After a year in which Chinese growth slowed to its lowest level since the global economic crisis began, there is considerable optimism about this year and the prospects for reform by the newly installed leader Xi Jinping.
Annual economic growth dipped to 7.4 per cent in the third quarter of last year, the weakest rate since late 2008 and early 2009, but growth has been picking up steadily since October on the back of a slate of policies aimed at boosting economic expansion.
The upbeat assessment was given a boost with news that growth in the increasingly important services sector accelerated last month to its fastest pace in four months.
China's official purchasing managers' index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 56.1 last month from 55.6 in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Expansion of the world's second largest economy is likely to accelerate to around 8.5 per cent this year partly due to the nation's pro-growth policies, according to the official state news agency Xinhua.
The focus is likely to be on the quality of growth, on keeping the urbanisation process going while improving the lot of those on the land.
China's economy faces a whole host of problems - the country is saddled with huge debt, an overinflated state sector, an ever-widening wealth gap, difficult to budge special interests, a city-country divide and sluggish corporate earnings.
China will make sure there is measured growth in bank loans and social financing and will keep the yuan currency stable to cushion the economy against global headwinds, Xinhua reported after the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which was presided over by Mr Xi.
This two-day meeting is a key plank of the centrally planned economy. It takes place behind closed doors and brings together China's top economic leaders, including leading cadres, private and state-owned banks, central bankers and state firms.
"China will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in 2013," Xinhua said.
"The proactive fiscal policy will be combined with tax reforms and structural tax cuts and the prudent monetary policy will pay attention to dynamism and enhance operational flexibility," it said.
China is expected to concentrate on stabilising exports while boosting imports to gradually balance the country's international payments and expanding its outbound investment next year.
It's not necessarily all plain sailing. China's economy still faces global uncertainties along with rising trade protectionism, while the risk of rising inflation and asset bubbles globally is increasing.
But markets will have been pleased by Mr Xi's first trip as leader, a visit to the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, which was read as a sign that he is committed to reform because it has parallels with a similar trip by reformist Deng Xiaoping during his famous "southern tour" to the same area 20 years ago.
"Optimism on Chinese growth soared to a record high, global growth expectations rose to a 22-month high and almost two thirds are looking for steeper yield curves in 2013.
"Cash levels dipped very slightly to a mid-range 4.1 per cent, but hedge fund net exposure jumped to its highest level since August 2006," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a research note called "China in a Bull Shop".
Steve Tsang, at the China Policy Research Institute at the University of Nottingham, said the economy would still need to be rebalanced and restructured, and the real push for new initiatives for the economy was unlikely to get under way until the spring, after Li Keqiang formally takes over as the premier.
"If Zhang Gaoli will indeed also take over as the executive vice premier for the economy and thus the second in command for the economy, they are likely to reinvigorate some form of capital/infrastructural investments to ensure the economy will not slow down too much even if the economies of the EU, Japan and the US remain weak," said Mr Tsang.
"The most essential task that needs to be done, rebalance the economy, is likely to be deferred even though rhetoric on this can be expected to be articulated."
A major test for China will be to see how the rest of the global economy performs.
If the global economy rebounds, then China will have an uneventful year and its economy will hum along well, close to the official target.
"But if the euro problem should turn into a real crisis while the US and Japan remain weak, the pressure on the Chinese economy will force the new government to try to be more imaginative.
"It will in any event also need to work out a real plan to deal with the non-performing loans that were generated by the last round of stimulus that are coming to maturity," said Mr Tsang.
The word among Chinese think tanks is that reform is on the cards, especially as the government wrestles with a yawning wealth gap that threatens social stability.
The message from the hugely influential Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Cass) is to expect a smooth transition to a higher growth model in 2014.
Yi Xianrong, a Cass researcher, told Shanghai Securities News that China was likely to set a lower economic growth target for this year to achieve a smooth change in its growth pattern and minimise future risks amid uncertainties in the global economy.
After the 18th Communist Party congress, which installed Mr Xi, there has been a focus on "enhancing quality and efficiency of economic growth front and centre".
"One way of reaching that goal is to push forward urbanisation, which will replace the property sector and provide major impetus for a "de-property-ised" economy," Mr Yi said.
"Accordingly, China will not see stunning expansion in its GDP but will see a much-improved economic growth model in the next year," he said.
His colleague Chen Jiagui said China's economic growth had moved from rapid growth to a new stage.
"We should persist in developing at a stable speed, with steady growth while speeding up economic restructuring and deepening the reform of economic system and paying more attention to the improvement of people's lives."
And the prospects of no reform are anxiety-inducing. "If reform is not continued, the next challenge becomes harder to face. Leaders need to understand that delaying reform makes reform more difficult," Lai Yining of the Guanghua Business School of Management told the local media.
business@thenational.ae
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%204.4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20653hp%20at%205%2C400rpm%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20800Nm%20at%201%2C600-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E0-100kph%20in%204.3sec%0D%3Cbr%3ETop%20speed%20250kph%0D%3Cbr%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20NA%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Q2%202023%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
THE BIO
Age: 33
Favourite quote: “If you’re going through hell, keep going” Winston Churchill
Favourite breed of dog: All of them. I can’t possibly pick a favourite.
Favourite place in the UAE: The Stray Dogs Centre in Umm Al Quwain. It sounds predictable, but it honestly is my favourite place to spend time. Surrounded by hundreds of dogs that love you - what could possibly be better than that?
Favourite colour: All the colours that dogs come in
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 200
Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
Results
6.30pm Madjani Stakes Rated Conditions (PA) I Dh160,000 I 1,900m I Winner: Mawahib, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm Maiden Dh150,000 I 1,400m I Winner One Season, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
7.40pm: Maiden Dh150,000 I 2,000m I Winner Street Of Dreams, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8.15pm Dubai Creek Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,600m I Winner Heavy Metal, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
8.50pm The Entisar Listed I Dh250,000 I 2,000m I Winner Etijaah, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
9.25pm The Garhoud Listed I Dh250,000 I 1,200m I Winner Muarrab, Dane O’Neill, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
10pm Handicap I Dh160,000 I 1,600m I Winner Sea Skimmer, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
McLaren GT specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 630Nm
Price: Dh875,000
On sale: now
1,000 Books to Read Before You Die: A Life-Changing List
James Mustich, Workman
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
