Profits for the third quarter at UAE lenders will be pressured by slow growth in lending, hindered by lingering financial uncertainty, an increase in non-performing loans as well as provisions for bad debts, analysts project.
UAE banks are likely to struggle with slow loan growth and a rise in provisions that will put a dent in profits until at least the middle of next year, analysts say.
With the banks' third-quarter earnings on the way, analysts project that lenders will continue to see a rise in non-performing loans and will retain cash on their balance sheets in the form of provisions to account for them.
"The trend now is weaker, and we expect bottom-line growth to be lower," says Deepak Tolani, a banking analyst at Al Mal Capital in Dubai.
The three main factors weighing on bank earnings are: slowing loan growth brought on by the financial crisis; a rise in non-performing loans; and the need to set aside provisions for more bad debts.
Provisioning has become an especially hot topic in the past six months because of the large exposures some banks have to Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi and Brothers and the Saad Group, a pair of Saudi conglomerates that are restructuring their debts.
Meanwhile, banks also face an increase in loan defaults from other retail and commercial customers who have found making regular payments increasingly difficult during the global economic downturn.
In the first half of the year, banks in the UAE put aside almost Dh5 billion (US$1.36bn) in provisions that would otherwise have been booked as profits. This trend led to a decline of 27 per cent in second-quarter profits at listed banks compared with the same period last year.
As banks continue to set aside provisions, the toxin of soured loans will eventually work its way through the system, analysts say, helping financial institutions to return to increased profits.
Yet that process is likely to take many months. Banks must report non-performing loans, or loans on which payments are late, only when they are more than 180 days overdue. Lenders can also reclassify a loan as healthy if they renegotiate its terms with the borrower before the 180-day window closes, restarting the six-month period before the loan is accounted for as non-performing.
These factors allow banks time to contend with a rash of bad loans. But they also mean that the full extent of loan write-offs is not likely to be reflected in financial results until next year.
"I think provisions will be higher [in the third quarter]," says Suleman Soorani, a banking analyst at SICO, an investment bank in Bahrain. "We are in a down cycle, and we've seen provisions increase in the first and second quarters. I think the trend is largely going to continue in the third and fourth quarters."
Janany Vamadeva, a banking analyst at HC Securities in Dubai, says she is looking for non-performing loans and provisions to reach a peak next year before tapering off.
"It takes about six months for bad loans to be reflected in the books because of the 180-day cut-off," she says. "We expect them to peak some time in the middle of next year, but it hinges on the economic environment globally.
'We would expect it to take some time. But it's very hard to say exactly how long."
Stagnant loan growth is another factor analysts are looking at as they piece together profit projections.
Loans and advances at most lenders have declined or risen only moderately in recent quarters as they curtail lending to comply with stricter capital adequacy requirements from the Central Bank. Finding money on international markets has also become more difficult because of the global credit crunch, further cramping lending.
Fees and commissions from new loans, a long-time profit source for banks, have gradually diminished in importance. The emphasis, analysts say, has changed to interest income, which has seen a boost as spreads - the difference between what it costs a bank to borrow money and how much it charges its own borrowers - have widened.
"Net interest margins have increased sharply due to an increase in credit spreads, which UAE banks have been able to pass on to customers," Mr Soorani says.
These increased interest rates have not fully offset increases in provisioning and bad loans at most banks. But they have been a welcome respite during an otherwise harsh period for lenders.
Some banks may also get a profit boost from investment income as global capital markets turn upwards. Many banks across the region have large investments in western stock and fixed-income markets, which faltered during the early part of the year but have since recovered.
"Banks that were heavily invested in capital markets might see benefits as global asset prices increase," Mr Soorani says. "Emirates NBD had a significant portfolio of bonds and other fixed-income assets in regional and international markets, and they might book gains from that."
Banks that do a brisk business with government entities - especially those in Abu Dhabi - also stand to do well in the coming quarters, analysts say. Lenders in Abu Dhabi have benefited from financing the emirate's aggressive expansion, which has continued in spite of the global downturn. This has led to strong loan growth at Abu Dhabi's biggest banks, including First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
Overall, though, analysts expect the next few quarters to be rough for the region's banks. While healthy interest income and investment performance - coupled with continued government spending on infrastructure and property projects - help offset bad loans and slow loan growth somewhat, analysts do not expect to see a major rise in profits any time soon.
As third-quarter bank results start to trickle in - Banque Saudi Fransi is the only bank in the GCC to have reported results so far, notching a 1.9 per cent decline in profits - analysts are looking keenly at trends in provisioning and loan growth. Generally speaking, they do not expect losses, but they also do not foresee major gains.
"We expect that the third quarter is not going to be that great," Ms Vamadeva says. "There's not much loan growth and they're having to take on more [provisioning] charges."
Analysts are also looking carefully at banks' exposures to the Saad and Al Gosaibi groups, which are involved in a series of legal disputes including allegations of a $10bn fraud by Maan al Sanea, a Saudi billionaire who owns the Saad Group, against Al Gosaibi.
