The recession triggered by the outbreak of coronavirus is expected to be deeper than the one that followed the global financial crisis in 2008-09, according to a report from IHS Markit.
The report projected that real world gross domestic product could plunge as much as 2.8 per cent in 2020, compared with a drop of 1.7 per cent in 2009.
“Many key economies will see double-digit declines (at annualised rates) in the second quarter, with the contraction continuing into the third quarter,” IHS' economists Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha and Nariman Behravesh wrote.
The assessment, based on major downgrades to forecasts of the US economy and a collapse in oil prices, presents a “much more pessimistic” outlook to the global growth than its previous forecast on March 17.
IHS also slashed the US 2020 growth forecast, predicting the world's largest economy could potentially contract 5.4 per cent based on recent developments and data.
“The risks remain overwhelmingly on the downside and further downgrades are almost assured,” IHS's economists said.
The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest challenge to the global economy since the 2008 financial crisis. The outbreak has disrupted trade, the travel industry and rattled investors, wiping about $20 trillion (Dh73.4tn) from stock markets globally.
The outbreak, which began in China, has now engulfed Europe and North America. More than 787,000 people have been infected and over 37,800 killed, according to Johns Hopkins University as of Tuesday. More than 166,000 people have recovered.
IHS also forecasts a gloomy economic scenario for a number of countries affected by the pandemic.
Canada's economy is estimated to contract 3.3 per cent this year, before seeing a modest recovery in 2021 due to a deep recession in the US and drop in oil prices, which are currently trading lower as a result of over production and weak demand.
Europe, where the number of infected cases continues to grow rapidly, will see "some of the worst recessions in the developed world". IHS forecasts real GDP drops of approximately 4.5 per cent in the Eurozone and in the UK. Italy will see a decline of 6 per cent or more.
In Japan, the postponement of the summer Tokyo Olympics will make the downturn even deeper with the economy contracting 2.5 per cent this year and a very weak recovery next year.
IHS projects a 2 per cent growth in 2020 for China, followed by a stronger-than-average rebound in 2021, due to its earlier recovery from the pandemic. China's economic activity is expected to have plummeted at a near-double-digit rate in the first quarter.
Growth in emerging markets will also be affected due to a rise in infections and a combination of other factors including a drop in commodity prices and global recession.
“It will likely take two to three years for most economies to return to their pre-pandemic levels of output,” the report noted.
“More troubling is the likelihood that, because of the negative effects of the uncertainty associated with the virus on capital spending, the path of potential GDP will be lower than before. This happened in the wake of the global financial crisis.”
A sizeable and aggressive policy response will help limit the downturn and help in economic recovery, IHS economists said. About $7tn has been committed by G20 nations so far.
The US Senate last week unanimously approved a $2tn rescue plan, the largest in the country's history, to help soften the impact of the coronavirus.
The UAE launched a stimulus package worth Dh126 billion to support the economy and help small businesses while Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's biggest economy, announced 120bn riyals (Dh117.3bn) worth of initiatives to mitigate the impact on its economy.
“We are beginning to see a much more effective fiscal and monetary response in recent days. While these moves are probably not big enough, they will act as circuit breakers and prevent the Covid-19 recession from becoming far worse," IHS economists said.
