Dubai’s residential market is on the verge of an “imminent” increase in prices as a result of improving economic conditions and a relatively stable supply, according to a new Reidin/Global Capital Partners report.
The study, A Tale in Three Markets, says that recent trends in equity and oil markets and the limited supply of new completed units all point to a citywide increase in property prices in the near future.
The report states that there has traditionally been little correlation between oil and property prices, but this has changed in the past six months as concerns over the former’s effect on property prices has amplified their effect on the market.
It also said that there is usually a “modestly positive” relationship between equity markets and housing markets but, despite a 25 per cent increase in the value of the Dubai Financial Market index from recent lows earlier this year, house prices have remained flat.
Sameer Lakhani, the managing director of Global Capital Partners, says that a reversion to historical means is likely to occur in both cases by an increase in house prices – especially as developers have been restrained in terms of releasing supply.
He said that during the last crash, the market faced a “perfect storm” of a complete lack of demand and a huge oversupply.
More than 60,000 units were launched in 2007 and more than 40,000 in 2008. As a result, more than 60,000 units were completed in 2008, and a further 30,000 or so per year continued to flood the market in 2009-10 during a major slump.
In the most recent cycle, launches and completions have been lower. Fewer than 40,000 units were launched at the most recent peak in 2014. This halved to 20,000 last year and is likely to be lower again this year, Mr Lakhani said. The number of completions has remained at – or below – about 20,000 since 2011.
“There’s a perception issue and there’s a data issue,” he said. He said the perception of oversupply occurs because master developers often state their intention to deliver thousands of homes when announcing a project, but they have become better at pacing delivery to match demand.
“For example, Nshama has said it is going to be a 30,000-unit community when it is complete. Has Nshama actually launched 30,000 units? No – they’re not even close. They’ve launched, I think, barely 3,000.
“This time around, they [developers] are more responsive. If they see a market that is softening, they pull back not only in terms of the number of units but also the number of units they are completing.”
He said there have been shortages – and price rises – within mid-income communities for a few months and that soon, a citywide increase is likely as demand picks up on the back of an improving economy.
Overall, experts remain divided on the current prospects for Dubai’s property market.
Many, such as JLL’s Craig Plumb and Dubizzle, have said that the market has shown signs of bottoming out, with no significant price declines in recent months. Mr Plumb has stated that a recovery in prices is likely to begin either late this year or by early 2017.
But Phidar Advisory remains pessimistic. It has said that demand for new homes from both investors and owner-occupiers remains weak despite the lower supply. It has predicted that prices are likely to continue declining throughout 2017.
mfahy@thenational.ae
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The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Scoreline:
Everton 4
Richarlison 13'), Sigurdsson 28', Digne 56', Walcott 64'
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton)
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Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
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Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
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Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
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Sand storm
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Dust storm
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KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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The%20specs
US election 2020
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Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
Tomorrow 2021
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
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The%20Witcher%20-%20season%20three
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Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
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The Case For Trump
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The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
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1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
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Cricket World Cup League 2 Fixtures
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Tuesday March 8, UAE v Namibia, ICC Academy
Wednesday March 9, UAE v Oman, ICC Academy
Friday March 11, Oman v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Saturday March 12, UAE v Namibia, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri, Muhammad Waseem, CP Rizwan, Vriitya Aravind, Asif Khan, Basil Hameed, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Karthik Meiyappan, Akif Raja, Rahul Bhatia
Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
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Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
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Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
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Lowest Test scores
26 - New Zealand v England at Auckland, March 1955
30 - South Africa v England at Port Elizabeth, Feb 1896
30 - South Africa v England at Birmingham, June 1924
35 - South Africa v England at Cape Town, April 1899
36 - South Africa v Australia at Melbourne, Feb. 1932
36 - Australia v England at Birmingham, May 1902
36 - India v Australia at Adelaide, Dec. 2020
38 - Ireland v England at Lord's, July 2019
42 - New Zealand v Australia in Wellington, March 1946
42 - Australia v England in Sydney, Feb. 1888
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
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Company%20profile
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All%20We%20Imagine%20as%20Light
FIGHT CARD
Bantamweight Hamza Bougamza (MAR) v Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)
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Lighweight Abdullah Mohammed Ali (UAE) v Abdelhak Amhidra (MAR)
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Catchweight 79kg Omar Hussein (PAL) v Souhil Tahiri (ALG)
Middleweight Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Laid Zerhouni (ALG)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
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