Investment banks are cutting staff amid mounting uncertainty in the euro zone and faltering growth in Asia. James Turley, the chief executive of Ernst & Young talks exclusively to The National about economic prospects for the year ahead.
What keeps you up at night?
When I look at the global economy I'm much less worried than I was at the depths of the financial crisis and the immediate recession that followed. We still have a multi-stage, multi-speed economy. I am concerned about the euro zone. The issues are quite complicated and beyond the simple characterisations. Everyone talks about the sovereign debt and the fiscal situation, which are obviously severe in many countries. But beneath that risk is a concern about growth across the whole region. If you are talking about the short-term dangers, a sustained period of low or no growth is very problematic.
Beneath that is the social change that is going to be necessary to be competitive. We are operating in places where people work 35 to 45 hours a week and retire in their early 50s in some countries.
In other regions of the world, people are working 45 to 50 hours a week until they are 65 and in still other regions they are working 65 to 75 hours and they never retire. This impacts competition and so I do worry about that. Are there reasons to be cheerful? North America is on the slow rebound, the spirit of entrepreneurship is strong and we are beginning to see traction of a sustained recovery. In the emerging markets, I am positive on those despite the short-term challenges.
If you look at China as an example, you are seeing GDP growth slow in large part because they can no longer count on 10 per cent growth every year by export-driven external demand. They need to rebalance that with consumer-driven growth, and they're doing that. But they need to do it faster than was planned because of the real weakness in Europe and North America. They'll work through that.
I see China, India, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Latin America as all being long-term success stories, not in straight lines, there will be bumps along the road, but long term success.
What is your view on Dubai as a regional financial hub?
I still think Dubai has a positive future. Dubai was almost alone in the region in its global connectivity so there are more westernised hotel properties and other property being built and a lot more travel options into Dubai.
Now the region is seeing more cities and countries building to a new level of prominence. We are seeing this in different cities across the region, so I don't think Dubai will be alone in the destination space for the Middle East and North Africa.
Has it become easier to do business in Saudi Arabia?
We have seen significant changes in terms of the easing of starting up a business. It is encouraging to see the number of procedures needed to open a business decline. In the kingdom it went from about 13 procedures to about four over the last five years. The average time it takes to complete those procedures may have gone from a 60-day horizon to about five days. So it is much easier to have the capital to form a business and go out and start hiring.
How did the Arab Spring impact your business?
We are blessed with the largest market share in the profession in the Middle East and North Africa, which means when there are disruptions to economies we are impacted. A lot of new relationships are being made not just on the corporate side but also on the government side in many of these markets.
Overall, we are staying on the front foot on all these changes and we're positive about them. By operating Ernst & Young as a single business in the region, even though we are in 15 different countries here, we are able to give the right resources at the right time in the right places.
Growth in the region has been a little bit retarded by the Arab Spring-summer-fall and winter, so I think we are growing slightly less than India or China, but we are very positive.
scronin@thenational.ae
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THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Stage 2
1. Mathieu van der Poel (NED) Alpecin-Fenix 4:18:30
2. Tadej Pogacar (SLV) UAE Team Emirates 0:00:06
3. Primoz Roglic (SLV) Jumbo-Visma 0:00:06
4. Wilco Kelderman (NED) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:00:06
5. Julian Alaphilippe (FRA) Deceuninck-QuickStep 0:00:08
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%202-litre%20direct%20injection%20turbo%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%207-speed%20automatic%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20261hp%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20400Nm%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20From%20Dh134%2C999%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 435hp at 5,900rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,800-5,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Price: from Dh498,542
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
Bio
Born in Dubai in 1994
Her father is a retired Emirati police officer and her mother is originally from Kuwait
She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
Her favourite film is Pacific Rim, directed by Guillermo del Toro
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
Previous men's records
- 2:01:39: Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) on 16/9/19 in Berlin
- 2:02:57: Dennis Kimetto (KEN) on 28/09/2014 in Berlin
- 2:03:23: Wilson Kipsang (KEN) on 29/09/2013 in Berlin
- 2:03:38: Patrick Makau (KEN) on 25/09/2011 in Berlin
- 2:03:59: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 28/09/2008 in Berlin
- 2:04:26: Haile Gebreselassie (ETH) on 30/09/2007 in Berlin
- 2:04:55: Paul Tergat (KEN) on 28/09/2003 in Berlin
- 2:05:38: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 14/04/2002 in London
- 2:05:42: Khalid Khannouchi (USA) 24/10/1999 in Chicago
- 2:06:05: Ronaldo da Costa (BRA) 20/09/1998 in Berlin
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The%20specs
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How do Sim card scams work?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards by claiming to be the victim, often pretending their phone has been lost or stolen in order to secure a new Sim.
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
