Schentrup%2C%2016%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPeter%20Wang%2C%2015%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