Racecard
6.35pm: American Business Council – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.10pm: British Business Group – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,200m
7.45pm: CCI France UAE – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
8.20pm: Czech Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,400m
8.55pm: Netherlands Business Council – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
9.30pm: Indian Business and Professional Council – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
More on animal trafficking
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
Fight card
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) v Rey Nacionales (PHI)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROM) v Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR)
Catch 74kg
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) v Omar Hussein (JOR)
Strawweight (Female)
Weronika Zygmunt (POL) v Seo Ye-dam (KOR)
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) v Walid Laidi (ALG)
Lightweight
Leandro Martins (BRA) v Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW)
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) v Sofiane Benchohra (ALG)
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR)
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) v Glen Ranillo (PHI)
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) v Aidan Aguilera (AUS)
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) Sasha Palatnikov (HKG)
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR)
MATCH INFO
Watford 1 (Deulofeu 80' p)
Chelsea 2 (Abraham 5', Pulisic 55')
Results
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Rio Angie, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Trenchard, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Mulfit, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Waady, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 2,000m. Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
9.25pm:Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
RACE CARD
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
How%20I%20connect%20with%20my%20kids%20when%20working%20or%20travelling
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3ELittle%20notes%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMy%20girls%20often%20find%20a%20letter%20from%20me%2C%20with%20a%20joke%2C%20task%20or%20some%20instructions%20for%20the%20afternoon%2C%20and%20saying%20what%20I%E2%80%99m%20excited%20for%20when%20I%20get%20home.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPhone%20call%20check-in%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMy%20kids%20know%20that%20at%203.30pm%20I%E2%80%99ll%20be%20free%20for%20a%20quick%20chat.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHighs%20and%20lows%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EInstead%20of%20a%20%E2%80%9Chow%20was%20your%20day%3F%E2%80%9D%2C%20at%20dinner%20or%20at%20bathtime%20we%20share%20three%20highlights%3B%20one%20thing%20that%20didn%E2%80%99t%20go%20so%20well%3B%20and%20something%20we%E2%80%99re%20looking%20forward%20to.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%20start%2C%20you%20next%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EIn%20the%20morning%2C%20I%20often%20start%20a%20little%20Lego%20project%20or%20drawing%2C%20and%20ask%20them%20to%20work%20on%20it%20while%20I%E2%80%99m%20gone%2C%20then%20we%E2%80%99ll%20finish%20it%20together.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBedtime%20connection%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWake%20up%20and%20sleep%20time%20are%20important%20moments.%20A%20snuggle%2C%20some%20proud%20words%2C%20listening%2C%20a%20story.%20I%20can%E2%80%99t%20be%20there%20every%20night%2C%20but%20I%20can%20start%20the%20day%20with%20them.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUndivided%20attention%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPutting%20the%20phone%20away%20when%20I%20get%20home%20often%20means%20sitting%20in%20the%20car%20to%20send%20a%20last%20email%2C%20but%20leaving%20it%20out%20of%20sight%20between%20home%20time%20and%20bedtime%20means%20you%20can%20connect%20properly.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDemystify%2C%20don%E2%80%99t%20demonise%20your%20job%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHelp%20them%20understand%20what%20you%20do%2C%20where%20and%20why.%20Show%20them%20your%20workplace%20if%20you%20can%2C%20then%20it%E2%80%99s%20not%20so%20abstract%20when%20you%E2%80%99re%20away%20-%20they%E2%80%99ll%20picture%20you%20there.%20Invite%20them%20into%20your%20%E2%80%9Cother%E2%80%9D%20world%20so%20they%20know%20more%20about%20the%20different%20roles%20you%20have.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Fly Etihad or Emirates from the UAE to Moscow from 2,763 return per person return including taxes.
Where to stay
Trips on the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian cost from US$16,995 (Dh62,414) per person, based on two sharing.
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica
Best Agent: Jorge Mendes
Best Club : Liverpool
Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker
Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP
Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart
Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)
Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)
Best Women's Player: Lucy Bronze
Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi
Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)
Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
Dubai Women's Tour teams
Agolico BMC
Andy Schleck Cycles-Immo Losch
Aromitalia Basso Bikes Vaiano
Cogeas Mettler Look
Doltcini-Van Eyck Sport
Hitec Products – Birk Sport
Kazakhstan National Team
Kuwait Cycling Team
Macogep Tornatech Girondins de Bordeaux
Minsk Cycling Club
Pannonia Regional Team (Fehérvár)
Team Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Team Ciclotel
UAE Women’s Team
Under 23 Kazakhstan Team
Wheel Divas Cycling Team
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dresos%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20September%202020%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Vladimir%20Radojevic%20and%20Aleksandar%20Jankovic%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fashion%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24285%2C000%3B%20%24500%2C000%20currently%20being%20raised%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Crowdfunding%2C%20family%2C%20friends%20and%20self-funding%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
The biog
Favourite book: You Are the Placebo – Making your mind matter, by Dr Joe Dispenza
Hobby: Running and watching Welsh rugby
Travel destination: Cyprus in the summer
Life goals: To be an aspirational and passionate University educator, enjoy life, be healthy and be the best dad possible.
MATCH INFO
Group B
Bayern Munich v Tottenham, midnight (Thursday)