Listed banks in the UAE were recently required to disclose their exposures to the groups and Saudi lenders reportedly reached an agreement with the Saad Group to settle debts. But with legal disputes still being thrashed out in London, New York and the Cayman Islands, much remains unclear about how or when lenders will be repaid.
Another unknown facing UAE banks is the fate of loans to property developers and the construction sector. Banks became deeply involved in project financing during Dubai's property boom, which ground to a halt late last year amid major price declines. That has left many lenders with large loans to a struggling sector, and many analysts consequently see its future as inextricably linked with the banks.
"I think higher provisions could continue for two to four more quarters," Mr Soorani says. "In mid-2010 we might see the situation stabilising, but that depends on the overall performance of the real estate market."
@Email:afitch@thenational.ae
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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NEW%20UTILITY%20POLICY%3A%20WHAT%20DOES%20IT%20REGULATE%3F
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
Black Panther
Dir: Ryan Coogler
Starring: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o
Five stars
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD%204
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BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
UAE%20PREMIERSHIP
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Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
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MATCH INFO
Serie A
Juventus v Fiorentina, Saturday, 8pm (UAE)
Match is on BeIN Sports
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
US PGA Championship in numbers
1 Joost Luiten produced a memorable hole in one at the par-three fourth in the first round.
2 To date, the only two players to win the PGA Championship after winning the week before are Rory McIlroy (2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational) and Tiger Woods (2007, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational). Hideki Matsuyama or Chris Stroud could have made it three.
3 Number of seasons without a major for McIlroy, who finished in a tie for 22nd.
4 Louis Oosthuizen has now finished second in all four of the game's major championships.
5 In the fifth hole of the final round, McIlroy holed his longest putt of the week - from 16ft 8in - for birdie.
6 For the sixth successive year, play was disrupted by bad weather with a delay of one hour and 43 minutes on Friday.
7 Seven under par (64) was the best round of the week, shot by Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari on Day 2.
8 Number of shots taken by Jason Day on the 18th hole in round three after a risky recovery shot backfired.
9 Jon Rahm's age in months the last time Phil Mickelson missed the cut in the US PGA, in 1995.
10 Jimmy Walker's opening round as defending champion was a 10-over-par 81.
11 The par-four 11th coincidentally ranked as the 11th hardest hole overall with a scoring average of 4.192.
12 Paul Casey was a combined 12 under par for his first round in this year's majors.
13 The average world ranking of the last 13 PGA winners before this week was 25. Kevin Kisner began the week ranked 25th.
14 The world ranking of Justin Thomas before his victory.
15 Of the top 15 players after 54 holes, only Oosthuizen had previously won a major.
16 The par-four 16th marks the start of Quail Hollow's so-called "Green Mile" of finishing holes, some of the toughest in golf.
17 The first round scoring average of the last 17 major champions was 67.2. Kisner and Thorbjorn Olesen shot 67 on day one at Quail Hollow.
18 For the first time in 18 majors, the eventual winner was over par after round one (Thomas shot 73).
EXPATS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lulu%20Wang%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicole%20Kidman%2C%20Sarayu%20Blue%2C%20Ji-young%20Yoo%2C%20Brian%20Tee%2C%20Jack%20Huston%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Notable salonnières of the Middle East through history
Al Khasan (Okaz, Saudi Arabia)
Tamadir bint Amr Al Harith, known simply as Al Khasan, was a poet from Najd famed for elegies, earning great renown for the eulogy of her brothers Mu’awiyah and Sakhr, both killed in tribal wars. Although not a salonnière, this prestigious 7th century poet fostered a culture of literary criticism and could be found standing in the souq of Okaz and reciting her poetry, publicly pronouncing her views and inviting others to join in the debate on scholarship. She later converted to Islam.
Maryana Marrash (Aleppo)
A poet and writer, Marrash helped revive the tradition of the salon and was an active part of the Nadha movement, or Arab Renaissance. Born to an established family in Aleppo in Ottoman Syria in 1848, Marrash was educated at missionary schools in Aleppo and Beirut at a time when many women did not receive an education. After touring Europe, she began to host salons where writers played chess and cards, competed in the art of poetry, and discussed literature and politics. An accomplished singer and canon player, music and dancing were a part of these evenings.
Princess Nazil Fadil (Cairo)
Princess Nazil Fadil gathered religious, literary and political elite together at her Cairo palace, although she stopped short of inviting women. The princess, a niece of Khedive Ismail, believed that Egypt’s situation could only be solved through education and she donated her own property to help fund the first modern Egyptian University in Cairo.
Mayy Ziyadah (Cairo)
Ziyadah was the first to entertain both men and women at her Cairo salon, founded in 1913. The writer, poet, public speaker and critic, her writing explored language, religious identity, language, nationalism and hierarchy. Born in Nazareth, Palestine, to a Lebanese father and Palestinian mother, her salon was open to different social classes and earned comparisons with souq of where Al Khansa herself once recited.
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
